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re: Hurricane Season - NHC 92L in BOC 90%

Posted on 10/6/26 at 9:42 am to
Posted by HubbaBubba
North of DFW, TX
Member since Oct 2010
53024 posts
Posted on 10/6/26 at 9:42 am to
GFS has changed significantly since last evening when it was predicting a Cat 3 coming in between New Orleans and Mobile. Now showing it as a tropical storm.

Posted by jmarto1
Houma, LA/ Las Vegas, NV
Member since Mar 2008
39471 posts
Posted on 10/6/26 at 9:43 am to
quote:

I’ll suck your dick if we get a hurricane this week.

I did not have homosexual erotic thoughts out loud by OysterPoBoy on my hurricane thread bingo card.



I mean, this is better than a ban bet no? Lets get the parameters set
Posted by East Coast Band
Member since Nov 2010
67281 posts
Posted on 10/6/26 at 9:47 am to
quote:

Whats the ones showing cat 2 or 3? I dont like those. Can we disregard them?

You'd make a terrible influencer then. Your follower count would be terrible. To be one, you must hope for worst case scenarios and wish cast doom and gloom.
Posted by baldona
Florida
Member since Feb 2016
24558 posts
Posted on 10/6/26 at 9:47 am to
Landfall is looking like this Saturday Oct 11 right? When will this thing become somewhat predictable? Its not even a storm yet right?
Posted by fightin tigers
Downtown Prairieville
Member since Mar 2008
80499 posts
Posted on 10/6/26 at 9:47 am to
~2.2 MMBBLS of refining capacity in that path

(Million barrels is the units)
This post was edited on 10/6/26 at 9:58 am
Posted by LNCHBOX
70448
Member since Jun 2009
89702 posts
Posted on 10/6/26 at 9:48 am to
quote:

Landfall is looking like this Saturday Oct 11 right?


Saturday is the 10th, so...
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
104745 posts
Posted on 10/6/26 at 9:53 am to
quote:

reasonable and non-sensationalist forecaster



quote:

Seems like a baw that would post here.



Does not check out
Posted by Tyga Woods
South Central Jupiter Island, FL
Member since Sep 2016
43257 posts
Posted on 10/6/26 at 9:55 am to
What are the catfish saying?
Posted by dhuck20
SCLSU Fan
Member since Oct 2012
23877 posts
Posted on 10/6/26 at 9:56 am to
quote:

~2.2 MMBBLS of refining capacity
You know it’s getting to be an interesting thread when you’re having to google every term.

This could be about oil rigging and I wouldn’t have a clue

Holy shite, it is oil.
This post was edited on 10/6/26 at 10:02 am
Posted by alphaandomega
Tuscaloosa-Here to Serve
Member since Aug 2012
17448 posts
Posted on 10/6/26 at 10:16 am to

Anyone in the area in the current spaghetti models that has a contact for a location we could setup (if needed) please email me at info@heretoserve.org.






Below picture from our Prairieville trip

Posted by fightin tigers
Downtown Prairieville
Member since Mar 2008
80499 posts
Posted on 10/6/26 at 10:18 am to
quote:

Holy shite, it is oil.



Sorry, I figured refining capacity gave that away. But admittedly there are lots of different kinds of refining.
Posted by danilo
Member since Nov 2008
26690 posts
Posted on 10/6/26 at 10:18 am to
Cajun Navy fueling up?
Posted by Dtbtiger
Member since Oct 2024
325 posts
Posted on 10/6/26 at 10:20 am to
quote:

Below picture from our Prairieville trip

Id say the closer to the coast for hurricanes, the better. Prairieville seems pretty far from where the need actually would be the most helpful
Posted by Funky Tide 8
Bayou Chico
Member since Feb 2009
57723 posts
Posted on 10/6/26 at 10:23 am to
Hope I get to fish this weekend.
Posted by LaBR4
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2005
54043 posts
Posted on 10/6/26 at 10:23 am to







First storm with Ozempic Felicia?

The Original
This post was edited on 10/6/26 at 10:34 am
Posted by artompkins
Orange Beach, Al
Member since May 2010
6407 posts
Posted on 10/6/26 at 10:23 am to
My wife this morning was like, are we still going to the shrimp festival? Lol
Posted by BigPerm30
Member since Aug 2011
32534 posts
Posted on 10/6/26 at 10:23 am to
There’s no way to accurately predict the track when there is no developed system yet. The best they can do is that it’s going to hit some portion of the southern gulf.
Posted by SWLA92
SWLA
Member since Feb 2015
5439 posts
Posted on 10/6/26 at 10:24 am to
I think that’s a past picture of a previous storm they helped on. alphaandomega and his guys do an amazing job. Yall keep up the good work!
Posted by tide06
Member since Oct 2011
25279 posts
Posted on 10/6/26 at 10:24 am to
quote:

Theres been 4-6” of rain in October so far all through the panhandle and it’s raining again this morning so I’d say at least where I am saturated is probably an understatement.
soil moisture in coastal AL is about 25%. Not saturated by any means.

I mean thats cool for coastal AL, but I was at ~40% where I am yesterday and with 4-6" of rain still being processed and rain falling as we speak into my culverts that already have 8-12" of water standing currently Ill go ahead and continue to be concerned with a storm headed in Friday.
quote:

Regardless of where this system lands or intensity we will have surface flooding at least in my area not to mention any storm surge with the drainage pathways already full
won’t have anything to do with soil saturation. Flash flooding can happen anywhere/anytime solely based on rainfall rates over time.

I agree flash flooding can happen anywhere, how does your statement make sense overall when the rain projected to fall will not have anywhere to go because drainage and retention systems are already full or processing what has already happened recently?
quote:

Yes, soil saturation is a primary driver of flooding, as saturated ground cannot absorb additional rainfall, forcing water to run off the surface and into waterways. Recent research confirms that pre-event soil moisture is often a stronger predictor of flood severity than the intensity of the storm itself, with wet soils increasing flood peaks by 2 to 4.5 times.

DRI: Link between soil saturation and flooding
Posted by Glock17
Member since Oct 2007
23219 posts
Posted on 10/6/26 at 10:32 am to
quote:

, are we still going to the shrimp festival? Lol


We supposed to head to OB Thursday-Sunday.... we were going to get the festival Friday night. Not looking good... supposed to have trip insurance for the condo but not sure how that even works.
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