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Message
re: Hurricane Dorian - Headed to Canada
Posted on 8/29/19 at 11:05 am to tgrbaitn08
Posted on 8/29/19 at 11:05 am to tgrbaitn08
quote:
is she of mind and able to get herself out of there
Yeah, she's sharp, but she doesn't drive because of cataracts.
quote:
do you have someone down there that can help?
She has a son that lives more inland about 3 or 4 miles, which ain't shite in a hurricane. Because of his health (Advanced cancer) and her age I assume they will ride it out there as opposed to evacuating with long drives and traffic.
3
Posted on 8/29/19 at 11:06 am to tgrbaitn08
quote:
He can make it there in 12-16, pick her up and be back in La before the storm makes landfall
When a hurricane is coming through, the evac happens. For Irma, this involved sitting on the intestate, moving about 6 mph. People were running out of gas while sitting in traffic and there was no gas to buy. Bring some full cans.
Good luck.
Posted on 8/29/19 at 11:07 am to rds dc
That's not too surprising considering models have been showing with a stronger storm it's going south florida. Euro ensembles showed that yesterday with the stronger ensembles pushing it south since the projections on intensity keep getting higher.
Posted on 8/29/19 at 11:07 am to rds dc
That's not ideal
Posted on 8/29/19 at 11:07 am to rds dc
quote:
South trend
Function of seeing the additional strength I presume?
Posted on 8/29/19 at 11:08 am to slackster
Thanks for the most helpful explanation of the cone I have read. We are on Edisto Island in SC and keeping an eye on this thing. The last few years these storms seem to always come in north of the cone predictions. We got hit by Matthew and Irma. Barely missed Florence last year. This is the fourth year in a row we may get hit.
At least we get to watch the Tigers while we wait.
At least we get to watch the Tigers while we wait.
Posted on 8/29/19 at 11:08 am to rds dc
quote:
South trend
Dang Man! that turn into north florida and up east coast is exactly what Matthew and irma did. Irma had me sweating . I hope Dorian doesnt do the same
This post was edited on 8/29/19 at 11:10 am
Posted on 8/29/19 at 11:08 am to Clyde Tipton
quote:
She has a son that lives more inland about 3 or 4 miles, which ain't shite in a hurricane.
It gets you out of the surge zone.
ETA if you're not near a body of water connected to the ocean.
This post was edited on 8/29/19 at 11:09 am
Posted on 8/29/19 at 11:09 am to Hangit
quote:
Cool. Even 5-10 mph less can make a lot of difference for me.
Doesn't mean much in the long term. It'll be long over (well...in theory) when it gets to the best conditions for strengthening. A replacement closer to landfall though would be nice to see.
Posted on 8/29/19 at 11:10 am to rds dc
quote:Are you saying that image portrays the storm heading back south after landfall? I'm really confused.
South trend
Posted on 8/29/19 at 11:12 am to LSURussian
No, that's the last 3 runs
Posted on 8/29/19 at 11:12 am to LSURussian
Hes f’ing with you
Posted on 8/29/19 at 11:12 am to LSURussian
It’s the same time but multiple runs. The opposite of a single run showing multiple times. (Hour 48, hour 60, hour 72).
ETA: all 3 images are valid at 00z Tuesday.
ETA: all 3 images are valid at 00z Tuesday.
This post was edited on 8/29/19 at 11:14 am
Posted on 8/29/19 at 11:13 am to Clyde Tipton
quote:
She has a son that lives more inland about 3 or 4 miles, which ain't shite in a hurricane. Because of his health (Advanced cancer) and her age I assume they will ride it out there as opposed to evacuating with long drives and traffic.
Meh, I rode out cat 5 Michael and my house is about 3/4 miles from the gulf. As long as it’s not connected to a surge event that 3-4 miles could make a big difference.
Also my experience was to beware of what trees are around. My house did very well bc there was no trees that fell on it. However my neighbors weren’t.
Posted on 8/29/19 at 11:14 am to rt3
quote:
he doesn't need to be in Louisiana at landfall
Well he needs to make it back to Louisiana before Dorian does
Posted on 8/29/19 at 11:18 am to ell_13
Thanks, ell.
Posted on 8/29/19 at 11:21 am to LSURussian
I wonder where Jeff is headed. He was pretty spot on for the location and the legendary blue shed.
Posted on 8/29/19 at 11:23 am to Mattgobear
Is it too soon to tell if Dorian is going to turn north toward GA or continue west into the Gulf after making landfall with FL? If it is too soon, do the weather experts around here have a gut feeling about that?
Posted on 8/29/19 at 11:23 am to PT24-7
quote:
Also my experience was to beware of what trees are around. My house did very well bc there was no trees that fell on it. However my neighbors weren’t.
It's like being the one house standing on the block and saying "Meh, I rode out an F-5 tornado and I was fine. The neighbors weren't, but...."
Posted on 8/29/19 at 11:26 am to slackster
To give an example of the misleading nature of the NHC cone on a slowing storm, see Harvey.
When it was booking it across the Caribbean:
When it was expected to stall in Texas:
The cone makes it appear the storm could go anywhere, but the the 3 day come that's in white makes it clear the storm was heading inland first.
Lastly, the cone does not consider the current track confidence either way. If the NHC is certain it will do something or they are clueless, the cone will have the same radii.
When it was booking it across the Caribbean:
When it was expected to stall in Texas:
The cone makes it appear the storm could go anywhere, but the the 3 day come that's in white makes it clear the storm was heading inland first.
Lastly, the cone does not consider the current track confidence either way. If the NHC is certain it will do something or they are clueless, the cone will have the same radii.
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