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re: Hurricane Season - NHC 92L in BOC 80%

Posted on 10/5/26 at 12:25 pm to
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
14730 posts
Posted on 10/5/26 at 12:25 pm to
Clear line between the fall weather in the rest of the US and the continuation of the normal 5 month summer along the Gulf coast.

Can also see where the moisture is gathering in the BOC for whatever mess will eventually move north and northeast.

And Rachel is a big circulation off of Pacific coast of Mexico.

Posted by PUB
New Orleans
Member since Sep 2017
21651 posts
Posted on 10/5/26 at 12:34 pm to
Just like 10 inches of rain was hitting this past weekend and we were going to flood several feet.
Posted by paperwasp
2x HRV 2025 Poster of the Year
Member since Sep 2014
31641 posts
Posted on 10/5/26 at 12:35 pm to
quote:

So these are showing something hitting around Saturday?

Yes, but there is a "competing" front that may push southward near the coast, complicating things.

It will most likely weaken, and steering currents could drive it elsewhere. Even if a strong storm is avoided, heavy rains may affect the Gulf Coast.

As usual, we won't know until these models resolve, closer to the weekend. Best thing to do now is just be aware.

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Posted by gaetti15
AK
Member since Apr 2013
15821 posts
Posted on 10/5/26 at 12:42 pm to
If i had a gun to my hand asking landfall location given the current set up the models are showing, its going to go more East than anticipated. So between MS/AL border,Mobile and Destin.

Posted by DVinBR
Member since Jan 2013
16052 posts
Posted on 10/5/26 at 12:48 pm to
The big thing the models agree on is that there will be that front hugging the coast this weekend

That gives a good chance of this thing catching strong westerly shear and merging with that front
This post was edited on 10/5/26 at 12:50 pm
Posted by Crawdaddy
Slidell. The jewel of Louisiana
Member since Sep 2006
19428 posts
Posted on 10/5/26 at 12:48 pm to
Damn it. Going camping on Friday for a week in Chattanooga area
Posted by gaetti15
AK
Member since Apr 2013
15821 posts
Posted on 10/5/26 at 12:50 pm to
quote:

That gives a good chance of this thing catching strong easterly shear and merging with that front


Yeah I think its going to be very zeta like not saying itll be cat 3 at landfall)
This post was edited on 10/5/26 at 12:51 pm
Posted by Tarps99
Lafourche Parish
Member since Apr 2017
13683 posts
Posted on 10/5/26 at 12:50 pm to
quote:

If i had a gun to my hand asking landfall location given the current set up the models are showing, its going to go more East than anticipated. So between MS/AL border,Mobile and Destin.


Chicken ought to open a weather betting site.

Between this and the other big bet on page 1, Chicken could cash in.
Posted by gaetti15
AK
Member since Apr 2013
15821 posts
Posted on 10/5/26 at 12:51 pm to
quote:

Chicken ought to open a weather betting site.

Between this and the other big bet on page 1, Chicken could cash in.


At the same time you'll shite on the weatherman too

Posted by CCT
LA
Member since Dec 2006
7069 posts
Posted on 10/5/26 at 12:51 pm to
TD crypto coin!!
Posted by paperwasp
2x HRV 2025 Poster of the Year
Member since Sep 2014
31641 posts
Posted on 10/5/26 at 12:54 pm to
quote:

its going to go more East than anticipated

I think that's a logical guess.

Levi Cowan believes it depends on an upper shortwave coming out of Texas (see below).




If the storm moves north quickly it could intensify because of that, and if it's slower, the shortwave could eventually dissipate and force the storm to hang around the Gulf for a while (maybe into next week).
Posted by trussthetruzz
Mississippi
Member since Sep 2020
10088 posts
Posted on 10/5/26 at 12:56 pm to
quote:

Just like 10 inches of rain was hitting this past weekend and we were going to flood several feet.




Posted by LouisianaLonghorn
Austin, Texas
Member since Jan 2006
16146 posts
Posted on 10/5/26 at 12:59 pm to
quote:

Amateur

Shoulda booked punta cana


We have use of a friend's beach house in Rosemary Beach for free. We couldn't pass that up.
Posted by chRxis
None of your fricking business
Member since Feb 2008
28429 posts
Posted on 10/5/26 at 1:15 pm to
quote:

If the storm moves north quickly it could intensify because of that, and if it's slower, the shortwave could eventually dissipate and force the storm to hang around the Gulf for a while (maybe into next week).

so how does this have Cancun looking from Friday to next Tuesday?
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21830 posts
Posted on 10/5/26 at 1:15 pm to
quote:

12z gfs with a cat 1 into biloxi


12z Euro much slower with a weak system.

Split the difference

Posted by notiger1997
Metairie
Member since May 2009
62110 posts
Posted on 10/5/26 at 1:21 pm to

Just bring on a cool front in a hurry.
This post was edited on 10/5/26 at 1:22 pm
Posted by Ace Midnight
Between sanity and madness
Member since Dec 2006
96547 posts
Posted on 10/5/26 at 1:26 pm to
quote:

tuna fish


You can just get that at the store, yeah?
Posted by SWLA92
SWLA
Member since Feb 2015
5429 posts
Posted on 10/5/26 at 1:28 pm to
Gfs is the only model showing a hurricane. Could it be a hurricane sure but most models have this a tropical storm mess at best. A lot will change in the next few days
This post was edited on 10/5/26 at 1:30 pm
Posted by dukke v
PLUTO
Member since Jul 2006
216855 posts
Posted on 10/5/26 at 1:29 pm to
Going east and may get to a tropical storm.
Posted by tunechi
Member since Jun 2009
10582 posts
Posted on 10/5/26 at 1:38 pm to
frick
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