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re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down

Posted on 9/3/17 at 1:21 pm to
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147069 posts
Posted on 9/3/17 at 1:21 pm to
quote:

Not a kunt's hair of difference I can tell in position, although the intensity forecast appears slightly weaker.

I'm comparing to yesterday's 12z... not 00z
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147069 posts
Posted on 9/3/17 at 1:25 pm to
this Euro run for where it thinks Irma will be around noon Friday



compared to YESTERDAY's 12z for where it'll be at the same time

Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
102429 posts
Posted on 9/3/17 at 1:26 pm to
That's making a track into the GOM more and more likely
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
131322 posts
Posted on 9/3/17 at 1:27 pm to
Not really
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147069 posts
Posted on 9/3/17 at 1:29 pm to
quote:

That's making a track into the GOM more and more likely

quote:

Not really


still too early to make any definitive statements about anything

but the continued SW movement of the models has to be at least a tiny bit concerning... teeny tiny
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147069 posts
Posted on 9/3/17 at 1:32 pm to
this model run for Irma's position on noon Saturday ***see good news at end of post***



compared to yesterday's 12z run for Irma's position on noon Saturday



good news is ~20mb weaker than yesterday's projected strength
Posted by MrSmith
Member since Sep 2009
8319 posts
Posted on 9/3/17 at 1:34 pm to
Well that's a little more west than I was expecting
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147069 posts
Posted on 9/3/17 at 1:36 pm to
quote:

Well that's a little more west than I was expecting

24 hours ago the Euro said Cuba wouldn't have felt much from Irma

this Euro run says Cuba sees at least a more breezy day as the storm passes by
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147069 posts
Posted on 9/3/17 at 1:38 pm to
Florida on Sunday...



compared to yesterday's 12z Euro



ETA: again a little weaker... but again more south and west
This post was edited on 9/3/17 at 1:39 pm
Posted by Rox
Member since Oct 2010
33333 posts
Posted on 9/3/17 at 1:43 pm to
:fingers crossed for her swinging out to sea:
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
51676 posts
Posted on 9/3/17 at 1:43 pm to
7am Monday Sept. 11. Has made northward turn at this point.

Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147069 posts
Posted on 9/3/17 at 1:44 pm to
quote:

7am Monday Sept. 11. Has made northward turn at this point.

which is more in line to what the Euro was saying 2 days ago instead of yesterday's 12z
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
51676 posts
Posted on 9/3/17 at 1:46 pm to
North Carolina will definitely need to watch it depending on how far north it goes before it turns back out to sea.
Posted by lsu480
Downtown Scottsdale
Member since Oct 2007
92903 posts
Posted on 9/3/17 at 1:50 pm to
So how screwed would Miami be based on that?
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
51676 posts
Posted on 9/3/17 at 1:51 pm to
Looks like it may skirt the outer banks but the center stays offshore.
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147069 posts
Posted on 9/3/17 at 1:52 pm to
looks like just a brush with the Carolina coast... keeping it mostly out to sea

Posted by HubbaBubba
North of DFW, TX
Member since Oct 2010
51647 posts
Posted on 9/3/17 at 1:52 pm to
Wow! Sending it back out to sea!

This post was edited on 9/3/17 at 1:55 pm
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147069 posts
Posted on 9/3/17 at 1:53 pm to
quote:

So how screwed would Miami be based on that?

based on that... glancing blow

too close for comfort
Posted by GEAUXT
Member since Nov 2007
30505 posts
Posted on 9/3/17 at 1:53 pm to
That would be absolutely incredible.

I guess it's pretty much a given that the Bahamas will be decimated regardless of the minor shifts in projected path though...
Posted by Dick Jacket
Member since Nov 2016
1587 posts
Posted on 9/3/17 at 1:54 pm to
That looks like Hugo.

I was a kid during Hugo and I remember evacuating Savannah with the sirens going off and my mom crying. The word was that it was going to wipe Savannah off the map. Then it turned at last minute and basically did that to Charleston.

There is nowhere between Jax and Virginia line that I would feel safe on coast
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