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Message
re: Hurricane Florence - Catastrophic Flooding Potential
Posted on 9/6/18 at 11:06 am to Fat Harry
Posted on 9/6/18 at 11:06 am to Fat Harry
quote:
Not good for cotton and rice farmers.
Yeah, I’m relieved this morning. We only got 1.25 inches on our cotton, but 15 miles north of me got 4-6 inches along HWY 49 all the way up into Tallahatchie County, and it’s still raining up there it looks like.
It’s a relatively narrow band, but that narrow band is a pretty heavy cotton growing region right through there. I don’t think it’s going to be devastating from a yield standpoint. It but I would definitely expect them to run into some quality issues.
0
Posted on 9/6/18 at 11:36 am to HubbaBubba
quote:
I don't need the charts to know where Florence is going. I'm scheduled to fly out of JFK to DFW next Friday. It'll come close to, if not directly hitting the NYC area and I'll be stuck there.
You're exaggerating, this thing doesn't come any closer than 5 miles from JFK on Friday.
Posted on 9/6/18 at 2:09 pm to rds dc
Nice info rds. Going to be interesting to see how these 2 systems play out. Hopefully Florence is a problem for nobody and same with 92L.
Posted on 9/6/18 at 2:37 pm to BRIllini07
quote:
You're exaggerating, this thing doesn't come any closer than 5 miles from JFK on Friday.
So, hypothetically, what would the surge from a Cat 4 do to Long Island in a direct hit?
Posted on 9/6/18 at 2:49 pm to rds dc
Pretty good agreement between the 12z models on 92L moving into the Caribbean in 7 days.
Euro
GFS
GFS-FV3
Euro
GFS
GFS-FV3
Posted on 9/6/18 at 2:49 pm to deltaland
quote:
So, hypothetically, what would the surge from a Cat 4 do to Long Island in a direct hit?
Have you ever seen the perfect storm?
Posted on 9/6/18 at 2:50 pm to deltaland
quote:
So, hypothetically, what would the surge from a Cat 4 do to Long Island in a direct hit?
remember the hysteria from Cat 1 Sandy?
I imagine multiply that by a billion
Posted on 9/6/18 at 2:58 pm to rds dc
So if 92L goes into the Caribbean I assume a gulf storm is very likely?
Posted on 9/6/18 at 3:03 pm to rds dc
Another shift west on the Euro EPS, pure out to sea options seem to be declining but certainly still an option. This is interesting given that Florence was stronger and to the east of guidance yesterday.
00z Euro EPS
12z Euro EPS
00z Euro EPS
12z Euro EPS
Posted on 9/6/18 at 3:56 pm to rds dc
Might be time for a separate Florence thread whenever you get the chance to start one.
12z Euro has 145mph gusts over extreme NE North Carolina on Thursday morning and a powerful storm impacting Norfolk/Virginia Beach/Newport News area later that day.
Also potential for significant flooding as Gordon's remnants pull through the NE and Florence is right behind. 10 day Euro has rainfall totals north of 18 inches in parts of Virginia.
12z Euro has 145mph gusts over extreme NE North Carolina on Thursday morning and a powerful storm impacting Norfolk/Virginia Beach/Newport News area later that day.
Also potential for significant flooding as Gordon's remnants pull through the NE and Florence is right behind. 10 day Euro has rainfall totals north of 18 inches in parts of Virginia.
Posted on 9/6/18 at 4:01 pm to slackster
That’s a lot of rain....
Posted on 9/6/18 at 4:31 pm to slackster
quote:
Might be time for a separate Florence thread whenever you get the chance to start one.
Probably best to be sure she misses the trough first. Though if she does, I'll miss having the archive of info in one place.
quote:
Also potential for significant flooding as Gordon's remnants pull through the NE and Florence is right behind. 10 day Euro has rainfall totals north of 18 inches in parts of Virginia.
Us BR and Houston folks know that feeling. Though if Flo gets that close to the east coast, the probable Virgina floods will get lost in the media hypecane.
Posted on 9/6/18 at 5:33 pm to slackster
quote:
Might be time for a separate Florence thread whenever you get the chance to start one.
East Coast threats don't generally generate a lot of traffic and 92L will probably overtake Florence as the system of interest. Also, 93L moving out. I doubt Chicken wants a bunch of nerd threads mucking up the OT.
Things seem settled with Florence after the 12z runs...
Posted on 9/6/18 at 5:38 pm to rds dc
quote:
Things seem settled with Florence after the 12z runs...
Posted on 9/6/18 at 5:40 pm to rds dc
Why are we calling 92L low end gulf threat?
Looks like 25-50% chance to get in Gulf to me based on those models with it around the lesser antilles
Plus my gut has it in the gulf
Looks like 25-50% chance to get in Gulf to me based on those models with it around the lesser antilles
Plus my gut has it in the gulf
Posted on 9/6/18 at 5:50 pm to deltaland
quote:Storm Surge: Long Island
So, hypothetically, what would the surge from a Cat 4 do to Long Island in a direct hit?
Posted on 9/6/18 at 5:54 pm to HubbaBubba
Time to batten down the hatches at my Southampton and Montauk homes or too soon?
Posted on 9/6/18 at 5:57 pm to HubbaBubba
quote:
HubbaBubba
HIJACK......BEST AVA on the whole site..............
Posted on 9/6/18 at 6:13 pm to Cosmo
quote:
Why are we calling 92L low end gulf threat?
Looks like 25-50% chance to get in Gulf to me based on those models with it around the lesser antilles
Plus my gut has it in the gulf
The end of the last gfs run had it crossing the Yucatán into the gulf then hitting the East coast of mexico.
But that’s so far out from now it’s just a guess anyways
Posted on 9/6/18 at 6:23 pm to rds dc
quote:
East Coast threats don't generally generate a lot of traffic and 92L will probably overtake Florence as the system of interest. Also, 93L moving out. I doubt Chicken wants a bunch of nerd threads mucking up the OT.
Fair enough, but if things get a little clearer with Florence, perhaps you can put a placeholder on page 100 for current maps and stuff and reference it in the title.
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