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re: Ian Observation Thread (Storm Track and Radar inside)
Posted on 9/25/22 at 10:25 am to redstick13
Posted on 9/25/22 at 10:25 am to redstick13
quote:
Ya'll have your own dating site?
just go fishing 
0
Posted on 9/25/22 at 10:27 am to rds dc
“overly simplified”
I’m drowning in this information lol!
All BS aside, I live in southwest La. and the the info provided from the Laura thred was invaluable. Keep up the good work ??.
I’m drowning in this information lol!
All BS aside, I live in southwest La. and the the info provided from the Laura thred was invaluable. Keep up the good work ??.
Posted on 9/25/22 at 10:29 am to sicboy
quote:
Find me a post of someone saying 'it can keep coming this way, I'm good".
Tdsgumbo last year asked for Ida to come here because he needed a tree knocked down
I haven't forgiven him yet
Posted on 9/25/22 at 10:35 am to Joshjrn
quote:
Tornadoes and earthquakes freak me out more than hurricanes, because there tends to be so little warning.
I little off the subject of IAN, but at age 3 (1941), a tornado killed the mother of one of my playmates, and continued across our back yard.
Wherever you are, there is some type of weather there; some good, some bad.
Posted on 9/25/22 at 10:41 am to tide06
quote:
Unless this heads to big bend or Tampa you aren’t gonna be in Destin next week most likely. If it continues to trend GFS it’ll be a mandatory evac and you will get a refund on your deposit.
Destin is currently an outlier and on the traditionally drier western side. Add to this it could be a weakened cat 1 or 2 it’s pretty stupid to suggest a possible mandatory evacuation of Destin.
This post was edited on 9/25/22 at 10:45 am
Posted on 9/25/22 at 10:50 am to deuce985
quote:
Just split the difference between the models right now. They'll eventually start agreeing. I think Big Bend area is a safe bet purely guessing of course.
I agree
Once they can better gauge the speed and how it does or does not get impacted by the trough, we’ll now whether it get pushed east or not.
Posted on 9/25/22 at 10:54 am to OmniPundit
quote:Jackson's 1966 Candlestick tornado killed my dad's boss who tried to drive through it. For a little kid, my folks were just a little bit too... accurate... in describing how it sucked him out of the car and the damage it did to his body.
OmniPundit
To this day I still no-likey bad weather.
Posted on 9/25/22 at 10:59 am to SippyCup
quote:
it’s pretty stupid to suggest a possible mandatory evacuation of Destin.
I wouldn’t bet against it.
This post was edited on 9/25/22 at 11:01 am
Posted on 9/25/22 at 11:08 am to rds dc
GFS back to the Big Bend landfall on this 12Z run. Pretty much in line with the official NHC forecast.
Peak of 942 mb west of Tampa. 974 mb just before landfall.
>
Peak of 942 mb west of Tampa. 974 mb just before landfall.
> This post was edited on 9/25/22 at 11:11 am
Posted on 9/25/22 at 11:10 am to DoctorTechnical
12z GFS back east a bit toward the big bend of FL.
Posted on 9/25/22 at 11:11 am to SlidellCajun
You can see some interesting stuff going on near landfall. You have some competing flow which is what causes the slow down on approach. You also see the trough try to pull it NE into the Big Bend area. It jogs NE on a couple of frames just before landfall. The pull of that trough is what both the GFS and Euro are trying to figure out right now.
Interesting to clearly see the steering mechanisms at work.
Interesting to clearly see the steering mechanisms at work.
Posted on 9/25/22 at 11:13 am to MikeD
quote:
LSU vs Auburn next week may be a wet one
No it will be long gone by 6 pm Saturday. Models have it making landfall at 7 am Friday and they always are a little slow in timing. There will be plenty of dry air on that side of the storm to limit rainfall on that side. The only issue for Auburn with this is does it come a little too close and cause power outages the day before the game. But rain will not be a problem Saturday.
Posted on 9/25/22 at 11:20 am to The Boat
Airline travel waivers are posted for this week, hop over to the travel board if anyone needs help 
Posted on 9/25/22 at 11:21 am to Roll Tide Ravens
Those models make it look like it will be moving slowly for 2 days as it approaches landfall.
Posted on 9/25/22 at 11:26 am to kywildcatfanone
Weakening before landfall good. Slow moving toward landfall bad.
Posted on 9/25/22 at 11:46 am to Jwho77
That dry air is going to get sucked in and choke it out as it nears land.
Posted on 9/25/22 at 11:47 am to Clockwatcher68
Yes. Flooding/surge could be a problem though.
Posted on 9/25/22 at 11:57 am to kywildcatfanone
Am I reading it correctly that the intensity is now forecasted to stay up rather than be impacted and diminished by shear?
Posted on 9/25/22 at 11:58 am to Clockwatcher68
quote:
That dry air is going to get sucked in and choke it out as it nears land.
Posted on 9/25/22 at 12:12 pm to OysterPoBoy
Shear dropped. Got storms everywhere, but they sure aren't organized at this point.
Dry air issues and sucking on some outflow from collapsed storms last night.
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