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re: Hurricane Florence - Catastrophic Flooding Potential

Posted on 9/12/18 at 7:39 pm to
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
177253 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 7:39 pm to
Most storms start to lose their southern half as they move up in latitude along the east coast.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 7:40 pm to
quote:

It's 150 miles wider than Katrina



Not by hurricane force winds. Katrina was ~300 miles across between hurricane force winds. As of the latest advisory, Florence is about 140 miles across with hurricane force winds.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 7:41 pm to
quote:

Hard to believe Isaac is a TS with 60 mph winds at this point. Looks like a disorganized wave


NHC said they actually found 60 mph winds far removed to Isaac's north earlier today. Even without the convection the winds can exist for a while.
This post was edited on 9/12/18 at 7:42 pm
Posted by Maytheporkbewithyou
Member since Aug 2016
14120 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 7:49 pm to
Would suit me just fine if all these storms fall apart. They were pretty to watch in the open water, but it would be great to not have so many people get their lives destroyed.
Posted by 50_Tiger
Arlington TX
Member since Jan 2016
43447 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 7:51 pm to
Who cares about the wind. Some of you are seriously forgetting the water aspect.
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147073 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 7:52 pm to
did the plane in Florence forget to bring dropsondes?

what's going on?
Posted by tgrbaitn08
Member since Dec 2007
148031 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 7:53 pm to
Dr Knabb is the most annoying TV personality I think I've ever seen....

He's like a 5 year old child that has to pee but cant get to the bathroom quick enough so he stands there and holds his wee wee and cant keep still

Dude needs to lower or maybe up his ADD medicine.
Posted by tokenBoiler
Lafayette, Indiana
Member since Aug 2012
5046 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 7:53 pm to
quote:

Yes as soon as it is possible truckloads of water will arrive at Anheuser Busch wholesalers in the affected areas and they begin distributing it in the communities through disaster relief agencies or simply by dropping pallets of it off at shelters for people to come and get. I worked for AB for many years which is how I know how it works.




Good stuff. Thanks!
Posted by NYNolaguy1
Member since May 2011
21764 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 7:55 pm to
quote:

Most storms start to lose their southern half as they move up in latitude along the east coast.


Sub/extra tropical systems at a much further latitude I would agree, but shes barely above the latitude of New Orleans.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 7:57 pm to
quote:

did the plane in Florence forget to bring dropsondes?

what's going on?



Probably just slow loading to his website.
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147073 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 7:59 pm to
1005 mb at the surface in the eye of Isaac
Posted by CidCock
Member since Sep 2007
Member since Feb 2011
8692 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 8:04 pm to
Present
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
102609 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 8:04 pm to
quote:

did the plane in Florence forget to bring dropsondes?



That guy had one job...
Posted by jackmanusc
Columbia, SC
Member since Apr 2012
3948 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 8:07 pm to
We should do a happy hour at pizza joint
Posted by CajunTiger92
Member since Dec 2007
2868 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 8:09 pm to
Things don’t look to good for south TX.

Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
102609 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 8:13 pm to


Some pretty good convection on the southwest part of the eye.

I may be wrong but looking at the areas where Levi pointed out the evidence of shear, looks as if that’s dissipated some. Those small clouds far to the southwest were being pushed north against the circulation during the shear but now appear to be going with the rotation, and seeing moisture flare up as well which I think would indicate less dry air. She may be trying to make one last push. Will depend if she can wrap up the eye and push out remaining dry air I guess?

I’m still trying to learn about all of this. Very intriguing

ETA can’t get damn gif to work
This post was edited on 9/12/18 at 8:19 pm
Posted by Ignignot
Member since Mar 2009
18823 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 8:13 pm to
What's the long term forecast/spaghetti models for isaac looking like
Posted by LaBR4
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2005
53878 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 8:18 pm to
Now Jeff will be almost falling down and screaming tomorrow with winds coming in a 45 mph, but this is actually a good update. He's driven the coast the last few days and talks about the roads and the area of Wilmington. Worth the watch, IMHO

Jeff Periscope Update
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147073 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 8:19 pm to
quote:

What's the long term forecast/spaghetti models for isaac looking like

it's got to survive hell over the next 3-4 days... as it's pushing right into heavy shear

if... IF... it survives and gets to the back half of the Caribbean then a turn into the Gulf is possible but still way too far out to know anything
Posted by Crimson1st
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2010
21109 posts
Posted on 9/12/18 at 8:19 pm to
quote:

Most storms start to lose their southern half as they move up in latitude along the east coast.




I know this seems to happen a bit and my supposition is that as the hurricanes approach their counterclockwise circulation can pull in drier continental air into a weaker southern flank whereas a Gulf type storm generally has all water to feed the inflow of the storm.
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