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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Season - NHC Tracking TD7 but Very Low End Gulf Threat
Posted on 8/19/22 at 4:11 pm to LegendInMyMind
Posted on 8/19/22 at 4:11 pm to LegendInMyMind
Still not named yet! 
1
Posted on 8/19/22 at 4:12 pm to lsuman25
quote:
7 day rain map
And the good news is that total is fairly spread out.
This post was edited on 8/19/22 at 4:14 pm
Posted on 8/19/22 at 4:14 pm to Oates Mustache
quote:
Still not named yet!
Patience. Danielle ain't gonna give it up like some slutty chick at last call. She's a lady. She's going to make you earn it.
Posted on 8/19/22 at 4:15 pm to deltaland
Posted on 8/19/22 at 4:16 pm to Bobby OG Johnson
Tropical Storm Warnings were just thrown!
Posted on 8/19/22 at 4:17 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Danielle ain't gonna give it up like some slutty chick at last call. She's a lady.
You must not know any Danielles
Posted on 8/19/22 at 4:22 pm to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
You must not know any Danielles
Was about to post this. Danielle is a common stripper or twin peaks waitress name
Posted on 8/19/22 at 4:24 pm to RummelTiger
quote:
Tropical Storm Warnings were just thrown!
Posted on 8/19/22 at 4:24 pm to Midtiger farm
quote:
What's the matter your yard is dying?
No. Our lakes are down several feet.
Posted on 8/19/22 at 4:56 pm to rds dc
This will be an interesting case study of a system that might be too small for the global models to properly resolve. The 12z models aren't too interested in this system and all of them appear to prevent the wave axis from rolling over and closing off a surface circulation.
12z Euro for 12z tomorrow shows some light and variable winds right near the coast. Enough to close this off for a name? The background flow across the Gulf doesn't look like there is a TS down there.
12z GFS for the same time. Even less of a kink in the flow than the Euro.
The system lost all it's convection overnight and there were no real signs of a surface circulation this morning before the current convective burst. It takes numerous rounds of convection to close off a surface circulation along a wave axis. The cloud tops associated with the MLC are currently warming and it appears that the most active convection is well NE of the area that would be favored for closing off a LLC.
All that said, the NHC is convinced this will get organized enough to get a name. It is certainly possible that the global models are just missing the system do to the resolution restraints.
12z Euro for 12z tomorrow shows some light and variable winds right near the coast. Enough to close this off for a name? The background flow across the Gulf doesn't look like there is a TS down there.
12z GFS for the same time. Even less of a kink in the flow than the Euro.
The system lost all it's convection overnight and there were no real signs of a surface circulation this morning before the current convective burst. It takes numerous rounds of convection to close off a surface circulation along a wave axis. The cloud tops associated with the MLC are currently warming and it appears that the most active convection is well NE of the area that would be favored for closing off a LLC.
All that said, the NHC is convinced this will get organized enough to get a name. It is certainly possible that the global models are just missing the system do to the resolution restraints.
Posted on 8/19/22 at 5:00 pm to rds dc
quote:
I really don't like the PTC but I guess someone in Brownsville might get caught off guard by some TS force gust
Think about the poor twigs.
Posted on 8/19/22 at 5:02 pm to rds dc
quote:
NHC is convinced this will get organized enough to get a name
Of course they do.
Posted on 8/19/22 at 5:05 pm to rds dc
Change your title to Danielle might make it gusty in Brownsville
Posted on 8/19/22 at 7:22 pm to RummelTiger
Hey Rummy, I’ve got a kid at st Ed’s. Any recs for restaurants in Austin?
Posted on 8/19/22 at 7:28 pm to Oates Mustache
We're getting more and more ensemble support for the lead wave coming off Cape Verde in a couple days.
This post was edited on 8/19/22 at 9:25 pm
Posted on 8/19/22 at 7:32 pm to LegendInMyMind
Posted on 8/19/22 at 7:41 pm to Oates Mustache
Tell it to the the models, baw, not me.
Posted on 8/19/22 at 7:59 pm to LegendInMyMind
Luckily, at least for Louisiana, these runs keep shoving out out to sea or make it an East Coast issue. I'm hoping it stays the hell away.
Posted on 8/19/22 at 8:10 pm to Oates Mustache
Yeah, the Gulf hasn't been in play with that system at all when it shows up on the GFS.
Posted on 8/19/22 at 9:28 pm to junior
Matt’s is the big Mexican place in austin, ocho is sushi place abs excellent, new restaurant called Loro, get the kettle corn with brisket ends, all the forks are good.
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