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re: Hurricane Season - TD9 - Oh Boy
Posted on 10/6/26 at 2:26 pm to rds dc
Posted on 10/6/26 at 2:26 pm to rds dc
Greetings all,
I’m brand spanking new to this hurricane business. Now that this storm is a 100% certainty, at what point is a good time to go to my local Publix to stock up on bread and milk? I’m hearty midwestern folk used to heavy snowstorms, so I’m not scared about some wind and rain. Lol!
Thanks in advance.
I’m brand spanking new to this hurricane business. Now that this storm is a 100% certainty, at what point is a good time to go to my local Publix to stock up on bread and milk? I’m hearty midwestern folk used to heavy snowstorms, so I’m not scared about some wind and rain. Lol!
Thanks in advance.
Posted on 10/6/26 at 2:26 pm to TDsngumbo
I want to know what the AI models are seeing that the physics based models aren't because some of those AI models are dead set on the panhandle of Florida
Posted on 10/6/26 at 2:26 pm to Bernie Bierman
quote:
Now that this storm is a 100% certainty, at what point is a good time to go to my local Publix to stock up on bread and milk?
Now
But even more important than bread and milk is beer
Posted on 10/6/26 at 2:27 pm to notiger1997
Posted on 10/6/26 at 2:27 pm to Bernie Bierman
Is your wife/gf lactating by chance?
Posted on 10/6/26 at 2:28 pm to trussthetruzz
quote:
I'll get the downvoting started
Well thats not good.
Posted on 10/6/26 at 2:28 pm to gaetti15
quote:
I want to know what the AI models are seeing that the physics based models aren't because some of those AI models are dead set on the panhandle of Florida
I forgot about that, but you're right. And I think I remember the AI models really being pretty decent last year. Were they not?
Posted on 10/6/26 at 2:29 pm to TDsngumbo
Explain to the casual thread follower what we’re looking like now?
Posted on 10/6/26 at 2:29 pm to Cosmo
Terrebonne/Lafourche as usual. Sigh SMH
Posted on 10/6/26 at 2:29 pm to Bernie Bierman
quote:
what point is a good time to go to my local Publix
If they no longer sell hurricane cakes, they don't deserve your business.
Posted on 10/6/26 at 2:30 pm to ell_13
quote:
by BrianKellysRealtor
quote:LesMilesRealtor
Whose alter are you?
Posted on 10/6/26 at 2:31 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
I forgot about that, but you're right. And I think I remember the AI models really being pretty decent last year. Were they not?
yeah exactly.
Based on Levi's comments, faster developing and stronger storms go further east while slower, weaker storms deal with shear and stay more west (like the GFS 12Z).
I'm wondering if AI is seeing this faster development so more eastern track.
If you just looked at the physics operational models, you'll see anything from Houma to Mobile Bay...but a good chunk of the AI models have AL/MS border to Appalachicola
This post was edited on 10/6/26 at 2:32 pm
Posted on 10/6/26 at 2:31 pm to trussthetruzz
Well thats about 9 or 10 H shifts to the west. Send that shite back to florida.
Posted on 10/6/26 at 2:31 pm to gaetti15
quote:
I want to know what the AI models are seeing that the physics based models aren't because some of those AI models are dead set on the panhandle of Florida
if i were to guess they are analytically looking at past storm data given the conditions; doubt its running an actual empirical model like the GFS where you need actual physically measured input variables but i really am not sure
Posted on 10/6/26 at 2:32 pm to Cosmo
Are we in nowcasting mode? Should I bring my tomato plants in?
Posted on 10/6/26 at 2:34 pm to CaptainsWafer
quote:
Explain to the casual thread follower what we’re looking like now?
I've got my layman's thoughts but I lack the proper TD qualifications and credentials to be able to expound upon them here. I'll leave that to rds or legend.
Posted on 10/6/26 at 2:34 pm to Houmatiger0626
I guess I might as well start planning on pulling the RV off Grand Isle if that holds.
Posted on 10/6/26 at 2:36 pm to fightin tigers
Posted on 10/6/26 at 2:36 pm to YOURADHERE
quote:
I guess I might as well start planning on pulling the RV off Grand Isle if that holds.
That’s what I’m trying to figure out, tomorrow is the only day I’ll have time to run down and get stuff picked up at my camp.
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