- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
0
Posted on 10/6/24 at 9:39 pm to tiger91
Posted on 10/6/24 at 9:42 pm to LegendInMyMind
When is landfall forecasted for this thing?
Posted on 10/6/24 at 9:43 pm to genuineLSUtiger
Early afternoon Wednesday
Posted on 10/6/24 at 9:45 pm to genuineLSUtiger
They’ve slowed it down. Evening Wednesday.
This post was edited on 10/6/24 at 9:47 pm
Posted on 10/6/24 at 9:46 pm to ell_13
Posted on 10/6/24 at 9:50 pm to ell_13
quote:
Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024
Milton continues to intensify. The hurricane's center is embedded
within a circular Central Dense Overcast containing very intense
convection with cloud tops colder than -80 deg C. Tail Doppler wind
data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that the
circulation is quite symmetric, with very little vertical tilt from
1 to 5 km elevation. Observations from both Air Force and NOAA
Hurricane Hunters indicate that the central pressure is falling and
that the intensity has increased to near 80 kt.
Fixes from the aircraft and satellite imagery indicate that the
hurricane is moving generally eastward with an initial motion
estimate of 100/6 kt. Milton is moving within the southern portion
of a broad mid-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico, and is also
being influenced by the flow on the southwest side of a low- to
mid-level cyclone currently over the eastern Gulf. The
numerical guidance indicates that this cyclone will shift east
of Florida within the next day or two, so that its influence
on Milton will gradually lessen with time. As the mid-level
trough digs over the central Gulf, the hurricane should turn
northeastward with some increase in forward speed during the
next 2-3 days and be near the west coast of Florida in the 72
hour time frame. After crossing Florida, the cyclone should turn
east-northeastward to eastward over the Atlantic waters off the
southeastern United States. The official track forecast follows
essentially the same trajectory as the previous NHC prediction but
is a bit slower, in accordance with the latest dynamical model
consensus guidance. Again it should be noted that the average NHC
track error at day 3 is around 100 miles, and users should not focus
on the exact track.
Milton should continue to traverse waters of very high oceanic heat
content within an environment of light vertical wind shear and moist
low- to mid-level air for the next 1-2 days. The official intensity
forecast is similar to the previous one and shows Milton rapidly
strengthening to category 4 intensity within the next couple of
days. Thereafter, stronger upper-level westerlies over the northern
Gulf of Mexico should result in increasing shear. The latest SHIPS
model output shows the shear over Milton increasing significantly in
60-72 hours. Therefore, some weakening is anticipated before the
hurricane reaches the Florida Gulf coast. However, the system is
still likely to be a large and powerful hurricane at landfall in
Florida, with life-threatening hazards along portions of the the
coastline.
Key Messages:
1. Milton is forecast to be a major hurricane when it reaches the
west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Users are reminded
to not focus on the details of the forecast as there remains
significant uncertainty in the eventual track and intensity of
Milton.
2. While it is too soon to specify the exact magnitude and location
of the greatest impacts, there is an increasing risk of life-
threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west
coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning early Wednesday and Storm
Surge and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued early Monday.
Residents in the Florida Peninsula should follow any advice given
by local officials and monitor updates to the forecast.
3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Monday
well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to
the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This
rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal
flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river
flooding.
4. Tropical storm conditions are expected with hurricane conditions
possible beginning Monday across portions of the northern Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico where a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane
Watch are in effect.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/0300Z 22.4N 93.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 22.2N 91.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 22.3N 90.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 22.9N 88.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 24.2N 86.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 25.8N 84.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 27.5N 82.3W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
96H 11/0000Z 29.6N 77.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/0000Z 31.0N 71.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Posted on 10/6/24 at 9:51 pm to BigBro
Yeah, Katina was a double-eye wall storm and strengthing when it hit. Dr Blackwell did a peer-reviewed paper on this that was accepted by everyone but the insurance whores. It's proven by the fact that the highest wind gusts were all 60-100 miles inshore.
If it wasn't for the insurance industry it would have been reclassified. (I don't know why they cared as they lost every single trial anyway, but I guess it made it easier for their bitch whores like Edith Jones, (may she die a miserable painful lingering death ) to reverse every verdict at the 5th circuit.
Unfortunately, As part of your governor’s attempted presidential run, he helped gut all your insurance protection laws so now you are going to have a really tough time with them since all the penalty provisions were gutted.
If it wasn't for the insurance industry it would have been reclassified. (I don't know why they cared as they lost every single trial anyway, but I guess it made it easier for their bitch whores like Edith Jones, (may she die a miserable painful lingering death ) to reverse every verdict at the 5th circuit.
Unfortunately, As part of your governor’s attempted presidential run, he helped gut all your insurance protection laws so now you are going to have a really tough time with them since all the penalty provisions were gutted.
Posted on 10/6/24 at 10:03 pm to TutHillTiger
Who is Dr Blackwell and Edith Jones?
Posted on 10/6/24 at 10:03 pm to Cosmo
I'm currently with family in disney till Friday. Wondering if we should call the vacation early and head out tomorrow sometime. Staying in Disney so maybe we'll be OK if we stay?
Posted on 10/6/24 at 10:05 pm to rds dc
that massive explosion of convection in the past hour
not good
not good
Posted on 10/6/24 at 10:10 pm to frankthetank
quote:
I'm currently with family in disney till Friday. Wondering if we should call the vacation early and head out tomorrow sometime. Staying in Disney so maybe we'll be OK if we stay?
Man, that's a tough call that I wouldn't want to have to make. Orlando is less than 50 miles from the current NHC centerline. We're more likely to see northern shifts than southern at this point, which would make it even rougher for Orlando. I have little doubt that you all would be safe at a Disney resort. That would make the immediate aftermath the biggest concern.
This post was edited on 10/6/24 at 10:11 pm
Posted on 10/6/24 at 10:12 pm to tilco
Edith Jones is a political appointment to the 5th circuit that is so biased the ABA actually determined she was unqualified to be a judge, for bias and she has ruled on behalf of big corporations 100% of the time. I think the only time in history that's happened. She has also referred to blacks and Hispanics as animals predisposed to crime etc etc.
Dr Blackwell is a meteorologist from
USA
Dr Blackwell is a meteorologist from
USA
Posted on 10/6/24 at 10:13 pm to DVinBR
Yeah, big time convection. You can see the deep convection wrapping into/around the core, too.
Posted on 10/6/24 at 10:18 pm to frankthetank
Frank, did you drive or fly? If you flew I would highly recommend you get a rental car tomorrow just in case you need to haul arse Tuesday and can't get a flight etc. They are cheap in Orlando
Posted on 10/6/24 at 10:21 pm to TutHillTiger
Starting to think Jacksonville isn’t the best place to be either.
Posted on 10/6/24 at 10:28 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
frick that reminds me of Katrina
Posted on 10/6/24 at 10:37 pm to frankthetank
Personally I get the frick out.
Posted on 10/6/24 at 10:52 pm to frankthetank
I’ve been there during a tropical storm. The parks will likely close early Wednesday. They will remain closed until all rides and buildings are inspected so assume Thursday and possibly Friday closures. Resorts will remain open but with limited services.
No point in staying.
No point in staying.
Posted on 10/6/24 at 11:11 pm to SippyCup
quote:
I’ve been there during a tropical storm. The parks will likely close early Wednesday. They will remain closed until all rides and buildings are inspected so assume Thursday and possibly Friday closures. Resorts will remain open but with limited services.
Disney travel agent on stormcast said the same. Expect the parks to close Wednesday and possibly Thursday depending on damage:
quote:
Disney Travel agent here: Disney will most likely be open Tuesday, closed Wednesday and depending on damage, opened Thursday. Some outdoor attractions may have damage and not be open. The resorts will have food, and if safe activities do to at the resorts.
Page 45 of 242
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News