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re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down

Posted on 9/8/17 at 4:54 pm to
Posted by lsufan1971
Zachary
Member since Nov 2003
24210 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 4:54 pm to
quote:

This thing is going to hit the panhandle


It's a 400 mile wide storm. They will get tropical storm winds.
Posted by liz18lsu
Member since Feb 2009
18042 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 4:55 pm to
quote:

TigerNAtux


Been through many of these, many weeks without power. I can deal with the aftermath. I am concerned about 150+ mph winds.
Andrew, Katrina, Isaac, Gustav, Rita

Was climbing in my attic to pull my vent fan back in to place during a storm. Not used to these kind of winds. But capable of dealing with the aftermath.
Posted by notiger1997
Metairie
Member since May 2009
61722 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 4:55 pm to
quote:

Rummy, can we PLEASE get the other thread started?


Yes please.

"It hasn't turned north yet. La and Ms are in play now!!!
Posted by TigerNAtux
Louisiana
Member since Dec 2007
18622 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 4:58 pm to
Best of luck.
Posted by The Pirate King
Pangu
Member since May 2014
68249 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 4:58 pm to
quote:

Yes please. "It hasn't turned north yet. La and Ms are in play now!!!


Y'all are a sensitive bunch, frick man, it's a message board. Made for people to post.

I haven't posted much in these threads, but y'all flip out anytime someone suggests something outside of the 84 hour forecast.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 4:58 pm to
quote:

griswold


Multiple posters, including a weather professional in rds, have explained with detail why it's going to turn north. They've shown the steering patters that will do it, the why this steering will turn it, and explained that hurricanes will turn north unless there's something like a high pressure to prevent it and push it west.

The only questioning of this I've seen are people saying they don't believe it because Katrina went way west that time and big things don't turn fast. They've offered nothing to contradict the reasoning every computer model, member of the National Weather Service, and National Hurricane Center have offered that quite reasonably explains why Irma turns north.
Posted by Tiger985
Member since Nov 2006
7674 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 4:59 pm to
quote:

but we had 10 solid hours of 100mph sustained winds


I have no doubt what you experience was horrible and life changing but no one experienced those winds for that long in Katrina, especially 75 miles inland. No need for hyperbole. It was bad enough.
Posted by Luke
1113 Chartres Street, NOLA
Member since Nov 2004
14301 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 4:59 pm to
Mark Chapter 4:

Jesus Calms the Storm:
35 That day when evening came, he said to his disciples, “Let us go over to the other side.” 36 Leaving the crowd behind, they took him along, just as he was, in the boat. There were also other boats with him. 37 A furious squall came up, and the waves broke over the boat, so that it was nearly swamped. 38 Jesus was in the stern, sleeping on a cushion. The disciples woke him and said to him, “Teacher, don’t you care if we drown?”

39 He got up, rebuked the wind and said to the waves, “Quiet! Be still!” Then the wind died down and it was completely calm.

40 He said to his disciples, “Why are you so afraid? Do you still have no faith?”

41 They were terrified and asked each other, “Who is this? Even the wind and the waves obey him!” Prayers sent to all in this storms path. All Christians should unite in prayer for protection and mercy for those. May God spare us the worst.
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 5:00 pm to
Again, this is why I hate how NHC does these cones. They change them every few hours which to me gives people the wrong impression on what's going on. For a government site it seems kinda irresponsible, IMO. They should leave error tracks up for a few days minimum so people who glance can prep. Too many people look at those cones and say, "well, the storm is 50 miles east on error we're fine"

When models are tight for a few days remove them out of the error.
Posted by TH03
Mogadishu
Member since Dec 2008
172004 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 5:01 pm to
Some guys in this thread really know what they're talking about so when people come in spouting fear mongering bullshite, I can see how it gets aggravating. People saying it's hitting Louisiana are going off of no evidence and just a gut feeling. Every model shows it popping north over Florida, but these guys think they know better.
Posted by baobabtiger
Member since May 2009
4952 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 5:03 pm to
I think so too. I've been projecting a landing spot of Keaton beach to apalachicola. If so it is going to be really nasty because of the warmth of the gulf waters.

Posted by notiger1997
Metairie
Member since May 2009
61722 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 5:03 pm to
Slackster has responded over and over to people showing the cones really haven't changed and explaining about the forecast. He's probably tired of doing it now.

Posted by The Dudes Rug
Member since Nov 2004
14067 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 5:03 pm to
Two days ago, I asked what would keep it from going into the gulf and some people were trying to ban me.
Posted by TH03
Mogadishu
Member since Dec 2008
172004 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 5:03 pm to
Yea I know, it's gotta be so frustrating to refute this crap over and over.
Posted by griswold
Member since Oct 2009
4307 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 5:03 pm to
quote:

Multiple posters, including a weather professional in rds, have explained with detail why it's going to turn north.

Well no shite, it's going to turn north, but the question has been WHEN will it turn north. Experts keep posting images and graphs and models, yet the stupid models keep moving west, and said experts keep saying shite like "it's doing exactly what the models said"
Posted by notiger1997
Metairie
Member since May 2009
61722 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 5:04 pm to
quote:

The Dude's Rug


It's because you kept coming back to argue stupid shite. Not just because you asked a question.
Posted by gaetti15
AK
Member since Apr 2013
15279 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 5:04 pm to
quote:

Again, this is why I hate how NHC does these cones. They change them every few hours which to me gives people the wrong impression on what's going on. For a government site it seems kinda irresponsible, IMO.


They explicitly state that anything within the cone, especially within the 3 day window is fair game.

What they should do is not show the best track just the cone.

That way it can really get the point across to get your head out of your arse and prepare to go

ETA: It's like people can't grasp uncertainty
This post was edited on 9/8/17 at 5:06 pm
Posted by TH03
Mogadishu
Member since Dec 2008
172004 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 5:05 pm to
quote:

Well no shite, it's going to turn north, but the question has been WHEN will it turn north.

It has always been over the weekend.
Posted by The Dudes Rug
Member since Nov 2004
14067 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 5:05 pm to
Yes, the models originally showed Irma would go up the east coast several days ago, which made me question the predictions.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 5:06 pm to
We don't know exactly when it turns but we're pretty damn sure it's somewhere between the east coast of Florida and just off the West coast of Florida at this point.
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