re: Hurricane Florence - Catastrophic Flooding Potential

No, but I should have gone fishin’ last night.

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Just got a weather channel “breaking news” - Florence strengthens to Cat 3 in the Atlantic. Let the hype train begin now that Gordon is over.

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I love the weather as much as anyone but if I got TWC notifications I’d blow my brains out

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This is such an odd storm. Huge gap between the center of rotation and the rain. Hardly anything in the state of MS and I was expecting 3-5 inches of rain here in the delta. Haven’t got so much as a drizzle and the center is 80 miles south of me right now. Looks like I won’t get anything as I think the gap will continue to pass over me and the rain will go to north MS around batesville

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This unexpected shift has been a godsend for some of my late beans in NE Mississippi

I don’t recall you being involved in grain but if you are I know it’s been the exact opposite for you

One thing about farming, with weather your gain is usually someone else’s loss which kinda sucks

One thing that needs to be considered in the Gordon "hype" debate is how little we still know about intensity forecasting. It has improved over the years but Florence is an example of a massive short range forecasting bust. The NHC is going to take a 24hr forecast error of 45kt on this one. Now think if that would've happened with Gordon in the Gulf?

Yesterday, no one was thinking Florence would be doing this today.

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One thing that needs to be considered in the Gordon "hype" debate is how little we still know about intensity forecasting. It has improved over the years but Florence is an example of a massive short range forecasting bust. The NHC is going to take a 24hr forecast error of 45kt on this one. Now think if that would've happened with Gordon in the Gulf?

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INIT 24/0300Z 21.9N 92.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 22.8N 93.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 24.1N 94.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 25.4N 95.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 26.6N 96.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 28.5N 97.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND

The 10 pm Wednesday Harvey forecast.

48 hours later:

...EYE OF CATEGORY 4 HARVEY MAKES LANDFALL BETWEEN PORT ARANSAS AND
PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS...
...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING EXPECTED DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORM
SURGE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 97.0W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ENE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SW OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES

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Rainfall projections from the 12z NAM model:

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That thing has 6-9 inches of rain on me. It can get fricked

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has improved over the years but Florence is an example of a massive short range forecasting bust. The NHC is going to take a 24hr forecast error of 45kt on this one. Now think if that would've happened with Gordon in the Gulf?

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That’s what happened with Harvey last year in 48 hours and nobody evacuated Houston because it was supposed to be a weak storm, and you’re correct 36 hours ago Florence was a TS and supposed to weaken before getting stronger. Instead it blew up.

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catfish farm. Water doesn’t hurt my crop

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Yea I knew that’s what you mainly did

You should get into some row crop, you obviously need some more stress in your life

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No longer farm in the Delta but I’ll tell you there’s is a whole LOT MORE crop still in the field of both beans and corn and cotton than you seem to think All that rain in the spring pushed everyone back

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I farm in the delta, and didn’t suggest that there wasn’t a lot of crop in the field.

I would guess like 1-2% of the cotton has been picked. Less than 10% has even been defoliated

A lot of people are finished/wrapping up corn harvest. It should be fine since we’re not getting much wind at all out of this.

Soybeans, maybe 20% harvested, probably more like 10-15%, but like I said, if the sun comes on out Friday and Saturday, they should weather it pretty well.

If it stays nasty through the weekend, we’ll have some real issues with deteriorating cotton quality and soybean damage on our hands.

Supposed to fly through baltimore next thursday night to nola, looks right around the time that florence should be nearby . About to spend some extra $$ and book delta through detroit...