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Started By
Message
1
Posted on 9/4/17 at 2:57 pm to rt3
I don't buy the northward turn. It just doesn't seem logical for it to do it with a storm this large. HWRF doesn't seem to buy it either. GOM here we go!!!
Posted on 9/4/17 at 2:58 pm to Vood
Hurricane Hunters making the turn to start pass #2 in Irma
Mission #3
Mission #3
Posted on 9/4/17 at 2:58 pm to deltaland
quote:
This must be how Sasha gray feels in those videos
Congratulations, you win the Internet.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 2:58 pm to rds dc
How accurate is that model...?
Posted on 9/4/17 at 3:00 pm to TheriotAF
quote:
just find it hard to believe it takes that hard of a turn. That would be one hell of a shift in direction.
It's not hard to believe as a normal low level trough will change a hurricanes path on a dime. But the shortwave that may or may not be there that they're counting on doing that isn't confidence inspiring and even if it's there I'm not sure it'll be strong enough to drag Irma straight north.
I still think it gets in the central gulf and landfall will be between Nola and Destin
Posted on 9/4/17 at 3:00 pm to Vood
quote:i think matthew did the same thing last year if i remember right. its completely logical depending on troughs/ridges and their strength. shite a storm could go into complete reverse if it interacted with the right system.
I don't buy the northward turn. It just doesn't seem logical for it to do it with a storm this large. HWRF doesn't seem to buy it either. GOM here we go!!!
Posted on 9/4/17 at 3:00 pm to Hangover Haven
quote:
How accurate is that model...?
these models isn't about looking at an individual model
it's about looking at trends and changing dynamics
the fact that 1 is starting to not recurve is just something to keep an eye on... if more models start doing it then it becomes a great concern
ETA: rds if I'm wrong please correct me
This post was edited on 9/4/17 at 3:03 pm
Posted on 9/4/17 at 3:03 pm to rt3
youre right
Posted on 9/4/17 at 3:03 pm to Pedro
quote:
its completely logical depending on troughs/ridges and their strength. shite a storm could go into complete reverse if it interacted with the right system
We've seen it before.
I take that rouge shortwave as the key opening the door by building a little weakness on the western edge of that ridge. I've got the right idea on that or no?
Posted on 9/4/17 at 3:03 pm to rt3
quote:
I'm not sure Jacksonville is 100% safe spot to go
No but it'll still be early to see what this thing ends up doing. Its far enough that they'll be out of the catastrophic threat and can very easily go north/ west from there.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 3:03 pm to Hangover Haven
Posted on 9/4/17 at 3:04 pm to GEAUXmedic
That track takes it right into the Gulf.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 3:05 pm to St Augustine
quote:
No but it'll still be early to see what this thing ends up doing. Its far enough that they'll be out of the catastrophic threat and can very easily go north/ west from there.
I was an idiot who evacuated from NOLA to Picayune, Miss. (grandparents' house) for Katrina
so don't take evacuation advice from me
Posted on 9/4/17 at 3:06 pm to RollTide1987
quote:
That track takes it right into the Gulf.
on that track... we're hoping Cuba's mountains just destroy Irma
Posted on 9/4/17 at 3:07 pm to Duke
i think thats right
Posted on 9/4/17 at 3:08 pm to rt3
It would literally traverse the full length of Cuba on that track, which couldn't be a bad thing at all if it has to go on that track (for us, would suck huge for Cuba).
Posted on 9/4/17 at 3:08 pm to CE Tiger
quote:
That ain't Irma
Water is sold out at several walmarks here in West Palm. I'm waiting to see a better track over the next few days before I start putting up hurricane shutters.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 3:11 pm to rds dc
How far west could this thing hypothetically get?
Posted on 9/4/17 at 3:11 pm to rt3
quote:
on that track... we're hoping Cuba's mountains just destroy Irma
problem is the Loop Current is waiting on the other side of cuba...with super warm water to just feed feed feed that thing.
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