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re: I think people need to accept that the housing window has closed

Posted on 7/31/26 at 1:31 pm to
Posted by CatfishJohn
Member since Jun 2020
21763 posts
Posted on 7/31/26 at 1:31 pm to
quote:

It’s entirely relevant in that we are talking about statistical over achievers and they are still in that position. If you are an average or slightly above average earner and have kids, you’re screwed.

Remember, this is framed as two successful young people with no kids. As soon as that couple has kids, they’re expenses go up nearly the cost of their housing
]

My point was that two college grads with "good" jobs as you said in the DFW area likely make more than 140k combined, especially as they get closer to 30. A good job in that market pays pretty well.

So sure, they are statistical outliers, I'm just saying those statistical outliers are better off than your portrayal.

The housing market still sucks for first time home buyers, I'm not arguing that.
Posted by CPA Yung Boi
Member since Apr 2026
205 posts
Posted on 7/31/26 at 1:32 pm to
quote:

Yes....not all.


Well I didn’t verify every single listing so I suppose there could be a couple, but the point is you thought you were making a point that you really weren’t
Posted by MC5601
Tyler, Texas
Member since Jan 2010
4309 posts
Posted on 7/31/26 at 1:32 pm to
quote:

Before there were plenty of two bed, one bath “starter style” homes for people. However, those don’t generally do well on the market so builders when they buy a neighborhood build 3/4/5 bedrooms to demands more money.


And when they do build these, it’s an hour commute from the business district and in an area with crime and terrible schools. Time to bulldoze the ghetto and turn it into safe places where productive society can live without spending 2+ hours commuting every day
Posted by Ace Midnight
Between sanity and madness
Member since Dec 2006
96150 posts
Posted on 7/31/26 at 1:33 pm to
quote:

My point is that for the next generation to be homebuyers they will have to think outside of the box and accept that the traditional path is not the high probability play that it once was.


Fair point, but every generation does that.

The GI generation bought the very first mass produced subdivision homes in the 40s and 50s. Boomers bought slightly nicer on slightly larger lots in the 60s and 70s. Xers were buying out those older homes as starters as the younger GIs and Boomers upgraded in the 80s and 90s.

And then - Millennials entered the housing market. They wanted high end finishes and 2500 square feet for 3 people at 25. They didn't want to wait. Or commute. Or make compromises about school. Or condition. Or sweat equity.

So the builders knew to build what would sell. And then there were no more starter homes as those older homes the dead GIs and now dying Boomers are selling off are either in choice locations and upgrade/appreciated or torn down for new.

And there are no more starter homes for Gen Alpha.

#SorrybutagainGenXdidntdothis
Posted by CPA Yung Boi
Member since Apr 2026
205 posts
Posted on 7/31/26 at 1:34 pm to
quote:

My point was that two college grads with "good" jobs as you said in the DFW area likely make more than 140k combined


I mean, this is just untrue. Unless you have a mountain of data that contradicts all of the published data available

Posted by Joshjrn
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2008
33307 posts
Posted on 7/31/26 at 1:34 pm to
quote:

You didn't finish reading my post.

I did read your post. Nothing was specific, unless I was to infer that your house likewise doubled?
Posted by CatfishJohn
Member since Jun 2020
21763 posts
Posted on 7/31/26 at 1:34 pm to
quote:

Before there were plenty of two bed, one bath “starter style” homes for people. However, those don’t generally do well on the market so builders when they buy a neighborhood build 3/4/5 bedrooms to demands more money.



Or they make builder grade tall and skinny zero lot line homes smashed together on one lot. In Tennessee you see 4 houses go where 1 used to be. They "look" fancy, but they're almost always pieces of shite with cheap materials and cheap labor.
Posted by armytiger96
Member since Sep 2007
2855 posts
Posted on 7/31/26 at 1:35 pm to
quote:

Gen Z & Gen A are fricked. Millennials were last generation to have decent access to home ownership.


No they aren't they just need to quit believing all of BS spewed here and in the papers on a daily basis. Prioritize their expenses and live within their means just like every other generation.
Posted by WaydownSouth
Stratton Oakmont
Member since Nov 2018
11302 posts
Posted on 7/31/26 at 1:37 pm to
quote:

Dead serious. Our take home after taxes and retirement is about $13k and spending half of that on housing seems very risky. We want 2-3 kids and daycare is about $1,800 per month per kid so have to factor that in as well


Do you have student loans or car payments?

We are in the same ball park financially and our house was a little over 400k. Would not feel comfortable with a $650k house with 2 kids-- ETA unless you are putting a significant down payment down

Once our kids are old enough to start public schools and we have $1400+ a month in freed up expenses, may be a different story
This post was edited on 7/31/26 at 1:39 pm
Posted by CPA Yung Boi
Member since Apr 2026
205 posts
Posted on 7/31/26 at 1:38 pm to
quote:

And then - Millennials entered the housing market. They wanted high end finishes and 2500 square feet for 3 people at 25. They didn't want to wait. Or commute. Or make compromises about school. Or condition. Or sweat equity.

So the builders knew to build what would sell. And then there were no more starter homes as those older homes the dead GIs and now dying Boomers are selling off are either in choice locations and upgrade/appreciated or torn down for new.


None of this is actually true though. Builders don’t build “starter homes” because they can maximize their profit building 3000 sq foot homes that current homeowners can cash out their equity through private equity or institutional buyers and buy those new builds with cash or huge down payments.

If you asked a builder to build you a 2 bedroom home, it’d likely be MORE expensive per square foot to the buyer because the builder is losing economies of scale and profitability.

I just don’t understand how you can blame young buyers, they have close to zero control over what is going on.
Posted by Tiger4life306
Member since Apr 2016
845 posts
Posted on 7/31/26 at 1:38 pm to
I think the “negative people” are “complaining” because we now live in a world where a lousy cheeseburger meal from 5 Guys costs $20 and a soggy meatball footlong from Subway costs $15, oh and more importantly— a livable, safe starter home costs $300k+ at 6.5% interest rate.

I think most of these “negative people” would love to pay 1980s interest rates for 1980s prices.
Posted by CPA Yung Boi
Member since Apr 2026
205 posts
Posted on 7/31/26 at 1:39 pm to
quote:

No they aren't they just need to quit believing all of BS spewed here and in the papers on a daily basis. Prioritize their expenses and live within their means just like every other generation.


Living within their means includes not owning a home until they’re like 40
Posted by slidingstop
Member since Jan 2025
2525 posts
Posted on 7/31/26 at 1:41 pm to
quote:

Decent new build starter homes in Baton Rouge run at least 300k, more likely closer to 350k. Then the limited stock of old "starter" homes get scooped up as income-generating rentals or by people who can't afford the 300-350k new build.



I didn't realize first time home buyers were geographically limited to living only in BR. If only they could drive a bit further out maybe they'd have more options.
Posted by kywildcatfanone
Wildcat Country!
Member since Oct 2012
140837 posts
Posted on 7/31/26 at 1:42 pm to
If you want to be honest, the socialist democrats want everyone in govt rentals and that is what they are pushing.
Posted by gaetti15
AK
Member since Apr 2013
15598 posts
Posted on 7/31/26 at 1:43 pm to
quote:

If only they could drive a bit further out maybe they'd have more options.


idk about you, but nobody want that smoke from bridge traffic in BR

haven't been to Ascension or Livingston parish in a quick minute, but with the way people complain about everything from there on this board...the options don't look to good
Posted by CatfishJohn
Member since Jun 2020
21763 posts
Posted on 7/31/26 at 1:44 pm to
quote:

I mean, this is just untrue. Unless you have a mountain of data that contradicts all of the published data available



I ChatGPT'ed it -

Median is 65k for college grad in DFW under 30. That means all the unemployed (est. 22k in this bracket) and shitty jobs bring that down. A "good" job would be materially higher than that.

Maybe you and I have a different definition of a "good" job

Posted by slidingstop
Member since Jan 2025
2525 posts
Posted on 7/31/26 at 1:45 pm to
quote:

nobody want that smoke from bridge traffic in BR


fair enough. Then STFU and quit whining.
Posted by CPA Yung Boi
Member since Apr 2026
205 posts
Posted on 7/31/26 at 1:47 pm to
quote:

Median is 65k for college grad in DFW under 30. That means all the unemployed (est. 22k in this bracket) and shitty jobs bring that down.


Do you know how median works?

And 85% of graduates under 30 make less than $100k according to the same ChatGPT. So, as you’d expect, there’s a huge cluster right around that $70k mark. In any event, even at $100k a piece, they are still probably priced out of anything south of Frisco (little Mumbai) and that’s with no kids.
This post was edited on 7/31/26 at 1:50 pm
Posted by baldona
Florida
Member since Feb 2016
24387 posts
Posted on 7/31/26 at 1:48 pm to
quote:


I mean, this is just untrue. Unless you have a mountain of data that contradicts all of the published data available



Again, what data are you going on? You realize that most people in DFW live in areas they can afford. Therefore, if people are living in $600k houses they can afford it because of their jobs.

You keep suggesting that people can't afford the homes, yet home prices are going up?

Posted by CatfishJohn
Member since Jun 2020
21763 posts
Posted on 7/31/26 at 1:49 pm to
If zeros aren’t in there then it’s less dramatic, but I presumed they were.

But still, way more shitty jobs than “good” ones.

And yes, I do. There are way more shitty data points than good data points.

ETA:

I don’t think we have the same definition of a good job. That’s ok
This post was edited on 7/31/26 at 1:52 pm
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