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re: Hurricane Season - Watching WCAB & Gulf for Late Week Development

Posted on 8/23/21 at 3:34 pm to
Posted by Draconian Sanctions
Markey's bar
Member since Oct 2008
86718 posts
Posted on 8/23/21 at 3:34 pm to
How far out would something like that be? More than 10 days?
Posted by SWLATiger
Lake Charles
Member since Nov 2007
412 posts
Posted on 8/23/21 at 3:51 pm to
I'm with ya...they were supposed to start interior drywall repairs today from Laura and no showed...I'm DONE....
Posted by Klingler7
Houston
Member since Nov 2009
12429 posts
Posted on 8/23/21 at 5:03 pm to
I second the motion for Rds dc to start a new thread concerning TC potentials going forward.
This post was edited on 8/23/21 at 5:09 pm
Posted by Clockwatcher68
Youngsville
Member since May 2006
7280 posts
Posted on 8/23/21 at 5:17 pm to
Posted by sledgehammer
SWLA
Member since Oct 2020
5575 posts
Posted on 8/23/21 at 5:38 pm to
quote:

I'm with ya...they were supposed to start interior drywall repairs today from Laura and no showed...I'm DONE....


I just finished up with insurance and house repairs last month (Jeff Davis Parish). I told my family, “it’s all back together just in time for hurricane season.” All we can do is prepare and pray it misses us.
Posted by Oates Mustache
Member since Oct 2011
24386 posts
Posted on 8/23/21 at 5:53 pm to
quote:

dukke v


Why can't this guy be banned from weather threads?
Posted by notiger1997
Metairie
Member since May 2009
60856 posts
Posted on 8/23/21 at 5:57 pm to
quote:

Why can't this guy be banned from weather threads?



I say ban him from all boards and threads
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
42856 posts
Posted on 8/23/21 at 6:39 pm to

2. A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea is expected to form a
broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by
late week. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to be
favorable for gradual development while the system moves
west-northwestward to northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
50% for the Caribbean wave now
Posted by PetroBabich
Donetsk Oblast
Member since Apr 2017
4931 posts
Posted on 8/23/21 at 7:03 pm to
Yeah that shite has not been too accurate
Posted by TheFonz
Somewhere in Louisiana
Member since Jul 2016
22018 posts
Posted on 8/23/21 at 7:05 pm to
El Niño is Spanish for.....THE NINO!
This post was edited on 8/23/21 at 7:07 pm
Posted by THE MAN 38
On top of your wife
Member since Aug 2021
66 posts
Posted on 8/23/21 at 7:06 pm to
Laviska stands for the viska
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
97091 posts
Posted on 8/23/21 at 7:22 pm to
Latest GFS has one crossing Cuba, then Keys, and then taking the Katrina track into New Orleans. That one is a long way out. Also a slight northward trend on the current potential Caribbean storm but still takes it into Mexico

Peak season is here. Buckle up baws
Posted by DVinBR
Member since Jan 2013
14709 posts
Posted on 8/24/21 at 1:23 am to
quote:

Additional features of note in the long-term forecast is the fact that the models are trying to produce some tropical disturbances in the Gulf of Mexico toward the weekend. However, model consensus is very uncertain and there are many differences in the models on timing, strength, and location of these potential disturbances. This is something that we will be monitoring in the next few days closely, but likely the main impact from any development, looking at the current models, toward the end of the week would be increased rainfall chances at this point. Regardless, we are steadily approaching the peak of hurricane season, so it is always a good idea to update your hurricane plans and check your supplies. MSW
Posted by stout
Porte du Lafitte
Member since Sep 2006
175862 posts
Posted on 8/24/21 at 7:36 am to
The GFS now shows Brownsville TX getting two storms back to back on the 30th then the 5th

That would suck
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
20620 posts
Posted on 8/24/21 at 7:41 am to
NHC up to 60%. This system will be tricky but if it stays north and/or organizes quickly then models do show a setup that would allow it to take a more northerly track through the Gulf. If it forms farther south or slower then it could get pinned down in the BOC.
Posted by Klingler7
Houston
Member since Nov 2009
12429 posts
Posted on 8/24/21 at 9:49 am to
Rds dc, why do we not have Invest 99L ? I can’t find info on eastern Caribbean system.
This post was edited on 8/24/21 at 9:50 am
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
125958 posts
Posted on 8/24/21 at 2:07 pm to
New euro weak east loaded TS “landfall” pecan island
Posted by BallsEleven
Member since Mar 2019
6163 posts
Posted on 8/24/21 at 2:10 pm to
The model trends the past 24 hrs for the first storm aren't ideal.

The good thing is that for now, they keep it no stronger than a TS.
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
45713 posts
Posted on 8/24/21 at 2:49 pm to
Yep, this afternoon’s trends are not Texas and Louisiana’s friend. It’s still a week or more away so a shite ton is going to change.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36408 posts
Posted on 8/24/21 at 2:55 pm to
quote:

Yep, this afternoon’s trends are not Texas and Louisiana’s friend. It’s still a week or more away so a shite ton is going to change.


Yeah but all ive seen is in basic agreement with the scenario rds explained earlier on this page.

Right now is about getting big picture awareness of the steering players.

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