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Posted on 8/26/19 at 1:01 pm to rds dc
12z HMON doesn't do anything with the system, HWRF has more interaction with the mountains and delays any redevelopment. 12z GEFS splits between killing it off or having in bend back westward.
Posted on 8/26/19 at 1:10 pm to rds dc
This is starting to look like it might affect an LSU game and my flight out of MSY and my trip to Punta Cana
Posted on 8/26/19 at 1:22 pm to rt3
quote:
Reed Timmer
Sounds like a gardening device.
he was part of a very successful show about tornado/storm chasers on Discovery Channel several years back
in fact... in 1 episode he was in NOLA for a hurricane IIRC
I have heard of him....it's just that every time I see his name I think "Weed Trimmer"
Posted on 8/26/19 at 1:26 pm to TDsngumbo
Peej Model run
Posted on 8/26/19 at 1:51 pm to deltaland
Even if that happened its a weak cat 1
Posted on 8/26/19 at 2:26 pm to deltaland
Why are y’all even posting that stuff? The gfs doesn’t even show it making it to Florida and the euro shows it as a depression over about Jacksonville in like a week and a half.
Posted on 8/26/19 at 2:26 pm to Cosmo
As long as the fricker doesn't stall over us I'm ok with a small hurricane or TS
Posted on 8/26/19 at 2:29 pm to TigerStripes06
quote:
Why are y’all even posting that stuff? The gfs doesn’t even show it making it to Florida and the euro shows it as a depression over about Jacksonville in like a week and a half.
So I take it this your first adventure in a TD tropical weather thread?
Posted on 8/26/19 at 2:37 pm to deltaland
more runs make it a gulf possibility. curious to see what they showing in a few days after it makes it towards cuba
Posted on 8/26/19 at 2:38 pm to TigerStripes06
You're right and that is in fantasy land time but it shows the potential if Dorian can survive the next 3 days and gets North of Hispaniola. The pattern would favor a bend back towards the west in Florida and then potentially the Gulf.
Posted on 8/26/19 at 2:38 pm to TigerStripes06
Why do you care. Weather thread are better than 90% of the rest of the crap on the OT.
Posted on 8/26/19 at 2:39 pm to deuce985
quote:
curious to see what they showing in a few days after it makes it towards cuba
The mountains of Hispaniola may tear it apart before it can get there.
Posted on 8/26/19 at 2:44 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
if it gets there. some runs have it too far north to rip it up. could slip right through and be worst case scenario that some runs are showing. then it could slide into gulf. too early to say though. you don't wish stuff like this on anyone...but you kinda hope it gets tore up as it passes over the mountains.
This post was edited on 8/26/19 at 2:47 pm
Posted on 8/26/19 at 2:45 pm to deuce985
quote:
if it gets there. some runs have it too far north to rip it up.
Yeah, that's possible too. It's those little changes that can make or break these things.
Posted on 8/26/19 at 2:52 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
12z Euro Ensembles
Posted on 8/26/19 at 2:54 pm to GEAUXmedic
so anywhere from an east coast storm to mexico?
lots of uncertainty with this one.
lots of uncertainty with this one.
Posted on 8/26/19 at 2:55 pm to deuce985
quote:
if it gets there. some runs have it too far north to rip it up
It'll still get disrupted, even if the actual center just manages to shoot the gap. It just wouldn't kill it like a path directly over would. Assuming the GFS and Euro's set up ends up correct, it'll would be more over the middle-middle north of Florida and die there as no model strengthens it much post island.
Looking at this afternoon's GFS, shear probably wouldn't be a major issue if it makes it to the Bahamas. There are persistent dry air blobs hanging around all the way through.
Posted on 8/26/19 at 2:57 pm to TigerStripes06
quote:
a depression over about Jacksonville in like a week and a half.
Should I evacuate now?
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