re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down

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And I'm sure there's conservatives sharing it claiming it is punishment from God for America's wrong doings

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I only say that when it hits up north. Why would anyone say such a thing when it hits God's country?

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I am nervously awaiting an update on Irma.

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a new Euro model should start running here in a few minutes

will probably complete its run by 1:45 or 2

They're starting to discuss the little guy that follows Irma in most of the models:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Sep 3
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Irma, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms that are currently displaced well to the west of the wave axis. Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form by the end of the week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph over the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A tropical wave is in the E Atlc associated with a 1012 mb low located near 09N30W. The wave axis extends from 15N30W to the low to 06N30W, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is in a region of low vertical wind shear, however enhanced IR imagery show some Saharan dry air and dust in the wave environment. CIRA LPW imagery at the lower levels confirm the presence of dry air in the vicinity of the wave. Shallow moisture and diffluence aloft support scattered showers and tstms from 02N to 13N between 20W and 38W.

You can vaguely see the swirling area starting around 9N 20W moving westward:

Even if the GFS is overstating the strength, that's still a monster.

new Euro run has started

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post it and explain in plain english, por favor.

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it's going to take about an hour for the run to finish

go get some lunch... I'll be watching

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What about that one that was in the bottom of the gulf? Has that just gone away?

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yeah doesn't seem like that ever developed... good for the whole area

Euro saying it'll make more of a direct hit on the Leeward Antilles than in previous runs... which is a touch more south than yesterday's 12z run



ETA: 96 hour out image confirms a further south jog this run... Hispaniola getting more effects and a glancing blow from it

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Euro saying it'll make more of a direct hit on the Leeward Antilles than in previous runs... which is a touch more south than yesterday's 12z run

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Not a kunt's hair of difference I can tell in position, although the intensity forecast appears slightly weaker.