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re: Hurricane Florence - Catastrophic Flooding Potential

Posted on 9/10/18 at 11:53 am to
Posted by NYNolaguy1
Member since May 2011
21764 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 11:53 am to
quote:

RIP Outer Banks. Seriously, some islands will be underwater for 3.5 days with storm surge.


I saw some SLOSH models putting storm surge at 15-20'. At that elevation whole buildings will be underwater for days.
Posted by GetCocky11
Calgary, AB
Member since Oct 2012
53509 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 11:53 am to
I'm a noob, so please help me.

I read that a stronger storm can override the high pressure, causing a northern turn? Can you elaborate?
Posted by TheGasMan
Member since Oct 2014
3484 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 11:53 am to
quote:

notiger1997


I got pulled off the research vessel this AM. I'm currently at BWI awaiting my flight to Charleston so I can make sure my house is good to go. Unfortunately my house sits at 3.87 feet above sea level (RTK vertical datum verified, mean high high water, dont ask) so if it sprinkles during a high tide, my street floods.

You would think with my background, I would've bought a more surge resistant house. Unfortunately, I drink too much, and made an impusle/ignorant purchase.
Posted by Powerman
Member since Jan 2004
173552 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 11:55 am to
quote:

Healthy strengthening and keeps looking better on satellite. Going to make a run at 5 it looks like.



Already at Cat 4 now

This thing is going to be a monster
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
102583 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 11:55 am to
quote:

Yeah, this will get everyone's attention. As bad as the coastal impacts will likely be, I hope everyone is just as mindful of the rain to come.


My concern is most people aren’t like us and don’t follow the specifics. I fear thousands will head inland to wait it out only to get trapped in flood waters
Posted by NYNolaguy1
Member since May 2011
21764 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 11:55 am to
quote:

You would think with my background, I would've bought a more surge resistant house. Unfortunately, I drink too much, and made an impusle/ignorant purchase.




Just get a couple of these and you'll be fine .
This post was edited on 9/10/18 at 11:57 am
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91837 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 11:56 am to
quote:

Looks like a hurricane wind field of abt 100 miles wide atm. Also pressure down to 942mb.


We'll see if that 942 verifies.

As for the wind field, 50 MPH sustained ground level winds extend about 90 miles to the north of the storm right now, based on verified dropsonde data. The flight level stuff that is extrapolated is hit or miss.
Posted by wickowick
Head of Island
Member since Dec 2006
46359 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 11:56 am to
quote:

At that elevation whole buildings will be underwater for days.


No, unfortunately, those buildings will be gone.
Posted by otowntiger
O-Town
Member since Jan 2004
16919 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 11:56 am to
quote:

The only thing that will impede it is an EWRC, but if/when that happens this will grow into a giant storm.
also dry air and wind shear, and the latter is very hard to predict apparently
Posted by Dlab2013
Pineville, Luzianna
Member since Jun 2013
9527 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 11:56 am to
How far inland do y’all think will be safe? Still trying to plan where to stage up on Sunday...
Posted by GetCocky11
Calgary, AB
Member since Oct 2012
53509 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 11:57 am to
quote:

How far inland do y’all think will be safe? Still trying to plan where to stage up on Sunday...



You still want to be within a few hours of the damage area right?
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91837 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 11:57 am to
quote:

I read that a stronger storm can override the high pressure, causing a northern turn? Can you elaborate?


Hurricanes, for all their might, are kinda pussies when it comes to steering themselves.

Stronger storms will catch a weakness in a ridge, but they don't usually create their own.
Posted by Dlab2013
Pineville, Luzianna
Member since Jun 2013
9527 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 11:59 am to
quote:

You still want to be within a few hours of the damage area right?




Correct. But I realize it may not be possible to actually get on sight until Wens
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147072 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 12:00 pm to
quote:

also dry air and wind shear, and the latter is very hard to predict apparently

I think what he's trying to say is there's currently forecast to be no dry air nor wind shear by the storm

Levi at Tropical Tidbits has been saying that for the last few days... talking about the lack of factors that could hinder the storm's development
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 12:00 pm to
quote:

I read that a stronger storm can override the high pressure, causing a northern turn?


They don't run through a high pressure but can sometimes can find a weakness in the upper levels due to the depth of the system. Just remember, shite doesn't flow from low pressure to high pressure. So this storm is still all about the strength of the high and how it lines up. Flo will follow the edge of it.
Posted by wickowick
Head of Island
Member since Dec 2006
46359 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 12:00 pm to
quote:

How far inland do y’all think will be safe? Still trying to plan where to stage up on Sunday...


There is no need to stage on Sunday, there is no need to head that way till late next week at the earliest.
Posted by PsychTiger
Member since Jul 2004
109160 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 12:01 pm to
quote:

I wonder if the Cajun Navy will mobilize to go that far? Our fellow Americans in the Carolinas will need the help. Widespread flooding in many very rural areas plus a lot of urban areas


If they do, I'm down for hosting a watch party at my place for the LSU-Auburn game.
Posted by GetCocky11
Calgary, AB
Member since Oct 2012
53509 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 12:01 pm to
quote:

Correct. But I realize it may not be possible to actually get on sight until Wens


I mean, I still think you'd be safe in Columbia. It'll be wet, but nothing like what NC will be getting (if the models stay true).

There is also Augusta.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91837 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 12:02 pm to
quote:

How far inland do y’all think will be safe? Still trying to plan where to stage up on Sunday...


Columbia, SC would be a decent place to start IMO.
Posted by Pettifogger
I don't really care, Margaret
Member since Feb 2012
87289 posts
Posted on 9/10/18 at 12:03 pm to
quote:

cajunangelle


Just looked and saw several newer/decent looking chains in Augusta listed as pet-friendly
(via TripAdvisor)
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