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1
Posted on 8/29/19 at 10:42 am to TrueTiger
They're off this week...they played Miami last weekend.
Posted on 8/29/19 at 10:43 am to Duke
Our Florida offices are starting to shite their pants.
Time to bust out that DR/BCP plan.
Time to bust out that DR/BCP plan.
Posted on 8/29/19 at 10:44 am to Centinel
When does the Cajun Navy mount up?
Posted on 8/29/19 at 10:45 am to TigerStripes06
ICON 12z has it hitting around same as 06z, but sooner, then shifting north while over South Florida. Run not over that I can see.
Posted on 8/29/19 at 10:45 am to Centinel
Rumor has it that this pig has developed a double eye wall. RDS? Duke? WWTF?
Posted on 8/29/19 at 10:46 am to BayouENGR
quote:
Why? The bend in the right side of the cone seems more pronounced as the storm approaches land than it was earlier...
That's an illusion/misunderstanding of how the cone works.
The cone is NOT the potential forecast tracks. The NHC makes a prediction for the center of the storm at 12 hour intervals for 48 hours, then at 24 hour intervals thereafter. Once they make the forecast for the center, they simply place a circle around the center fixes that is 25, 41, 54, 68, 102, 151, and 198 nautical miles in radii at 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 hour intervals, respectively. Those nm radii represent one standard deviation from the mean of the errors in the preceding 5 years. Once they make the circles, they simply connect their edges to form a cone.
In layman's terms, the circles represent 66% of the errors in the last 5 years. If a storm is moving quickly, the cone will appear narrow since the circles will be spaced further along. If a storm is projected to slow down, as is the case with Dorian in Florida, then the circles will be closer together, and perhaps even overlap, which gives the appearance that the cone may have a more northward jog in it that really isn't there.
Posted on 8/29/19 at 10:46 am to PorkSammich
quote:
Disney is probably one of the safest places in FL to ride out a hurricane.
All the Star Wars nerds are probably trying to use the force to make Dorian go away. This is their big weekend.
Posted on 8/29/19 at 10:51 am to tgrbaitn08
quote:
Vero Beach is right in the center of the cone.....
My kids great grandmother on my wife's side lives in Vero Beach right on the water. To combine the other themes of the thread, she's 85, doesn't drive and lives alone.
We're all in LA.
Posted on 8/29/19 at 10:52 am to Hangit
quote:
Rumor has it that this pig has developed a double eye wall
Looks like there's a double max on the wind obs. Suggesting there may well be an eyewall replacement potentially starting. Perhaps a breakdown of the inner core from the dry air last night getting filtered into the center and it's fighting a little SW shear. A reorganization wouldn't be terribly surprising at this point.
Would mean a pause on strengthening if this is indeed an eyewall replacement starting up.
You know it's hurricane season when the EWRC discussions get going.
ETA: Image updated, but it did show the double max. I see it on the raw data too.
This post was edited on 8/29/19 at 10:54 am
Posted on 8/29/19 at 10:53 am to Clyde Tipton
quote:
My kids great grandmother on my wife's side lives in Vero Beach right on the water. To combine the other themes of the thread, she's 85, doesn't drive and lives alone.
Damn man, is she of mind and able to get herself out of there or do you have someone down there that can help?
Posted on 8/29/19 at 10:54 am to Duke
quote:
You know it's hurricane season when the EWRC discussions get going.
And thanks to you weather baws, I actually know what that is/means.
Posted on 8/29/19 at 10:55 am to Clyde Tipton
quote:
My kids great grandmother on my wife's side lives in Vero Beach right on the water. To combine the other themes of the thread, she's 85, doesn't drive and lives alone. We're all in LA.
Well.... sounds like you should fill up and head out. Ya gots a sweet old lady to pick up.
Posted on 8/29/19 at 10:57 am to tgrbaitn08
This storm is going to be bad for whoever gets hit. Projections on intensity keep going up. It might not be a big arse storm like Irma but whoever is in the path is going to get hit hard.
Posted on 8/29/19 at 10:59 am to deuce985
12z GFS is running. Tropical Tidbits is getting hammered.
Posted on 8/29/19 at 10:59 am to beerJeep
quote:
Well.... sounds like you should fill up and head out. Ya gots a sweet old lady to pick up.
Yeah he’s got 48 hours.
He can make it there in 12-16, pick her up and be back in La before the storm makes landfall
Posted on 8/29/19 at 11:02 am to Centinel
quote:
12z GFS is running. Tropical Tidbits is getting hammered.
South trend
Posted on 8/29/19 at 11:03 am to tgrbaitn08
quote:
Yeah he’s got 48 hours.
He can make it there in 12-16, pick her up and be back in La before the storm makes landfall
he doesn't need to be in Louisiana at landfall
just not near where the storm is
Posted on 8/29/19 at 11:04 am to rds dc
quote:
South trend
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