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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Florence - Catastrophic Flooding Potential
Posted on 9/12/18 at 9:55 pm to Walt OReilly
Posted on 9/12/18 at 9:55 pm to Walt OReilly
quote:
So this hurricane isn’t going to be as bad as expected?
It's not even really a hurricane at this point. The real danger is 95L.
0
Posted on 9/12/18 at 9:55 pm to tgrbaitn08
quote:
Did Florence just get Whiskey dick?
Is this going to be a bigger dud than Matthew?
I know a lot of people who lost their homes and everything else they had to Matthew. That storm wasn't a dud.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 9:55 pm to slackster
quote:
They're going to say "110 mph might be a bit generous" in the discussion, watch.
quote:
Based on the latter data, the initial intensity reduced to a probably generous 95 kt.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 9:56 pm to slackster
5 day forecast is guessing nearly 25% of the lower 48 states, yea somewhere yonder
Posted on 9/12/18 at 9:56 pm to slackster
quote:
They're going to say "110 mph might be a bit generous" in the discussion, watch.
Boom.
quote:
Satellite data and reports from Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate significant changes in the structure of Florence and the environment near the storm since the last advisory. Microwave satellite imagery shows that the convection on the southern side of the storm has been disrupted, and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate the eyewall now wraps less than 50 percent of the way around the center. The aircraft also reports that the hurricane again has concentric wind maxima, the inner at a radius 20-30 n mi and the outer at 50-60 n mi. The convection seems to have been affected by 20-25 kt of southerly vertical wind shear, most of which appears to be due to strong winds between 200-250 mb seen in dropsonde data from the NOAA G-IV jet. The central pressure has risen to 957 mb, and the maximum 700-mb flight-level winds reported so far are 103 kt. Based on the latter data, the initial intensity reduced to a probably generous 95 kt.
Should have changed my prediction to knots though.
This post was edited on 9/12/18 at 9:56 pm
Posted on 9/12/18 at 9:56 pm to lsuman25
There’s going to be some pissed off hillbillies over there that had to evacuate their trailer parks.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 9:58 pm to HoldenOversoul
quote:
know a lot of people who lost their homes and everything else they had to Matthew. That storm wasn't a dud.
Most storms aren't a dud for a good chunk or people. If this storm came ashore at anything less than a strong 4 people would call it a dud. A week of hype will do that, particularly on this site.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 9:58 pm to LaBR4
We have the best forecasters in the world. Had anyone else been on the clock and this thing would have easily been a Cat5.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 9:59 pm to tgrbaitn08
All's well here in Cola we're just glad we didn't have to leave Cola and that the flood thread seems to be diminishing in Cola
Posted on 9/12/18 at 10:00 pm to NorthEndZone
I hate all these people have gone through the trouble of evacuating and preparing for a major hurricane, but the only thing better than having to go through all that mess is not having a major hurricane hit you. I don’t see the problem with it being downgraded. I am happy for the east coast. Hope it fizzles out even more....
Posted on 9/12/18 at 10:02 pm to lsuman25
quote:
The dynamical models forecast the current shear to subside after 6-12 h as Florence moves farther from an upper-level low currently near northeastern Florida. This, combined with sea surface
temperatures near 29C, would allow a last chance for strengthening before landfall. However, the storm structure, particularly the large outer wind maxima, would likely be slow to respond to the more favorable environment. The pre-landfall part of the intensity
forecast thus calls for little change in strength, but given the uncertainties the confidence in this is low. After landfall,
Florence should gradually weaken during the 36-48 h period while
the center is near the coast, then weaken more quickly when the center moves farther inland.
Worth noting the NHC still sees a window available for strengthening.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 10:02 pm to CorkSoaker
Now you'll have a bunch of retards on Facebook claiming how they are smarter then the forcasters. Better to have people overprepared then not ready at all for a category 5
This post was edited on 9/12/18 at 10:03 pm
Posted on 9/12/18 at 10:03 pm to UncleFestersLegs
quote:
quote: They're going to say "110 mph might be a bit generous" in the discussion, watch. quote: Based on the latter data, the initial intensity reduced to a probably generous 95 kt.
95 knots = 109.324 mph
Posted on 9/12/18 at 10:03 pm to dawgfan24348
Solution to that: don’t read Facebook
Posted on 9/12/18 at 10:04 pm to slackster
quote:
Worth noting the NHC still sees a window available for strengthening.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 10:04 pm to Pettifogger
quote:
All's well here in Cola we're just glad we didn't have to leave Cola and that the flood thread seems to be diminishing in Cola
Glad for you baw.
At least you could have gone west about a few hours to Biloxi and avoided all of it. 
Posted on 9/12/18 at 10:04 pm to rds dc
Cat 2
Posted on 9/12/18 at 10:05 pm to UncleFestersLegs
Storm surge is still going to be bad, regardless of the sustained winds dropping
Posted on 9/12/18 at 10:05 pm to weadjust
quote:
quote: They're going to say "110 mph might be a bit generous" in the discussion, watch. quote: Based on the latter data, the initial intensity reduced to a probably generous 95 kt.
95 knots = 109.324 mph
Posted on 9/12/18 at 10:05 pm to dawgfan24348
I’ll be interested to see the analysis of what happened to cause her to weaken when it didn’t seem like she should have. I assume 95L probably influenced it some. Maybe upwelling some too. It’s a strange one.
And everyone will be upset that it wasn’t as bad it seemed like it would be and will claim that meteorologists are just paid to be wrong.
And everyone will be upset that it wasn’t as bad it seemed like it would be and will claim that meteorologists are just paid to be wrong.
This post was edited on 9/12/18 at 10:07 pm
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