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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Florence - Catastrophic Flooding Potential
Posted on 9/12/18 at 10:05 pm to CorkSoaker
Posted on 9/12/18 at 10:05 pm to CorkSoaker
quote:
hate all these people have gone through the trouble of evacuating and preparing for a major hurricane, but the only thing better than having to go through all that mess is not having a major hurricane hit you. I don’t see the problem with it being downgraded. I am happy for the east coast. Hope it fizzles out even more....
Yep. It's funny that people seem upset they left for "nothing", as if you'd feel better about leaving if you came home to a leveled home.
2
Posted on 9/12/18 at 10:06 pm to slackster
I like how I got downvoted earlier for saying this storm would be nothin as drastic as people are making it. Looks like I’m right
Posted on 9/12/18 at 10:07 pm to Macintosh
quote:
like how I got downvoted earlier for saying this storm would be nothin as drastic as people are making it. Looks like I’m right
It won't be nothing though. You were still wrong.
ETA - but hopefully you're right. Hopefully it turns out like tropical depression Paul...
This post was edited on 9/12/18 at 10:09 pm
Posted on 9/12/18 at 10:08 pm to Macintosh
quote:
I like how I got downvoted earlier for saying this storm would be nothin as drastic as people are making it. Looks like I’m right
Was your prediction based on statistical and mathematical analysis, or pulling it out of your arse with zero understanding of what was going on?
If the former, I salute you sir. If the latter....even a functional retard is correct on occasion.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 10:08 pm to Macintosh
So. You guessed with no information and got lucky it happened. Congrats I guess. The nws should hire you.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 10:09 pm to Tiger Ryno
Posted on 9/12/18 at 10:09 pm to slackster
quote:
It's funny that people seem upset they left for "nothing",
95 sustained, with 115 gusts, and 3 feet of water in you kitchen still aint nothing nice.
A lot of old growth trees are still coming down. I just hope they all miss the houses.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 10:10 pm to Tiger Ryno
I’ve always had a knack for these things based off little basic analysis. Should have been a meteorologist. Louisiana universities really need to promote these types of studies
Posted on 9/12/18 at 10:11 pm to CorkSoaker
quote:
I don’t see the problem with it being downgraded. I am happy for the east coast. Hope it fizzles out even more....
Everyone I’m sure agrees with you.
That’s not the point though.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 10:12 pm to Macintosh
The real hero is peej. Flo was a Cat 4 when he said it would be horrible.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 10:13 pm to slackster
Stop watching things for a couple of hours and now Flo's dead huh?
Posted on 9/12/18 at 10:14 pm to PsychTiger
quote:
The real hero is peej. Flo was a Cat 4 when he said it would be horrible.
Seriously? I mean that should have been the end of discussion of this storm if that were the case.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 10:14 pm to Centinel
quote:
even a functional retard is correct on occasion.
He is about 4' tall, living the life of a hobbit. Let him go. He needs the W.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 10:14 pm to PsychTiger
quote:
The real hero is peej. Flo was a Cat 4 when he said it would be horrible.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 10:17 pm to Duke
quote:
Stop watching things for a couple of hours and now Flo's dead huh?
Like a fart in the wind.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 10:18 pm to Duke
quote:
Stop watching things for a couple of hours and now Flo's dead huh?
Looks like recon just found 97 mph winds, but that's the highest they recorded in 3 hours. Flo is a mess, but hurricane winds are still pretty wide to the N and E. NWS says 80 miles from the center.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 10:22 pm to NYNolaguy1
quote:
quote:
Most storms start to lose their southern half as they move up in latitude along the east coast.
quote:
quote:Sub/extra tropical systems at a much further latitude I would agree, but shes barely above the latitude of New Orleans.
You can get sub tropical systems in the Gulf. The reason that systems rarely ever take the Florence route is because they get caught up with mid-lat troughs, turn out to sea, and transition to sub/extratropical.
This is a synoptic composite image and it is a good way to see these types of transitions. As Florence approaches the coast, it is cutoff from the mid-lat flow (blue areas) by the blocking highs (red circles). This approach is almost purely tropical and pretty unusual for the East Coast. Typically, we would see a system approaching the EC and merging with a trough (blue area) with the arrows pointing N/NE towards the trough. The area in the black circle is kind of what we would expect to see, although not a perfect match.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 10:24 pm to rds dc
107 mph at the surface-ish. Kinda sorta validates the NHC 11pm update.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 10:27 pm to slackster
quote:
Flo is a mess, but hurricane winds are still pretty wide to the N and E. NWS says 80 miles from the center.
She was a mess at five but I see the shear you showed from the drops earlier did a hell of a number on the south side. She never really got back together from the EWCR this morning. As that ULL keeps digging away south and she hits the gulf stream, I'd expect the convection to pick up on the south side but sheeeeeeeet there's no way a storm that big will ever really get the inner core wrapped up and symmetrical with such little time left.
She seems almost like a Cat 1 storm with a 80 mile wide "eyewall". Which will suck for a whole lot of people.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 10:28 pm to slackster
Any models get both the track right and call for wind speed reduction so far?
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