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re: Hurricane Season - No Current Gulf Threats
Posted on 8/17/25 at 10:32 am to Tigerfan1274
Posted on 8/17/25 at 10:32 am to Tigerfan1274
quote:
And the next run puts right back in the Gulf at the TX/LA line.
At this point, we can probably discount the GFS. The key to watch will be how fast Erin moves OTS and how the ridge builds in behind it. The Euro is slower to move Erin out, so the ridge builds in slower. A solution like this would probably keep future 99L out of the Gulf. How fast the ridge builds in and how deep the incoming trough is will determine if 99L is OTS or an East Coast threat.
The GFS is quicker to move Erin out, and it builds in a strong ridge behind Erin. This forces 99L pretty far south, which allows it to avoid getting picked up by the next trough and gives it a clear path to the Gulf.
7
Posted on 8/17/25 at 10:40 am to rds dc
First time I’ll ever cheer for Europeans
Posted on 8/17/25 at 10:40 am to rds dc
quote:
At this point, we can probably discount the GFS.
Say less fam
Posted on 8/17/25 at 10:57 am to rds dc
rds dc, when it comes to the details in the hurricane thread each season, YOU DA' MAN!
So, please don't take my next question as doubting what you've posted about 99L.
When I look at the OP now and see the center of the yellow hatch track for 99L as it approaches the islands, it shows it to be much further north as it hits the islands than your most recent graphic and explanation of the GFS models.
To get to where the GFS models show, 99L would have to move south of due west as it treks across the Atlantic. Wouldn't that be really abnormal?
Please keep up the good work.
So, please don't take my next question as doubting what you've posted about 99L.
When I look at the OP now and see the center of the yellow hatch track for 99L as it approaches the islands, it shows it to be much further north as it hits the islands than your most recent graphic and explanation of the GFS models.
To get to where the GFS models show, 99L would have to move south of due west as it treks across the Atlantic. Wouldn't that be really abnormal?
Please keep up the good work.
Posted on 8/17/25 at 11:59 am to rds dc
Which source does Weather Underground use? I know it’s a reputable one but unsure which.
It pretty much splits the path in between your two scenarios for now.
It pretty much splits the path in between your two scenarios for now.
Posted on 8/17/25 at 12:00 pm to LSURussian
quote:
When I look at the OP now and see the center of the yellow hatch track for 99L as it approaches the islands, it shows it to be much further north as it hits the islands than your most recent graphic and explanation of the GFS models.
To get to where the GFS models show, 99L would have to move south of due west as it treks across the Atlantic. Wouldn't that be really abnormal?
The yellow hatch just denotes a general area that the NHC believes the center of a system could form. The center could form anywhere in that envelope. Where it forms is dictated by the same major player that will dictate its ultimate path, either OTS or a Gulf threat. In the GFS the Atlantic ridge pushes further south, shunting the disturbance closer to the islands where it eventually consolidates. The Euro solution has a weaker ridge farther north which allows the disturbance to gain latitude before it consolidates. The hatched area seems to split the difference.
Posted on 8/17/25 at 12:05 pm to LegendInMyMind
Which model is the Euro on tropical tidbits?
Posted on 8/17/25 at 12:16 pm to tunechi
quote:
Which model is the Euro on tropical tidbits?
ECMWF
Posted on 8/17/25 at 12:24 pm to rds dc
quote:
The key to watch will be how fast Erin moves OTS and how the ridge builds in behind it. The Euro is slower to move Erin out, so the ridge builds in slower. A solution like this would probably keep future 99L out of the Gulf. How fast the ridge builds in and how deep the incoming trough is will determine if 99L is OTS or an East Coast threat.
Obviously. And I mean I completely understand this explanation. But for some of those that don’t, you might want to explain it to them like a 5 year old.
Posted on 8/17/25 at 1:34 pm to Suntiger
First I’m hearing about this new one. Is it gonna wipe us out?
This post was edited on 8/17/25 at 1:35 pm
Posted on 8/17/25 at 2:07 pm to OysterPoBoy
quote:the answer is always yes
First I’m hearing about this new one. Is it gonna wipe us out?
Posted on 8/17/25 at 3:34 pm to Pedro
BOHICA!
Posted on 8/18/25 at 12:11 pm to rds dc
Seems like GFS has been slowly trending more towards Euro solution over last day
Posted on 8/18/25 at 12:17 pm to rds dc
quote:
move Erin out, so the ridge builds in slower
That’s what she said??
Posted on 8/18/25 at 12:39 pm to ragincajun03
The latest GFS looks bad for Tampa. Hopefully it moves east and follows Erin OTS.
Posted on 8/18/25 at 2:51 pm to alphaandomega
FWIW .. getting hints of Autumn's arrival. Monarch scouts and the flowering of monkey grass - North Texas. Maybe early season fronts keep a lid down further South?
Posted on 8/18/25 at 3:25 pm to alphaandomega
quote:
The latest GFS looks bad for Tampa.
Hitting Tampa from the east or from the west? IOW, from the Atlantic crossing the Florida peninsula or west from the Gulf of America?? Posted on 8/18/25 at 3:27 pm to LSURussian
quote:
Hitting Tampa from the east or from the west
From the West, or just south of Tampa then across the state up in to the Carolinas. But that’s still a long long ways away
Posted on 8/18/25 at 3:29 pm to LSURussian
quote:
Hitting Tampa from the east or from the west? IOW, from the Atlantic crossing the Florida peninsula or west from the Gulf of America??
GFS shows it making landfall around Miami then moving up the west side of the peninsula towards Tampa. Then it keeps moving towards south Georgia.
But no worries. The GFS is so unreliable the next track with have it hitting Mexico and the next one hitting Bermuda.
Posted on 8/18/25 at 4:13 pm to alphaandomega
quote:
GFS shows it making landfall around Miami then moving up the west side of the peninsula towards Tampa.
Louisiana people can talk about New Orleans doomcanes all they want, but a Miami + Tampa major hurricane is truly the doomcane to end all doomcanes absent a cat 5 into Manhattan.
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