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Message

re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down

Posted on 9/7/17 at 2:07 pm to
Posted by OldSouth
Folsom, LA
Member since Oct 2011
11006 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 2:07 pm to
Yeah, that's why it's stupid to say that Orlando has nothing to worry about.
Posted by CharlesLSU
Member since Jan 2007
33653 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 2:08 pm to
the servers are in Houston I believe.....
Posted by BOSCEAUX
Where the Down Boys go.
Member since Mar 2008
52365 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 2:08 pm to
quote:

One of the great mysteries in my life is why you people thought it would be a good idea to call Columbia, 'cola'. Someone says that to me, I think Pensacola or apalachicola, not Columbia.


Same
Posted by ihometiger
Member since Dec 2013
12475 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 2:08 pm to
quote:

12z Euro is SW of 00z, it might go into the Everglades vs. Miami


This would be terrible for the Miami area because the levee system (which is equal to NOLA's Pre-K levee system) will have to withstand the water & wind pressures from Irma.

This would be almost an identical track as the 1929 Okeechobee Hurricane which had 145 mph winds killing 2500 people.


Posted by Hangit
The Green Swamp
Member since Aug 2014
46765 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 2:09 pm to
This new ECMWF run you posted does not work for me. It puts the eye at my back door in the middle of Sunday night. Can you change it for me?

TIA
Posted by LSUwag
Florida man
Member since Jan 2007
18107 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 2:09 pm to
Charlie tore the hell out of Orlando in 2004. It was mostly wind related damage. Lots of roofs torn off and tree damage. Power was out for a few weeks in some locations. Charlie was a Cat 2 when it hit Orlando.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91837 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 2:10 pm to
quote:

So it looks like this Euro run just shows the models still don't have a good idea on just when the turn to the north will happen.

I wonder if they truly won't until 12-24 hours out.


They all predict the turn, which is good news for LA folks, but things won't get cleared up for a day or two. Hell, the NHC explicitly tells you that kind of thing in their discussions.

quote:

Users are again reminded not to
focus on the exact track since the average NHC track errors at days
3, 4, and 5 are about 120, 175, and 225 miles, respectively.
Posted by Muice
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2013
1268 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 2:10 pm to
quote:

Charlie


Yeah my wife says they lost power for a week in Oviedo after Charlie.
Posted by Kcoyote
Member since Jan 2012
12050 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 2:12 pm to
So people are in agreeance that the Euro model has a Florida buzzsaw appearance and the GFS has it off the coast?
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147072 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 2:14 pm to
quote:

The high pressure ridge in the euro will shift Irma west as she strengthens to 200+ mph winds and she hits Nola dead on destroying the city and then moves to Baton Rouge destroying lsu and the TIgerdroppings servers

The world is then plunged into darkness and anarchy and the 4 horsemen come down from the clouds raining brimstone and fire

Chicken better feed the hamsters then

give them some steroids while he's at it
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147072 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 2:14 pm to
quote:

So people are in agreeance that the Euro model has a Florida buzzsaw appearance and the GFS has it off the coast?

this is tOT

we agree on nothing
Posted by weagle99
Member since Nov 2011
35893 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 2:18 pm to
quote:

CAT5 Hurricane Irma - NHC Forecast Landfall Near Miami, FL
One of the great mysteries in my life is why you people thought it would be a good idea to call Columbia, 'cola'. Someone says that to me, I think Pensacola or apalachicola, not Columbia.




Well one of those cities is a state capital and the other 2 aren't.

Would you call it 'Colu'?
This post was edited on 9/7/17 at 2:20 pm
Posted by TigerstuckinMS
Member since Nov 2005
33687 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 2:21 pm to
quote:

moves to Baton Rouge destroying lsu and the TIgerdroppings servers

Servers aren't in BR.
Posted by LSUBoo
Knoxville, TN
Member since Mar 2006
103996 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 2:22 pm to
quote:

One of the great mysteries in my life is why you people thought it would be a good idea to call Columbia, 'cola'. Someone says that to me, I think Pensacola or apalachicola, not Columbia.


That was a first for me, and took a second... immediately thought Pensacola.
Posted by LSUGrad9295
Baton Rouge
Member since May 2007
37838 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 2:22 pm to
This concept of the left turn when it gets inland seems to have appeared more frequently and out of nowhere. What would cause this?


Posted by HubbaBubba
North of DFW, TX
Member since Oct 2010
51697 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 2:24 pm to
No.

Don't let this rape turn into a homicide.
Posted by auisssa
Member since Feb 2010
4701 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 2:24 pm to
quote:

Now I have to start thinking about this thing in ATL? What can I expect if it takes that track?



My non-meteorologist guess would be a lot of rain and moderate winds.


Rain, winds, down trees and Tornado Warnings.
Posted by Carolina_Girl
South Cackalacky
Member since Apr 2012
23973 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 2:25 pm to
quote:

One of the great mysteries in my life is why you people thought it would be a good idea to call Columbia, 'cola'. Someone says that to me, I think Pensacola or apalachicola, not Columbia.


Quite simple, really.

The abbreviation for Columbia is Cola. Also, the Coca-Cola bottling plant was located in Columbia. The city's name was already abbreviated to Cola, and with the Coca-Cola plant also being there, Cola stuck and the use of the name spread among South Carolinians. Columbia is also referred to as "Soda City".
Posted by FairhopeTider
Fairhope, Alabama
Member since May 2012
22765 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 2:25 pm to
quote:

Would you call it 'Colu'?


How about we call it Columbia?
Posted by Rhino5
Atlanta
Member since Nov 2014
30959 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 2:26 pm to
quote:

This concept of the left turn when it gets inland seems to have appeared more frequently and out of nowhere. What would cause this?


I wrote this earlier today (pg 343) and is perhaps the reason:


I was watching Jim Cantore and Stephanie Abrams (nice rack btw), and he said the reason this SOB won't drift away to sea is because the jet stream up in Idaho acting as suction and will bring the hurricane to inland USA. Take it FWIW.
This post was edited on 9/7/17 at 2:27 pm
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