re: Hurricane Nate - Moving Inland - Hurricane Season Over?

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You need warm water AND deep water. The run up to the coast won't really have either, but the storm will also be hauling arse, so it won't matter a ton.

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10:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 6
Location: 22.3°N 86.4°W
Moving: NNW at 22 mph
Min pressure: 990 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph

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Recent data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve reconnaissance flights
indicate that Nate continues to strengthen and is near hurricane
strength. The NOAA plane measured a maximum 700-mb flight-level
wind of 75 kt, but the SFMR instruments on both planes have only
measured surface winds as high as 55 kt. It seems that the highest
winds haven't quite mixed down to the surface, but it's likely that
the system is at least producing surface winds of 60 kt, which will
be the initial intensity for this advisory. The NOAA flight also
reported that an eyewall is forming to the east of Nate's center.

Nate has been accelerating toward the north-northwest between a
large cyclonic gyre centered over southern Mexico and a mid-level
high located over the southwestern Atlantic, and the initial motion
estimate is 340/19 kt. This north-northwestward motion is expected
to continue for the next 24 hours, with Nate turning northward and
slowing down only slightly around the time it is forecast to cross
the northern Gulf coast between 24-36 hours. After landfall, the
cyclone is expected to get swept up ahead of a large mid-latitude
trough, and accelerate northeastward over the eastern United
States. At least up until landfall, the track guidance is in good
agreement, and the NHC forecast is relatively unchanged from the
previous one. After landfall, the new forecast is just a tad slower
in order to give some credence to the slower solution provided by
the ECMWF model.

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions appear conducive for Nate to
continue strengthening up until the time it makes landfall along
the northern Gulf coast. Nate is likely to become a hurricane
overnight, and the new NHC forecast has been raised to a peak
intensity of 75 kt at 24 hours based on guidance from the SHIPS and
LGEM models. The intensity consensus and HCCA are lower than that
due to the HWRF solution, which shows absolutely no strengthening
before landfall. Disregarding that solution, it seems prudent to
be above the consensus, close to the upper end of the guidance
envelope. Rapid intensification still cannot be ruled out since
the indices are showing a 50/50 chance of a 25-kt increase over
the next 24 hours. If Nate becomes a hurricane soon, then
additional increases in the official intensity forecast may be
necessary in subsequent advisories.

Aircraft data indicate that Nate is an asymmetric storm, with most
of the winds located on the eastern side of the circulation, and
this structure is likely to continue until landfall due to the
cyclone's fast forward speed. Therefore, locations to the east of
where Nate makes landfall are expected to receive significantly
stronger winds than locations to the west of the center. Regardless,
there is still too much uncertainty to know exactly where landfall
will occur, and all locations within the hurricane warning area
should be preparing for hurricane-force winds.

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Rapid intensification still cannot be ruled out since 
the indices are showing a 50/50 chance of a 25-kt increase over 
the next 24 hours. If Nate becomes a hurricane soon, then 
additional increases in the official intensity forecast may be 
necessary in subsequent advisories

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