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1
Posted on 9/10/18 at 11:28 am to BRIllini07
frick me.
12z GFS stalls Florence off the coast of NC at 102 hours, drifts her around 100 or so miles, then takes her into the central NC coast.
All the while the pressures are Cat 5 strength.
12z GFS stalls Florence off the coast of NC at 102 hours, drifts her around 100 or so miles, then takes her into the central NC coast.
All the while the pressures are Cat 5 strength.
Posted on 9/10/18 at 11:29 am to tide06
quote:
Am I seeing a 905mb on that projection?!
What does that even correlate to as far as estimated wind speed?
For reference Katrina was 902mb at peak strength. So in essence a category 5 stalling off the coast over the gulf stream then slowly moving inland and giving someone a bad day.
Posted on 9/10/18 at 11:29 am to deuce985
Looking at the forecast models, Florence's rain would start around Friday and continue nonstop through Tuesday+. 
Posted on 9/10/18 at 11:29 am to tide06
quote:
Am I seeing a 903mb on that projection?!
What does that even correlate to as far as estimated wind speed?
178mph
Posted on 9/10/18 at 11:30 am to tide06
905 is healthy in the five range. You'd expect 170ish from that pressure but that's definitely overdone. That's Katrina's max pressure and would smash the record for a pressure that low that far north.
Posted on 9/10/18 at 11:31 am to rds dc
quote:
12z GFS looks like a best case scenario with system just missing the Outer Banks and now drifting away. Start of a trend?
Remember when it looked like a best case scenario at 120 hours?
Posted on 9/10/18 at 11:31 am to tgrbaitn08
If you a direct line on I 77 and go east (basically from columbia Sc to NC/vs border) everything east of there is going to flood. Depending on south North track of storm.
I'm going to Augusta. Prob Thursday
I'm going to Augusta. Prob Thursday
Posted on 9/10/18 at 11:31 am to Duke
So in other words we just went from very serious situation to a generational storm projection, is that a fair characterization?
Posted on 9/10/18 at 11:32 am to Rox
quote:Uh... Did you mean Wednesday?
Florence's rain would start around Friday
Posted on 9/10/18 at 11:32 am to tide06
as of now, yes
Posted on 9/10/18 at 11:33 am to DawgCountry
I have to give the grocery stores credit. They're busting at the seams with water.
Posted on 9/10/18 at 11:33 am to Bruco
quote:Our corporate HQ recently relocated to Rock Hill, SC. Rainfall totals are looking ridiculous in the area.
Charlotte pucker factor at 6 but accelerating quickly. Seems like most people weren’t paying attention over the weekend but some eyes are being opened now.
Posted on 9/10/18 at 11:33 am to GetCocky11
I wouldn't look at any one model man but no, it's not garbage. Euro and GFS are considered the most reliable. What you look at when you watch these runs on the computer models is how consistent they are on trends. You can sometimes just throw out runs as outliers and ignore them because 24 hours later they just align more with the others again. If you start seeing the other computer models like Euro do something similar then you start noticing trends because they're agreeing. You want them agreeing because that makes it less uncertain even if it's bad news for someone. Lots of probability in there. That said, GFS could be picking up on a trend before the other computer models so we'll just have to wait and see. As of now it's the outlier because the others are not agreeing with GFS...yet.
Posted on 9/10/18 at 11:34 am to slackster
quote:
158 mph winds found ~1800 feet above the surface. Those tend to cycle down over time.
just a FYI (not you slack... I know you know... but for others who don't)
104 kt winds at the surface is about 120 mph
Posted on 9/10/18 at 11:36 am to rt3
Last bit of GOES imagery showing expanding eye.
Posted on 9/10/18 at 11:36 am to GetCocky11
Recon abt to make a pass through NE quadrant.
Posted on 9/10/18 at 11:37 am to NYNolaguy1
quote:
Theres are posters on Dr Jeff Masters blog claiming recon found 130 mph winds at the surface already in the SW quadrant..
If true this one may be headed to Cat 5 status before it’s all set and done
Posted on 9/10/18 at 11:38 am to tide06
quote:
So in other words we just went from very serious situation to a generational storm projection, is that a fair characterization?
Im of the mind it's kind of ridiculous but yes, would be a generational type storm if that played out.
Posted on 9/10/18 at 11:39 am to Duke
quote:
905 is healthy in the five range. You'd expect 170ish from that pressure but that's definitely overdone. That's Katrina's max pressure and would smash the record for a pressure that low that far north.
Yeah, the max wind gusts on the GFS don't really jive with the 900-910mb pressure it's suggesting, but they're very dangerous nonetheless.
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