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Message
re: Hurricane Florence - Catastrophic Flooding Potential
Posted on 9/5/18 at 11:09 pm to rds dc
Posted on 9/5/18 at 11:09 pm to rds dc
Wouldn’t that incoming ridge in the western united states in that last graphic be a MAJOR prohibitor of 92L even lasting as a cyclone? Most of the models I’ve seen show that storm being ripped to shreds about the time it gets to Hispaniola.
1
Posted on 9/5/18 at 11:18 pm to TigerStripes06
quote:
Wouldn’t that incoming ridge in the western united states in that last graphic be a MAJOR prohibitor of 92L even lasting as a cyclone? Most of the models I’ve seen show that storm being ripped to shreds about the time it gets to Hispaniola.
Remember, we are getting way out in model land and the errors are getting to the point that guessing is just about as accurate. With that said, in this run there is an ULL over Louisiana in that last image. That might be one of the reasons we don't see a ridge build over the Gulf and out into the Atlantic as Florence starts to move out to sea. So with nothing to block 92L on this run, it eventually follows Florence out to sea.
Posted on 9/6/18 at 6:29 am to rds dc
Euro still trending east coast landing for Florence 8 days out; 3rd run in a row with similar results.
It also has it kicking back out to sea after landfall looping clockwise...
It also has it kicking back out to sea after landfall looping clockwise...
Posted on 9/6/18 at 7:51 am to East Coast Band
Greenwood, ms has gotten 7 inches of rain overnight and expected to get 3-4 more.
Posted on 9/6/18 at 7:59 am to rds dc
Last two GFS runs get 92L into the Gulf but in the very long range. The GEFS ensembles show a pretty steady track westward.
Still have to get past Florence before getting a clearer picture of what might happen with 92L.
Florence continues to get blasted by shear this morning. A weaker system probably makes a harder west turn over the next day or so. The overnight models show basically every possible solution that one could think of
Still have to get past Florence before getting a clearer picture of what might happen with 92L.
Florence continues to get blasted by shear this morning. A weaker system probably makes a harder west turn over the next day or so. The overnight models show basically every possible solution that one could think of
Posted on 9/6/18 at 7:59 am to deltaland
Flo getting wrecked by shear and dry air this morning.
Posted on 9/6/18 at 8:02 am to Duke
Good!
Posted on 9/6/18 at 8:10 am to deltaland
quote:
Greenwood, ms has gotten 7 inches of rain overnight and expected to get 3-4 more.
Told you some of the rainfall totals would materialize.
Posted on 9/6/18 at 8:11 am to GEAUXT
quote:
Good
In this case, not so good. A stronger Florence has a better chance of curving out to sea.
Posted on 9/6/18 at 8:24 am to slackster
I don't need the charts to know where Florence is going. I'm scheduled to fly out of JFK to DFW next Friday. It'll come close to, if not directly hitting the NYC area and I'll be stuck there.
Last year, My company stupidly planned their national sales meeting for the same week in Naples, FL. I predicted then that it would be hit with a hurricane. Yep. Sure enough. Irma.
So this year they moved it to New York. So I figure there's a 50/50 shot it'll climb up the coast and at least cause major airline traffic problems for days.
Last year, My company stupidly planned their national sales meeting for the same week in Naples, FL. I predicted then that it would be hit with a hurricane. Yep. Sure enough. Irma.
So this year they moved it to New York. So I figure there's a 50/50 shot it'll climb up the coast and at least cause major airline traffic problems for days.
Posted on 9/6/18 at 8:30 am to rds dc
Appreciate the posts rds dc. My buisiness revolves around these storms, but damn I really don’t want to spend a month on the east coast. This thing goes east of Bermuda I think she stays offshore, see it happen every year.
Posted on 9/6/18 at 8:33 am to Duke
quote:
Flo getting wrecked by shear and dry air this morning
Not surprising at all given the proximity of that huge PV streamer, it was just a matter of time. It's still shocking that it strengthened so much yesterday. That will make for a great case study for some grad student.
Posted on 9/6/18 at 8:44 am to deltaland
quote:
Greenwood, ms has gotten 7 inches of rain overnight and expected to get 3-4 more.
Basically everything along HWY 49 over to I-55 from about HWY 6 from Marks to Batesville down to HWY 16 from Yazoo City to Canton has gotten absolutely hammered. And it's still pouring south of 82.
Posted on 9/6/18 at 9:08 am to rds dc
quote:
The overnight models show basically every possible solution that one could think of
So have gulf threat to east coast to going fishing?
Guess they can’t be wrong though
Posted on 9/6/18 at 9:11 am to prostyleoffensetime
I’m leaving Tuscaloosa headed back to the delta I assume hwy is clear all the way through?
Posted on 9/6/18 at 9:27 am to rds dc
quote:
Not surprising at all given the proximity of that huge PV streamer, it was just a matter of time. It's still shocking that it strengthened so much yesterday. That will make for a great case study for some grad student.
Yeah, based on the shear maps, it wasn't in a favorable environment other than warmer SSTs.
Posted on 9/6/18 at 10:19 am to slackster
What's the time frame for 92L to enter the Gulf? 12-13 days out?
Posted on 9/6/18 at 10:39 am to prostyleoffensetime
quote:
Basically everything along HWY 49 over to I-55 from about HWY 6 from Marks to Batesville down to HWY 16 from Yazoo City to Canton has gotten absolutely hammered. And it's still pouring south of 82.
Not good for cotton and rice farmers.
Posted on 9/6/18 at 10:49 am to Duke
quote:
Flo getting wrecked by shear and dry air this morning.
Goddamn, I love these newer satellite loops. The detail and time resolution is awesome.
Posted on 9/6/18 at 10:50 am to Mudminnow
quote:
What's the time frame for 92L to enter the Gulf? 12-13 days out?
If it happens, it's 11 days out at the earliest.
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