re: Hurricane Dorian - Headed to Canada

There are some ensembles somewhere showing it going to mexico

Ignore ensembles and dont live and die on every model run.

The NHC cone is what matters.

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This is not me wish casting but could Dorian move so slow when it turns west or even south west could it miss the weakness from the trough and be steered west into the Gulf by a ridge?

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It'd need to be a lot slower than it's already projected slowing pace and farther south.

The northern trough should induce heights to fall in front of it and results in the ridge shifting south. You can see it comparing the 72 hr and 96 hr Euro from this afternoon.





Look at the 591 lines. They retreat SE. It causes the steering flow to really weaken and orient the flow there more toward the north as it is west of the high. It won't be moving fast, but it would have to go north in this scenario.

I suppose if it was even slower the western ridge could build in a little farther east and he get under it. It's possible, but the north turn looks a whole lot more likely.

while TWC itself is nothing more than a weather hype machine, Dr. Knabb has tons of credibility and experience and this thread proves he is right!! We are paying attention in Louisiana. LOL

All joking aside, I think this storm is gonna knock the hell out of somewhere maybe two some wheres depending on track. I do not like the looks of either the storm progression nor the forecast environment he has to traverse. Once Dorian finishes this ERC I see no reason he won't continue to consolidate and gain strength. Very possible that by morning we are looking at a Category 3 or better storm based on what I am seeing now at 4:13 central time on 8/29/19.

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The NHC cone is what matters.

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And right now the cone of uncertainty is still yuge for Monday. It's like all of Florida and part of Georgia.

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And right now the cone of uncertainty is still yuge for Monday. It's like all of Florida and part of Georgia.

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I could forecast that. It’s bullshite and going to cause the whole state getting evacuated unnecessarily just like Irma.

I hope Disney is spared. Don’t want to have to tell my 4 year old we can’t go after counting down since January.

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There was a 300 minute wait for the falcon ride this morning 30 minutes after opening. frick that.

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No way I’d spend half the day for one ride after paying to get in the park. That’s insane

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This is not me wish casting but could Dorian move so slow when it turns west or even south west could it miss the weakness from the trough and be steered west into the Gulf by a ridge?

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Absolutely it could

Take a hint for once in your life. WtF is wrong with you?