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Posted on 8/30/19 at 4:18 am to TigerStripes06
quote:
Holy hell the end of the 00z Euro run is drunk as frick
Euro has 2 more storms forming looks like they would stay out to sea worry about that much later concern is on Dorian for now.
Posted on 8/30/19 at 4:23 am to lsuman25
quote:
Euro has 2 more storms forming looks like they would stay out to sea worry about that much later concern is on Dorian for now
Wut
Posted on 8/30/19 at 4:31 am to uscpuke
The Euro forms 2 more storms in the Atlantic in the extended range, but it looks like Dorian would still have the ridge eroded making them go northward. Like I said that is late in the model run so might not even happen anyway Dorian is the concern for people now especially FLorida and the East Coast.
Posted on 8/30/19 at 5:09 am to lsuman25
06z GFS running now.
Posted on 8/30/19 at 5:13 am to TigerFred
quote:
Was sitting on roof in Avondale after Andrew when I picked them up.
Subtle "I still had a roof after Andrew" brag.
Posted on 8/30/19 at 5:34 am to liz18lsu
Hey Liz, One station is saying this is going to roll by your house, take a hard right and come to mine. Others are saying it is going to come straight to my house, retreat almost to the everglades, then come back to my house.
Another is saying it could slow down enough to be pushed up the east coast. Those people got 28" of rain in 24 hours during Matthew.
Either way, this is a Redneck Divorce hurricane. Somebody is going to lose a trailer. Good luck.
Another is saying it could slow down enough to be pushed up the east coast. Those people got 28" of rain in 24 hours during Matthew.
Either way, this is a Redneck Divorce hurricane. Somebody is going to lose a trailer. Good luck.
Posted on 8/30/19 at 5:42 am to la_birdman
quote:I feel you. I had a place about a block off the ocean in Ocean Ridge, just south of where Francis came in. I was traveling on business in Oklahoma, not sure where she was coming in, but just to be safe, I went to a Home Depot, purchased and shipped overnight two Honda power generators, two window AC units and six 5 gallon gas cans by Fed Ex to my renter living on the other side of my duplex. Cost me a fortune. It was a good call. There wasn't a generator to be found in Florida. My renter put up my storm covers on all the windows.
la_birdman
I returned the second day after it hit. I hadn't heard from my renter and could barely get there. But when I finally made it, my generators had made it, and we had power. Most neighbors didn't for about 10 more days.
We had a fridge, lights and in the evenings we had been able to cool the kitchen/dining/living room areas to sleep in. We had neighbor sleeping on the floor on blow up mattresses and sleeping bags because it was just miserable at their places.
It's not fun, for sure. People making light of it have no idea how hard it can be.
Posted on 8/30/19 at 5:49 am to slackster
About as much agreement in the GFS and Euro as you'll ever see 4+ days out.
00z GFS
00z Euro
00z GFS
00z Euro
Posted on 8/30/19 at 5:53 am to slackster
Goddamit that is literally a direct hit on where I live. Frick.
Posted on 8/30/19 at 5:59 am to liz18lsu
The biggest issue with fuel in Florida is that the residents have blocked any pipelines being built, so it essentially all comes into the state by water through Tampa, Jacksonville and Port Everglades (Miami). When the ports close, it has to be trucked in, so contraflow can’t be employed to evacuate people North because the fuel trucks have to go South for supply. Luckily fuel inventories are good at present, but evacuations and panic buying can change that quickly.
Posted on 8/30/19 at 5:59 am to tigerpimpbot
quote:
Goddamit that is literally a direct hit on where I live. Frick.
Sorry to hear that man. West Palm Beach? They take a direct hit from the northern eyewall in those two runs.
Posted on 8/30/19 at 6:01 am to slackster
959? Yikes
Posted on 8/30/19 at 6:09 am to Icansee4miles
Dorian is starting to have convective bursts on either side of the center.
It seems to be dealing with the drier air well, and the eye may start to clear out again soon. The NHC is calling for a major storm status later today, which makes sense.
It seems to be dealing with the drier air well, and the eye may start to clear out again soon. The NHC is calling for a major storm status later today, which makes sense.
Posted on 8/30/19 at 6:09 am to tigerpimpbot
quote:subtle 'i retired to West Palm Beach' brag
Goddamit that is literally a direct hit on where I live. Frick.
Posted on 8/30/19 at 6:22 am to slackster
Levi Cowan
@TropicalTidbits
·
10m
[#NerdTweet] Using vortex-mean soundings from GFS between 8pm last night to 8pm tonight, upper-level winds at 200-300 hPa weaken substantially, which should result in less dry entrainment into #Dorian today and tonight, allowing the eye to organize better.
Posted on 8/30/19 at 6:25 am to lsuman25
Nice we have 2 planes doing Low Level Reconnaissance at the same time.
Posted on 8/30/19 at 6:29 am to lsuman25
Just waking up and looking at things. I was surprised to see them bring the landfall sustained winds back down to 130mph
Posted on 8/30/19 at 6:32 am to Roll Tide Ravens
They still have them at 140
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/0900Z 23.8N 69.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 24.8N 70.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 31/0600Z 25.6N 72.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 31/1800Z 26.1N 73.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 26.4N 75.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 26.7N 78.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 26.9N 80.1W 115 KT 130 MPH...INLAND
120H 04/0600Z 28.1N 81.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
$$
Forecaster Berg
Nevermine you're saying landfall winds.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/0900Z 23.8N 69.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 24.8N 70.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 31/0600Z 25.6N 72.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 31/1800Z 26.1N 73.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 26.4N 75.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 26.7N 78.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 26.9N 80.1W 115 KT 130 MPH...INLAND
120H 04/0600Z 28.1N 81.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
$$
Forecaster Berg
Nevermine you're saying landfall winds.
This post was edited on 8/30/19 at 6:33 am
Posted on 8/30/19 at 6:32 am to liz18lsu
quote:
We have had a wetter summer than usual
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