re: Hurricane Florence - Catastrophic Flooding Potential

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Hurricane Florence - Catastrophic Flooding Potential - (95L NHC 70% & Isaac?) by deltaland


Some pretty good convection on the southwest part of the eye.

I may be wrong but looking at the areas where Levi pointed out the evidence of shear, looks as if that’s dissipated some. Those small clouds far to the southwest were being pushed north against the circulation during the shear but now appear to be going with the rotation, and seeing moisture flare up as well which I think would indicate less dry air. She may be trying to make one last push. Will depend if she can wrap up the eye and push out remaining dry air I guess?

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Nah, look at the tops of those clouds in the southern part of the image. They're blowing into the storm, which means there is a west wind at the low/mid levels and a south wind in the upper levels. That's shear, and it's still present.

ETA - we know there is a west wind due to the rotation of the storm.

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I know this seems to happen a bit and my supposition is that as the hurricanes approach their counterclockwise circulation can pull in drier continental air into a weaker southern flank whereas a Gulf type storm generally has all water to feed the inflow of the storm.

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They also tend to get elongated due to the steering forces that are usually taking them northward.

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Would suit me just fine if all these storms fall apart. They were pretty to watch in the open water, but it would be great to not have so many people get their lives destroyed.

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No doubt about that.

They just closed VCU from thurs-sunday even after the most recent updates.

We are 2.5 hours inland and 4 hours north of where landfall is. Our area is only predicted to get 2-3" at this point.

oh hey... they found a leftover dropsonde on board and dropped it in the eye of Flo

either 956 or 957 mb

Does it look like this will go down to a Cat 2 tonight?

Latest:

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Sub/extra tropical systems at a much further latitude I would agree, but shes barely above the latitude of New Orleans.

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Florence is working her way up pretty good. The steering currents and normal conditions where she is now are way different on the east coast than they are in the Gulf.

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I'd bet Florence gets downgraded to a Cat 2 with 100mph winds in the next update.

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