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re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down

Posted on 9/7/17 at 10:37 am to
Posted by cajunangelle
Member since Oct 2012
166692 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 10:37 am to
GFS 12z loading now?
Posted by OldSouth
Folsom, LA
Member since Oct 2011
11005 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 10:42 am to
yes
Posted by UncleFestersLegs
Member since Nov 2010
16879 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 10:43 am to
up to 042 now
Posted by cajunangelle
Member since Oct 2012
166692 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 10:44 am to
currently here running slow server tied up I imagine



Posted by ForeverGator
Elite 8 - 2020 Worst SECRant Poster
Member since Nov 2012
14197 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 10:44 am to
I-75 heading north was bonkers this morning on my way in. (I only have to drive a few miles of interstate to get to work). I was heading south, so I didn't have to deal with the traffic, but man, there were a shitload of cars heading North bound. I will be finding an alternative route home later though.

The I-75 corridor after I-75 and the Turnpike merge is a log jam.

Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91836 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 10:45 am to
quote:

It is expected to weaken quite a bit to a cat4 before it makes landfall in Miami though, right? Makes it much more manageable.

relatively speaking. There's a big difference between a 150mph beast and a 185mph monster.


There is a difference, but I wouldn't recommend people stay/go based on the intensity forecast at this point. The gradual weakening from the NHC is based mostly on the idea that exceptionally strong storms don't stay exceptionally strong for long, not necessarily environmental factors. The conditions are pretty favorable up until Irma makes the turn to the north, at which point shear from the SW may start to inhibit the intensity. However, Irma faced shear from the west yesterday and it didn't affect her much at all, so we'll see.

Hoping for the best.
Posted by TheGasMan
Member since Oct 2014
3484 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 10:45 am to
Ahh now we're in my wheelhouse. 50_Tiger, most of the Charleston peninsula floods with a high tide and slight rain. The South Atlantic Bight (the curve you see in the coastline from Cape Fear in Wilmington to Jacksonville, Fl) is truly why Charleston/HHI/Savannah are the Low Country. We have drastically higher tides here than anywhere to the north or south of that region. Hence the island inlets being shorter spaced and the islands being broader.

Also makes the water associated with a storm surge drastically more impactful as the high tides are so much higher.

My thesis in grad school was in this. Not looking good.
Posted by cajunangelle
Member since Oct 2012
166692 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 10:47 am to
Wow. I am on the coast of NC and some of the regular gas pumps at numerous stations are empty-closed.
Posted by HubbaBubba
North of DFW, TX
Member since Oct 2010
51673 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 10:49 am to
quote:

The Turks and the Bahamas are fricked.

Might be time to buy some land there in the coming weeks/months.
I owned the home in this picture just about a block off the ocean in Ocean Ridge (south of Palm Beach; north of Fort Lauderdale). Hoping the homes here aren't completely destroyed, but they weren't built to the standards to handle 150+ mph winds, so doubt it. Used to be six palm trees in the front yard. Wilma took them all out.



However, here's a place in Florida worth considering to buy. It'll likely be stripped completely bare after this is over. It's about a quarter mile south of the house above.Say your goodbyes to Briny Breezes, the last mobile home park existing on the entire east coast of the US.

Located here:




Close up of the park:



Here's a few images. A piece of Americana will forever be gone after Monday.







Sad for those people.
This post was edited on 9/7/17 at 10:56 am
Posted by MarcusQuinn
Member since Aug 2005
582 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 10:49 am to
Very different from what I recall. In Maine the beach shrunk by 75% at high tide and the water lines on the bulkheads showed a huge drop at low tide. I was surprised. Granted, that's way up there.
Posted by Athis
I AM Charlie Kirk....
Member since Aug 2016
16357 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 10:52 am to
The ECMWF model has Jose making a u-turn into South Florida after Irma passing through.

Tidbits
Posted by cajunangelle
Member since Oct 2012
166692 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 10:52 am to
That is sad. A lot of people love getting mobile homes for retirement so they can have money to enjoy life. Palm Harbor manufactured homes are nice.

Get busy and ready to make a gif for the GFS latest.
Posted by cajunangelle
Member since Oct 2012
166692 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 10:53 am to
up to 072

Posted by wdhalgren
Member since May 2013
5179 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 10:54 am to
quote:

I-75 heading north was bonkers this morning on my way in.


What site do you get that map from?
Posted by 50_Tiger
Arlington TX
Member since Jan 2016
43444 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 10:55 am to
Thats fricked. Cat ~2 too
Posted by 50_Tiger
Arlington TX
Member since Jan 2016
43444 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 10:55 am to
Google Maps, turn on traffic.
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147069 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 10:55 am to
AF305 about to do 4th penetration into the eye... from NW to SE
Posted by ForeverGator
Elite 8 - 2020 Worst SECRant Poster
Member since Nov 2012
14197 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 10:56 am to
Google maps, turn on the traffic feature.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21465 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 10:57 am to
12z GFS is a step towards the Euro, it should also come back onshore farther south than the last couple of runs.
Posted by cajunangelle
Member since Oct 2012
166692 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 10:57 am to
skirt chase jog to the west a tad. look at Jose behind big fat Irma.

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