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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Dorian - Headed to Canada
Posted on 8/28/19 at 1:59 pm to Duke
Posted on 8/28/19 at 1:59 pm to Duke
quote:
Looking at it, it should end up east of Mobile. I'm really not liking the squeeze setting up between the ridges though. There's potential it gets stuck and drops a flood.
Yea, the Northern stream disturbances don't appear strong enough to really kick system north out to the NE. All models have been showing variations of this steering flow breakdown. It wouldn't take much for it to get trapped under the western ridge and drift farther west. It will be interesting to see the 12z Euro EPS.
3
Posted on 8/28/19 at 1:59 pm to rds dc
Shep/Toddy is hyping the shitee out of now on Fox.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 2:00 pm to rds dc
Some sharps are saying it looks like a similar path as rita/Katrina and Andrew.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 2:01 pm to deuce985
Ugh, both the Euro and GFS have Dorian not move very much once it gets inland. Obviously in different locations but the same idea as it gets stuck between the two ridges.
Euro @ 192 hr:
Euro @ 240 hr:
It's not just a potential major hurricane landfall, but the rain to stick around for days.
Euro @ 192 hr:
Euro @ 240 hr:
It's not just a potential major hurricane landfall, but the rain to stick around for days.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 2:01 pm to rds dc
First, thanks to RDS DC and all the others for what you do, to both keep us informed, and educate us at least some on climatology.
Second, checking in from The Villages, Florida. It looks as if this one may come close to my area. To me, it looks about 50/50 or maybe 40/60 as to whether we'll be in the NE quadrant or not. Any of the pros/semi-pros have a better estimate?
We're far enough inland that it should have lost of wind speed by arrival. but I just checked & cranked my generator to be sure. No surprise, Publix is having a run on bottled water already.
BTW, my immediate neighborhood didn't loose power during IRMA 2 years ago, but much of central Florida was out of power for several days.
Regards and best wishes to all.
THE EDIT: Just read Duke's update, after I submitted the above. If I hadn't been preparing for DORIAN, already, I definitely would be now. That does not sound good. And Duke, thanks to you also for what you do here.
Second, checking in from The Villages, Florida. It looks as if this one may come close to my area. To me, it looks about 50/50 or maybe 40/60 as to whether we'll be in the NE quadrant or not. Any of the pros/semi-pros have a better estimate?
We're far enough inland that it should have lost of wind speed by arrival. but I just checked & cranked my generator to be sure. No surprise, Publix is having a run on bottled water already.
BTW, my immediate neighborhood didn't loose power during IRMA 2 years ago, but much of central Florida was out of power for several days.
Regards and best wishes to all.
THE EDIT: Just read Duke's update, after I submitted the above. If I hadn't been preparing for DORIAN, already, I definitely would be now. That does not sound good. And Duke, thanks to you also for what you do here.
This post was edited on 8/28/19 at 2:10 pm
Posted on 8/28/19 at 2:04 pm to OmniPundit
Going to Rosemary Beach, FL next Wednesday. Is this thing gonna go that way? Will it be gone by then?
Posted on 8/28/19 at 2:07 pm to sec13rowBBseat28
quote:
Going to Rosemary Beach, FL next Wednesday. Is this thing gonna go that way? Will it be gone by then?
You'll get there just in time for land fall the next day. Have fun!
Posted on 8/28/19 at 2:07 pm to sec13rowBBseat28
The 2pm update is out
Posted on 8/28/19 at 2:11 pm to sec13rowBBseat28
For whatever it's worth, a friend works in the maritime industry and he told me that their private weather service is thinking that Dorian will curl North in East Florida and move up the East coast, Georgia, SC, NC. This was as about 8 this morning.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 2:11 pm to sec13rowBBseat28
quote:
Going to Rosemary Beach, FL next Wednesday. Is this thing gonna go that way? Will it be gone by then?
Literally, no one can predict if it will head there at this point. If it does takes a path towards Rosemary, then no, it won’t be gone. In fact, you will be arriving just in time for the party.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 2:12 pm to doublecutter
quote:
For whatever it's worth, a friend works in the maritime industry and he told me that their private weather service is thinking that Dorian will curl North in East Florida and move up the East coast, Georgia, SC, NC. This was as about 8 this morning.
When I used to work offshore we used to get daily private forecasts emailed to us. I wonder how much, if any, different they are than the major models?
What you are referring to sounds like the GFS model run this AM, maybe the 6z?
This post was edited on 8/28/19 at 2:13 pm
Posted on 8/28/19 at 2:14 pm to Duke
quote:
591
Posted on 8/28/19 at 2:14 pm to hubertcumberdale
quote:
Going to Rosemary Beach, FL next Wednesday. Is this thing gonna go that way? Will it be gone by then?
Just in time for the hurricane party
This post was edited on 8/28/19 at 2:20 pm
Posted on 8/28/19 at 2:15 pm to doublecutter
quote:
For whatever it's worth, a friend works in the maritime industry and he told me that their private weather service is thinking that Dorian will curl North in East Florida and move up the East coast, Georgia, SC, NC. This was as about 8 this morning.
Well... a lot has changed since then.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 2:17 pm to GEAUXmedic
Let us believe god damnit
Posted on 8/28/19 at 2:18 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
Well... a lot has changed since then.
A lot will change in the next 24 hours if i had to guess. These early models seem to be nothing more than a novelty for news outlets
This post was edited on 8/28/19 at 2:19 pm
Posted on 8/28/19 at 2:18 pm to doublecutter
quote:
For whatever it's worth, a friend works in the maritime industry and he told me that their private weather service is thinking that Dorian will curl North in East Florida and move up the East coast, Georgia, SC, NC. This was as about 8 this morning.
Seems like that is very outdated info, and this storm is apparently pretty hard to predict.
Don't think we will have a solid grip on it until Friday, and then if its entering the Gulf won't know where its going until Sunday-ish.
Posted on 8/28/19 at 2:19 pm to GEAUXmedic
Geaux you have any idea when the next plane is scheduled to fly into Dorian?
Posted on 8/28/19 at 2:19 pm to hubertcumberdale
We’ll know more in 24-48 hours
Posted on 8/28/19 at 2:20 pm to Chad504boy
quote:
We’ll know more in 24-48 hours
always the go to saying
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