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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down
Posted on 9/6/17 at 10:11 am to Chad504boy
Posted on 9/6/17 at 10:11 am to Chad504boy
quote:Friday Eve.
Today is Wednesday
What is tomorrow?
2
Posted on 9/6/17 at 10:11 am to LSURussian
Tomorrow is September
Posted on 9/6/17 at 10:11 am to Chad504boy
quote:
What is tomorrow?
Posted on 9/6/17 at 10:12 am to Centinel
quote:
Oh, and I'm officially moving the Mercedes Benz Stadium Sphincter Factor up to a 5.5 for SC.
it's catching on
Posted on 9/6/17 at 10:12 am to LSU5508
quote:
I have to assume the farther north it goes the colder the water it will interact with even if the changes are minimal
lolz...the Gulf Stream is a nice river of warm water just rolling up the coast.
Posted on 9/6/17 at 10:12 am to CptBengal
quote:I.e., a 95% confidence band/interval.
1.96 to be exact.
Posted on 9/6/17 at 10:14 am to LSURussian
Wtf happens if is swings back into the mid Atlantic? Would it most likely circle around and head back south or is it possible that a cat 4 or 5 eventually hits NYC?
Posted on 9/6/17 at 10:14 am to buckeye_vol
quote:
I.e., a 95% confidence band/interval.
Under what normalization?
Lol I fricking hated Engineering Problem Stats.
Posted on 9/6/17 at 10:15 am to TigerChief10
quote:
Wtf happens if is swings back into the mid Atlantic? Would it most likely circle around and head back south or is it possible that a cat 4 or 5 eventually hits NYC?
Jim Cantore...
Posted on 9/6/17 at 10:15 am to 50_Tiger
St Maarten airport
Posted on 9/6/17 at 10:17 am to LSU5508
Plenty of warm water to work with toward the Carolinas. Gulf stream runs right up through there.
Some land interaction could have a slight weakening affect if it near misses Florida but you're really hoping for some shear to get involved or for it to be in a down phase of it's strengthening/weakening cycle if you're in SC and it follows the NHC path perfectly.
Posted on 9/6/17 at 10:17 am to 50_Tiger
quote:
Not good baws.
Need it more East.
It's trending that way. Far more east now than it was 36 hours ago.
Posted on 9/6/17 at 10:20 am to 50_Tiger
quote:Well it's based on the normal distribution, and the central limit theorem allows it to be an approximation of other independent variables as they approximate to a normal distribution when they are aggregated.
Under what normalization?
Posted on 9/6/17 at 10:21 am to TigerChief10
quote:
Had there been a single projection today of it going into the gulf? Looks like we are officially in the clear but I'm scared for folks in Florida and along the east coast.
We are not "officially in the clear". This is from the last National Hurricane Center forecast, issued at 10:00:
quote:
Irma is forecast to turn northwestward and northward, but there is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding the exact timing and location of recurvature. The NHC forecast has been shifted eastward to be in better agreement with the latest model guidance, however it should be noted that there are numerous GEFS and ECMWF ensemble members that take Irma over and/or west of Florida.
I think this is important for people to understand. The "official" NHC forecast track is the average of all of the model runs. There are still models that put Irma in the Gulf. They "think" there will be a turn to the north, but like the report says, they honestly have no idea when that will happen.
This post was edited on 9/6/17 at 10:23 am
Posted on 9/6/17 at 10:21 am to bigpapamac
Looks like the Facebook event may be working!
Posted on 9/6/17 at 10:21 am to 50_Tiger
quote:
Under what normalization
Dont get him started
Posted on 9/6/17 at 10:24 am to buckeye_vol
quote:
Well it's based on the normal distribution, and the central limit theorem allows it to be an approximation of other independent variables as they approximate to a normal distribution when they are aggregated.
The fact that I understood that 100% makes me feel sad for a being a nerd
Posted on 9/6/17 at 10:24 am to roadGator
Branson Riding it out
Haven't seen this posted but looks like Branson chose to stay and ride this out at Necker. Probably not a good choice.
Haven't seen this posted but looks like Branson chose to stay and ride this out at Necker. Probably not a good choice.
This post was edited on 9/6/17 at 10:26 am
Posted on 9/6/17 at 10:24 am to TigerChief10
quote:
Wtf happens if is swings back into the mid Atlantic? Would it most likely circle around and head back south or is it possible that a cat 4 or 5 eventually hits NYC?
I think it would just weaken because of cooler water until it dissipates
Posted on 9/6/17 at 10:27 am to TigerDog83
Im pretty sure Bransons house is built to handle this
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