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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down
Posted on 9/4/17 at 3:11 pm to tigerpimpbot
Posted on 9/4/17 at 3:11 pm to tigerpimpbot
quote:
Water is sold out at several walmarks here in West Palm. I'm waiting to see a better track over the next few days before I start putting up hurricane shutters.
Fortunately mine are still sitting on side of house from last year
0
Posted on 9/4/17 at 3:11 pm to GEAUXmedic
Only thing positive in that model is it probably gets beatdown by Cuba.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 3:12 pm to GEAUXmedic
Well that would fricking suck
Posted on 9/4/17 at 3:13 pm to GEAUXT
Looks like we have a cat 4:
AL, 11, 2017090418, , BEST, 0, 167N, 539W, 115, 944, HU
Location: 16.7°N 53.9°W
Maximum Winds: 115 kt Gusts: 140 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 944 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 250 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 15 NM
Eye Diameter: N/A
115kt = 132 mph = Cat 4.
AL, 11, 2017090418, , BEST, 0, 167N, 539W, 115, 944, HU
Location: 16.7°N 53.9°W
Maximum Winds: 115 kt Gusts: 140 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 944 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 250 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 15 NM
Eye Diameter: N/A
115kt = 132 mph = Cat 4.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 3:13 pm to deuce985
quote:
Only thing positive in that model is it probably gets beatdown by Cuba.
Yeah, but Harvey got beat down by the Yucatan and still reformed and went from a depression to a Cat 4 in the gulf in a matter of days... could Irma go over Cuba, make it weakly out the other side, then rapidly intensify once back out over warm gulf waters?
Posted on 9/4/17 at 3:14 pm to Vood
quote:
It just doesn't seem logical for it to do it with a storm this large.
Yeah, neither does a category 4 storm getting brought to a dead stop and held motionless for 5 days. I'll stick with the mets' forecasts, whatever they are.
This post was edited on 9/4/17 at 3:18 pm
Posted on 9/4/17 at 3:15 pm to Dire Wolf
quote:
I know a lot of people are tired of peej prediction meme but just to be safe, he needs to stay the frick out of this thread
Speaking of. What did PJ predict Harvey would do?
Posted on 9/4/17 at 3:16 pm to Vood
You realize most hurricanes turn north in order to hit land right? Not sure why it's hard to believe. By your logic, this thing will drift so far west in GOM it will hit Texas because it can't turn north. C'mon son.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 3:16 pm to deuce985
quote:
Only thing positive in that model is it probably gets beatdown by Cuba.
But then she has time to re-strengthen once back over the Gulf due to warmer water. It will eventually re-curve north and that turn will give it time to develop back into a major hurricane before making landfall.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 3:17 pm to LSUBoo
quote:
could Irma go over Cuba, make it weakly out the other side, then rapidly intensify once back out over warm gulf waters?
Easily. Sad but true.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 3:18 pm to rds dc
quote:
HWRF gets tangled up with Cuba and is showing no signs of the northward turn at the end of the run.
The ESRL FIM8 looks like it is smoking the same stuff as the HWRF.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 3:18 pm to rds dc
Posted on 9/4/17 at 3:18 pm to OweO
quote:
Speaking of. What did PJ predict Harvey would do?
He promised an East Coast landfall of course.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 3:19 pm to rds dc
Ef that.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 3:19 pm to rds dc
quote:
The ESRL FIM8 looks like it is smoking the same stuff as the HWRF.
north gulf coast anal pucker factor moves from a 0.5 to a 1 out of 10
Posted on 9/4/17 at 3:19 pm to ShamelessPel
Nah, Peej predicted Harvey would just stay in Mexico.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 3:21 pm to rds dc
quote:
HWRF gets tangled up with Cuba and is showing no signs of the northward turn at the end of the run.
The positive with that is if it goes into GOM it does it as a Cat 1-2 not a 4-5. But it could build back up quickly.
Posted on 9/4/17 at 3:21 pm to Lazy But Talented
Doesn't seem like much of a change in the Euro ensembles:
12z GFS ensembles:
12z GFS ensembles:
Posted on 9/4/17 at 3:25 pm to slackster
Still going west like fievel
Posted on 9/4/17 at 3:25 pm to rds dc
Horrible trend starting with a lot of time left. 100 miles west shift every day and a half could bring it close to Texas.
No tellinh where this thing is gonna end up
No tellinh where this thing is gonna end up
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