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re: I think people need to accept that the housing window has closed
Posted on 7/31/26 at 1:15 pm to CPA Yung Boi
Posted on 7/31/26 at 1:15 pm to CPA Yung Boi
quote:
If you live in DFW with no kids and a household income of $140k your options are as follows 1. Rent a nice 2 bedroom apartment close to work, within 20 minute commute. About $2500 a month 2. Buy a builder grade 3/2 over an hour away from your office for $375k if you’re lucky. So now you get to spend a couple of hundred dollars a month commuting and you’re bordering house poor 3. Buy a literal shack in south Dallas thats a 30 minute commute and you may get robbed or killed. $325k. And that’s two college graduates with good jobs
So true. My girlfriend and I are in our mid 30s and thinking of getting married soon. We both rent currently and are looking at buying a forever home around flower mound due to the good school district. (Won’t have to send kids to private). It will likely be somewhere around $650k for about 3000 square foot. Even with our combined salary of $280k this is pushing it. Only other option would be to drive over an hour to and from work to save about $100k for a similar home. I have no idea how the “average” American who makes $80k per year functions in this economy. Between mortgage, taxes, insurance, utilities our monthly housing costs will be about $7000 for what most would consider a middle of the road home in a nice, safe neighborhood.
2
Posted on 7/31/26 at 1:16 pm to Dire Wolf
There are outliers.
Im not saying all of those or even a large number are outside of the dark red areas.
Im not saying all of those or even a large number are outside of the dark red areas.
Posted on 7/31/26 at 1:17 pm to Weekend Warrior79
quote:
All joking aside, what I have seen that is changing is people are not planning to temporarily settle. They want the nice 3-4 beds, 2+ baths, in a nice neighborhood right away, and won't consider eating shite for a few years to also make that happen.
How can you say that when there are soooo many renters in America? It’s a way better deal than buying nowadays. And they can invest the housing payment savings into the stock market or a business and get ahead that way. Not through house appreciation.
Oh by the way, the landlords renting those houses out csn only cash flow if they bought in before home prices skyrocketed.
This post was edited on 7/31/26 at 1:18 pm
Posted on 7/31/26 at 1:17 pm to CatfishJohn
quote:
"House prices outpaced income growth over the past 40 years"
Of course, because no one is building small homes anymore. Most homes being built are much bigger than they were years ago, thus more expensive. They are also MUCH nicer.
The avg new build today, is nicer than most $1-2 mil homes 20 years ago.
Posted on 7/31/26 at 1:18 pm to Odysseus32
Private equity companies killed the housing market.
They want everyone to rent forever.
They want everyone to rent forever.
Posted on 7/31/26 at 1:18 pm to fightin tigers
quote:
There are outliers.
Im not saying all of those or even a large number are outside of the dark red areas.
Nearly all of what you posted were tear downs, townhouses, in the ghetto, or over an hour from downtown
Posted on 7/31/26 at 1:18 pm to MC5601
quote:
It will likely be somewhere around $650k for about 3000 square foot. Even with our combined salary of $280k this is pushing it.
I can't tell if you are serious or not
ETA: This income is more normal for 2 adults working in "downtown" DFW and Nashville. Who the hell do you guys think are "affording" these? Its not $140k incomes for 2 people in expensive downtown metros.
Its 2 professionals that are starting off making $60-80k out of college and by the time they are 5 years in are clearing $200-300k.
That's how you afford a $3000/month apt or a $600k home in nicer areas.
This post was edited on 7/31/26 at 1:23 pm
Posted on 7/31/26 at 1:23 pm to baldona
quote:
Who the hell do you guys think are "affording" these?
Investors or people who bought them pre 2020 mostly
quote:
Its 2 professionals that are starting off making $60-80k out of college and by the time they are 5 years in are clearing $200-300k.
This is like 15% of people…. And that’s adjusted for DFW being a metro the outpaces national wage statistics
This post was edited on 7/31/26 at 1:25 pm
Posted on 7/31/26 at 1:24 pm to Odysseus32
I'm 39. My first real job was 33k in DC. When I left DC I went into the corporate world and moved around over 6 years to advance my career. Didn't own my first house until I was 31. Decided to start my own business, sold that house and rented for 4 years. Built a house for 820k, sold it 3 years later. Bought a lot and paid it off while I'm again renting. About to build another house.
The housing window hasn't closed, but the sacrifices it takes to achieve the same results has grown.
The housing window hasn't closed, but the sacrifices it takes to achieve the same results has grown.
Posted on 7/31/26 at 1:24 pm to CPA Yung Boi
quote:
How many people under 30 do you think are making more than $70k?
With "good" jobs in the DFW market? Probably a lot. People with "good" jobs closer to 30 it probably even higher percentage.
quote:
Only a quarter of ALL Americans make at least $75k
Sure, but irrelevant to the subsection of the population you pulled out.
Posted on 7/31/26 at 1:25 pm to baldona
I can almost bet that 90% of the guys that say "how do they afford" have a wife that doesn't have a good income. It aint easy if you are far and away the the bread winner making $100-150k, or less.
But you have a wife that's doing well, bringing in $80-200k in medical, lawyer, tech, etc. and its a game changer financially.
(fwiw I don't, we just own a business together).
But my buddies that are engineers or military officers, theres a big difference in wealth between the ones with stay at home wives or teachers, compared to the ones with NP, lawyer, etc wives doing well.
But you have a wife that's doing well, bringing in $80-200k in medical, lawyer, tech, etc. and its a game changer financially.
(fwiw I don't, we just own a business together).
But my buddies that are engineers or military officers, theres a big difference in wealth between the ones with stay at home wives or teachers, compared to the ones with NP, lawyer, etc wives doing well.
Posted on 7/31/26 at 1:27 pm to baldona
quote:
Yes, it is.
No, it isn't. It is silly to try and trivialize the issue to a singular thing. Nobody has argued the rates didn't impact things, but the rate alone is not the problem. Considering people have brought up multiple times that small starter homes are no longer being built, price to income growth, etc. The issues are for more than just interest rates.
quote:
If interest rates had never gone below 6%, today would be different.
If interest rates were still 3%, housing affordability would still be different.
What a bold prediction
. Things would be different if things were different. What's interesting, if the rates were around 3% still, we'd actually be in line where the median household income would be right in line witht he 28% rule of affordability for the median housing price.
This post was edited on 7/31/26 at 1:31 pm
Posted on 7/31/26 at 1:27 pm to baldona
quote:
It will likely be somewhere around $650k for about 3000 square foot. Even with our combined salary of $280k this is pushing it. I can't tell if you are serious or not
Dead serious. Our take home after taxes and retirement is about $13k and spending half of that on housing seems very risky. We want 2-3 kids and daycare is about $1,800 per month per kid so have to factor that in as well
Posted on 7/31/26 at 1:27 pm to Judnnc
quote:
All joking aside, what I have seen that is changing is people are not planning to temporarily settle. They want the nice 3-4 beds, 2+ baths, in a nice neighborhood right away, and won't consider eating shite for a few years to also make that happen.
that is pretty much how every home has been built for the past many decades though.
This is what I believe is the bigger, underlying issue.
Before there were plenty of two bed, one bath “starter style” homes for people. However, those don’t generally do well on the market so builders when they buy a neighborhood build 3/4/5 bedrooms to demands more money.
Another issue I firmly believe is the HOA/builderhoods we have.
Posted on 7/31/26 at 1:28 pm to baldona
quote:
They are also MUCH nicer.
The avg new build today, is nicer
I disagree. It's usually smoke an mirrors. Fancy appliances, cool floorplans, nice "looking" materials.
But I think actually quality of the homes is way down.
Of course there are exceptions.
Posted on 7/31/26 at 1:28 pm to CatfishJohn
quote:
Sure, but irrelevant to the subsection of the population you pulled out.
It’s entirely relevant in that we are talking about statistical over achievers and they are still in that position. If you are an average or slightly above average earner and have kids, you’re screwed.
Remember, this is framed as two successful young people with no kids. As soon as that couple has kids, they’re expenses go up nearly the cost of their housing
Posted on 7/31/26 at 1:28 pm to CPA Yung Boi
quote:
In growing metros it’s nearly impossible for young people to buy.
Why?
quote:
The neighborhood I’m currently renting in has a median home price of nearly $600k for 2k-2.2k square feet
Why?
quote:
Anything under half a million gets scooped up for cash or quick close.
Ah - you DO understand how markets work!
quote:
And if it’s 1,200 square feet it just gets bought for the lot and torn down.
Because it is worth more with new construction, correct?
quote:
Is it impossible? Well of course it isn’t but it’s a hell of a lot harder than it was even 5 years ago when I bought the property I’m currently renting out.
And as supply and demand wax and wane, it will settle into a new baseline. Incomes will go up, even if inflated, and the cycle starts again.
Posted on 7/31/26 at 1:28 pm to CPA Yung Boi
quote:
Nearly all
Yes....not all.
Posted on 7/31/26 at 1:29 pm to baldona
quote:
But my buddies that are engineers or military officers, theres a big difference in wealth between the ones with stay at home wives or teachers, compared to the ones with NP, lawyer, etc wives doing well.
Thought provoking analysis. Who would have thought couple that make way more money have way more wealth. Crazy!
Posted on 7/31/26 at 1:30 pm to Odysseus32
Starter homes way way west of Houston go for $250k , 1600 sq ft, …oh wait , that’s right , one’s idea of a starter home is 3500 sq ft in The Heights . People’s expectations are psychologically off
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