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Started By
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re: Hurricane Season - 91L - Flash Flood Warnings for S. LA, Worst Rain Moving out Later Today
Posted on 6/5/19 at 8:55 pm to Prominentwon
Posted on 6/5/19 at 8:55 pm to Prominentwon
New Orleans braces for a deep thrust of an impact
0
Posted on 6/5/19 at 8:56 pm to lsucm10
quote:
Live weather report from Punta Cana. Partly cloudy, warm, sea breeze is nice
And the bodies are piling up.
Two couples killed and one lady almost beaten to death.
This post was edited on 6/5/19 at 8:59 pm
Posted on 6/5/19 at 8:57 pm to Duke
Based off the radar alone, looks like after this next storm passing through LC now, it’s going to start ending. Won’t be much longer.
Posted on 6/5/19 at 9:28 pm to Prominentwon
All depends on what that little tail does
Posted on 6/5/19 at 9:38 pm to rds dc
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0375
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1021 PM EDT Wed Jun 05 2019
Areas affected...Southeast TX...Southwest to South-Central LA
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely
Valid 060220Z - 060800Z
SUMMARY...Very heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected
overnight from portions of the southeast TX coastal plain east
over toward especially coastal areas of southwest to south-central
LA. Flash flooding is likely given extremely heavy rainfall rates.
DISCUSSION...An area of low pressure just east of Houston, TX
continues to foster a band of concentrated deep convection well to
the east of its center involving several coastal parishes of
southwest LA. There has been some gradual lowering of the central
pressure over the last several hours which has been tending to
enhance the low-level wind field around the eastern flank of the
circulation center. In fact, the latest VAD wind profiler data
from KPOE and KLCH shows south-southeast 850 mb flow of 40kts.
Consequently, this has been enhancing the moisture and instability
transport in off the northwest Gulf of Mexico. In fact, the latest
blended-TPW product and GPS-derived data show an axis of 2.4 to
2.6 inch PWATS nosed up across southeast TX and southwest LA,
along with a pool of moderate instability with MLCAPE values of
2000 j/kg seen along the coast.
The latest hires model suite is not exactly handling the placement
of the current convective mass too well, with the bulk of the
guidance appearing to be too slow and/or too far north with the
axis of best concentration. Satellite and radar trends in
conjunction with the axis of best moisture flux would tend to
support the convection remaining reasonably well focused across
areas of southwest to south-central LA over the next several
hours. However, over the next couple of hours, it is possible that
convection may tend to reorganize and become a bit more
concentrated closer into the low center over southeast TX where
sufficient instability remains in place coupled with locally
focused low-level convergence.
Rainfall rates are likely to be extreme, and potentially as high
as 3 to 4 inches/hr given the deep layer tropical nature of the
column and corresponding PWATS of locally over 2.5 inches. The
degree of very cold convective tops and proximity of at least
moderate instability will only help to sustain enhanced rainfall
rates. Expect additional rainfall amounts of as much as 4 to 6+
inches to be possible going through 08Z. Flash flooding will be
likely given these totals, and this will be on top of heavy rains
that occurred earlier in the day.
Orrison
Posted on 6/5/19 at 9:48 pm to rds dc
When is all this flooding supposed to happen. The ole’ lady has to drive to Houston Friday from BR
Posted on 6/5/19 at 9:49 pm to udtiger
Guess I’ll consider myself lucky if I make it out alive by Friday then. Feel like my chances are better here than NOLA...
Posted on 6/5/19 at 9:56 pm to theunknownknight
It's an overnight discussion. They're explaining why that area should get dumped on overnight and that'll lead to flash flooding.
Posted on 6/5/19 at 10:15 pm to NickyT
quote:
Safe to assume my gulf shores trip this weekend will be a wash out?
Maybe not a complete wash out but definitely cloudy and wet the majority of the weekend.
quote:
Posted by Bedhog on 6/5/19 at 5:35 pm to NickyT Shouldn't be Supposed to be headed NE into middle Louisiana.
From MS to entire FL panhandle will be wet into Monday.
This post was edited on 6/5/19 at 10:21 pm
Posted on 6/5/19 at 11:00 pm to Prominentwon
quote:
Based off the radar alone, looks like after this next storm passing through LC now, it’s going to start ending. Won’t be much longer.
Dumped pretty good in LCH about a half hour or so ago. Nowhere near what we’ve already seen a few times this year. So far anyway.
Posted on 6/5/19 at 11:12 pm to SippyCup
Going to a concert tomm night at the Wharf and its stated rain or shine 
Posted on 6/5/19 at 11:24 pm to AmosMosesAndTwins
Lake Charles might be okay, but due south has had like 8"+ today.
Posted on 6/5/19 at 11:25 pm to slackster
It’s raining pretty hard right now. I really think this is the last of it tonight though.
Posted on 6/5/19 at 11:33 pm to Prominentwon
quote:
It’s raining pretty hard right now. I really think this is the last of it tonight though
Wouldn't bet on it. Seeing enough lightning on the west side and now coming into LCH now shows convection starting to fire more, and back toward the surface low. I'd expect more rain through the night as it keeps building in.
Posted on 6/6/19 at 12:32 am to rds dc
holy shite that's some nasty rotation
This post was edited on 6/6/19 at 12:35 am
Posted on 6/6/19 at 12:43 am to DVinBR
nasty storm got to be producing torrential rainfall also.
Posted on 6/6/19 at 12:48 am to lsuman25
Jennings might be fixing to get hit by a tornado very nasty hook on normal radar.
Posted on 6/6/19 at 12:59 am to lsuman25
It's been dropping one since it came on shore. Frames you showed look healthy.
Posted on 6/6/19 at 2:11 am to Duke
Tornado time 
Posted on 6/6/19 at 2:41 am to Duke
quote:
Wouldn't bet on it. Seeing enough lightning on the west side and now coming into LCH now shows convection starting to fire more, and back toward the surface low. I'd expect more rain through the night as it keeps building in.
Had one last little storm pass through. I think it was pretty close to the Low itself. Wind picked up pretty good. Sustained at least 25 for a hour or so. Still sort of blowing but not as hard right now. Rain looks to have passed through per the radar.
There’s a line back in Texas i see heading this way, but I’m pretty sure that’s not associated with this system.
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