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Message
re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down
Posted on 9/8/17 at 1:05 pm to UAinSOUTHAL
Posted on 9/8/17 at 1:05 pm to UAinSOUTHAL
Euro thru 48hours.
2
Posted on 9/8/17 at 1:05 pm to wdhalgren
quote:
Is there really that big of a drop off in wind speed over the land? That looks like ~70 knots over water and 35 kts over land.
Nah, the hurricane intensity models are just crap for winds on land.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 1:05 pm to GeauxTigers2525
I'm assuming Liz means 22 degrees, in which case the tree is 22 ft tall.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 1:07 pm to Nawlens Gator
quote:
I'm assuming Liz means 22 degrees, in which case the tree is 22 ft tall.
Sounds like was using a range finder, so I'd imagine it was distance.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 1:08 pm to Nawlens Gator
She's saying the high-pot-nuse is 22 yards I think
This post was edited on 9/8/17 at 1:08 pm
Posted on 9/8/17 at 1:08 pm to slackster
quote:
Nah, the hurricane intensity models are just crap for winds on land.
Is that due to the rapid weakening or something to do with modeling? For example, it seems very common to never have sustained winds recorded at (sometimes even very close) to the winds rating at landfall. Why is that?
Posted on 9/8/17 at 1:09 pm to slackster
Lol, most days you can't get an answer about a serious question on the OT, but this thread is moving so fast, 5 people answered at once 
.. thanks, glad I was at least close
.. thanks, glad I was at least close Posted on 9/8/17 at 1:09 pm to UAinSOUTHAL
Is it a fair assumption that the eye impacting Cuba like this will weaken it some?
Posted on 9/8/17 at 1:09 pm to slackster
quote:
Worth noting that it initialized Irma @ 951mb, 25mb higher than she currently is.
So 938-25 = the 913 that HMON is showing.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 1:09 pm to PT24-7
Euro is trending more west for sure.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 1:10 pm to tigerpimpbot
Yeah the real threat to life during the storm is surge. I'd imagine most newish structures in south Florida can handle the wind. So then it becomes a tree gamble and post storm misery factor. And you have to compare that to the chances of running out of gas in bfe north Florida with nowhere to go.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 1:10 pm to PT24-7
quote:
Is it a fair assumption that the eye impacting Cuba like this will weaken it some?
The model apparently has it strengthening once it turns away from Cuba
Posted on 9/8/17 at 1:10 pm to Pettifogger
quote:
Is that due to the rapid weakening or something to do with modeling? For example, it seems very common to never have sustained winds recorded at (sometimes even very close) to the winds rating at landfall. Why is that?
Friction and the resulting boundary layer it developes. It exists even over the ocean, as you see flight level winds are always higher than those at the surface. It's more true when the winds hit structures and solid land.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 1:11 pm to Duke
quote:
Friction and the resulting boundary layer it developes. It exists even over the ocean, as you see flight level winds are always higher than those at the surface. It's more true when the winds hit structures and solid land.
Thanks. I don't mean to downplay wind threats, but it just seems like a 125mph storm results in a couple recorded gusts at 118 or something (and nothing sustained that high), and I never knew if that was just the product of having no recordings, equipment failure, etc.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 1:12 pm to NorthEndZone
quote:
So 938-25 = the 913 that HMON is showing.
what you're really trying to say it
Posted on 9/8/17 at 1:12 pm to UAinSOUTHAL
Euro 72H. Landfall has it just south of Tampa
This post was edited on 9/8/17 at 1:13 pm
Posted on 9/8/17 at 1:13 pm to PT24-7
quote:
Is it a fair assumption that the eye impacting Cuba like this will weaken it some?
if thats how it plays out, it'll weaken it some but, its also just as likely it stays off the coast entirely so it'll be close either way.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 1:13 pm to LaBR4
quote:
How many neighbors are staying by you...long time residents? The wind is one thing...the neighbors are confident yall will not see a storm surge?
20+ year neighbor, and he is as cool as a cucumber. He has a shingle roof and plans to lose most of 'em. I have a brand new house with a metal roof with hurricane strapping. We bought this house less than 3 months ago. *sigh* This is my SO's first 'cane.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 1:13 pm to Pettifogger
quote:
Is that due to the rapid weakening or something to do with modeling? For example, it seems very common to never have sustained winds recorded at (sometimes even very close) to the winds rating at landfall. Why is that?
Many storms on the northern gulf coast run into issues with the shallow shelf and weaken immediately before landfall. Also, the maximum wind fields are incredibly small, so finding a anemometer in that wind field is going to be pure chance. The maximum winds in the storm are also measured at 10m, so ground level could be different too.Lastly, the interaction with land will do all types of things to the strength of the storm and the wind itself. Topography has a huge impact.
ETA: And the models themselves just don't illustrate wind on land very well.
This post was edited on 9/8/17 at 1:14 pm
Posted on 9/8/17 at 1:14 pm to liz18lsu
Sounds like y'all have it as much under control as possible given the circumstances. Prayers for safety for y'all.
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