re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down

Can't Florida just have it?? When's the last time they've even REALLY had one bad enough to cancel a football game over!!

As long as it stays out to sea,I couldn't care less if the lowest pressure got to 798 millibars

Jesus H Christ. It will take up the entire gulf if it rolls through florida as a cat 4.

*sees Euro has Irma in the Fl Straights as a strong hurricane*

*hears the collective pucker of buttholes*

So, that run was far from ideal huh? Let's take a look here the way each model handles that big ridge and why the GFS and Euro have two different solutions past five days.



Euro at hour 120. There's a nice flat ridge there with no inkling of a weakness for Irma to slip into and push farther north. Keeping the track far more west than north going into D7 and beyond. Note the strength of the storm over the Great Lakes.



Here's the GFS at 126, about the same time. You can see it has the ridge a little weaker and a little slot for Irma to work in toward, as a storm like this is going to want to push north if a path is there. Furthermore the Great Lakes storm is a little weaker.

The difference isn't huge here, but enough to make a big difference. For one, you expect the ridge to strengthen as a counterpoint to the low pressure area in the NE. Develop a sort of equilibrium.

Now we'll look downstream to about the 170 hour mark and the difference in high position, strength, and nature of the eastern trough will jump right out at you.



The Euro has a monster ridge built in quite a bit farther west. There also isn't a deep digging trough over the east coast to provide a weakness along the edge of the high. Instead it's cut off part of it over the central gulf coast and the rest has migrated much farther north.



The high is weaker over the Atlantic, isn't digging nearly as far to the west, and the trough is all one nice piece providing a little channel for Irma to go north and recurve.

Guys, this argument is far from resolved and the answer won't be known for a few days yet. We're watching how that ridge evolves for the ultimate path of Irma. Keep watching, but there are still too many unknowns to trust any solution as gospel yet.

does the blue blob over LA act as a force field?

Old account I had, didn't realize they murdered third party sharing. I'll move into the future before the next set of model runs.

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does the blue blob over LA act as a force field?

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No, but it looks to correlate to the strong high building in toward Florida at that point. In a way, creating a "force" field (more like an air goes from high to low pressure and not the other way around) keeping it from curving.

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i know your name doesn't start with a p but don't tempt the hurricane gods.

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I hope the admins ban him for the next 2 weeks

smaller flight to Curacao

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Can't Florida just have it?? When's the last time they've even REALLY had one bad enough to cancel a football game over!!

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frick off