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re: Hurricane Dorian - Headed to Canada

Posted on 9/5/19 at 10:16 am to
Posted by Chicken
Jackassistan
Member since Aug 2003
26912 posts
Posted on 9/5/19 at 10:16 am to
How does one volunteer to help out in the cleanup in the Bahamas?
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36439 posts
Posted on 9/5/19 at 10:16 am to
quote:

Duke, where are you seeing "storm surge levels like not seen in recent years"?


I'm talking about a potential western path that would put the OBX on the east side of the circulation as shown by some models.

The current NHC path would not do that, and that's what the projections are going to be based off of. The NHC projection is the path anyone should expect.

I'm crowing about a less likely outcome vs official forecast but one that would have a much bigger impact.

In short, I'd find myself off the coast from Emerald Island through the barrier islands because of the possibility.
Posted by Loungefly85
Lafayette
Member since Jul 2016
7930 posts
Posted on 9/5/19 at 10:18 am to
quote:

Never thought id see solid EF-2's coming from a Hurricane


Hilda produced an F-4 that killed like 20 something people in 1964. My grandpa passed the storm in a tugboat and saw the whole thing. Said it was huge.
Posted by 50_Tiger
Arlington TX
Member since Jan 2016
42986 posts
Posted on 9/5/19 at 10:21 am to


Drew Brees coming for Cam

/sarcasm
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36439 posts
Posted on 9/5/19 at 10:21 am to
Myrtle Beach looks very likely to get a piece of the eyewall in the next few hours.
Posted by LSUJML
Central
Member since May 2008
51941 posts
Posted on 9/5/19 at 10:23 am to
quote:

Tornado at Emerald Isle this morning caused some major damage.


That’s both amazing and awful
Posted by Ben Dare
A sandy beach with cold water
Member since Nov 2012
113 posts
Posted on 9/5/19 at 10:24 am to
quote:


I'm talking about a potential western path that would put the OBX on the east side of the circulation as shown by some models. 

The current NHC path would not do that, and that's what the projections are going to be based off of. The NHC projection is the path anyone should expect. 

I'm crowing about a less likely outcome vs official forecast but one that would have a much bigger impact. 



Thanks. I understand what you're saying now.
This post was edited on 9/5/19 at 10:25 am
Posted by cgrand
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
46706 posts
Posted on 9/5/19 at 10:25 am to
quote:

How does one volunteer to help out in the cleanup in the Bahamas?

tons of info in the threads HERE
Posted by TideWarrior
Asheville/Chapel Hill NC
Member since Sep 2009
12923 posts
Posted on 9/5/19 at 10:30 am to
Hearing it is back to a CAT 2 can anyone confirm?
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36439 posts
Posted on 9/5/19 at 10:30 am to
quote:

Thanks. I understand what you're saying now.






We're at the point where the wobbles are going to actually matter. We've had a bit of a west one over the past hour or so, probably a little land interaction. Gotta keep an eye on the radar in Myrtle Beach and Wilmington.

quote:

Hearing it is back to a CAT 2 can anyone confirm?


Recon this morning would suggest it's below 115 mph. Category doesn't really matter for those who get the worst weather though. Hurricane conditions are no picnic but it's the water that's the biggest concern.
This post was edited on 9/5/19 at 10:33 am
Posted by TideWarrior
Asheville/Chapel Hill NC
Member since Sep 2009
12923 posts
Posted on 9/5/19 at 10:34 am to
quote:

Hurricane conditions are no picnic but it's the water that's the biggest concern.


Completely agree. As mentioned earlier we were devastated in NC last year from CAT 1 storms. It was all the rain and flooding that was the major issue.
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
129493 posts
Posted on 9/5/19 at 10:34 am to


quote:

Thanks. I understand what you're saying now.
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
129493 posts
Posted on 9/5/19 at 10:35 am to
When is the last time Halifax NS got a hurricane hit?
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36439 posts
Posted on 9/5/19 at 10:41 am to
quote:

When is the last time Halifax NS got a hurricane hit?


From a still warm core hurricane?

Going to need to do some digging for that.

FWIW, they'd probably prefer it still be tropical this time. The extratropical transition is going to be spectacular.

Hurricane Igor in 2010 was the last hurricane to hit NS but was well on the eastern end.
This post was edited on 9/5/19 at 10:46 am
Posted by 50_Tiger
Arlington TX
Member since Jan 2016
42986 posts
Posted on 9/5/19 at 10:44 am to
ANyone wobble watching pretty hard at work?

Posted by LSUJuice
Back in Houston
Member since Apr 2004
18016 posts
Posted on 9/5/19 at 10:45 am to
Is it possible to get that far north while remaining technically tropical?
Posted by N2cars
Close by
Member since Feb 2008
37998 posts
Posted on 9/5/19 at 10:46 am to
Does Columbia, specifically Ft. Jackson, face much of a threat?
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36439 posts
Posted on 9/5/19 at 10:47 am to
quote:

ANyone wobble watching pretty hard at work?


I call it "research" or "homework".

quote:

Is it possible to get that far north while remaining technically tropical?


If it rides the gulf stream, yes. It's more common than I expected tbh.

quote:

Does Columbia, specifically Ft. Jackson, face much of a threat?


Not much more than rain and maybe the lights going out from a particularly stout gust.
This post was edited on 9/5/19 at 10:48 am
Posted by Centinel
Idaho
Member since Sep 2016
44312 posts
Posted on 9/5/19 at 10:49 am to
quote:

Does Columbia, specifically Ft. Jackson, face much of a threat?


I'm currently in downtown Columbia. The only thing we've seen is a small bit of wind and some sporadic rain. It's supposed to clear up in the next hour or two. It took enough of an eastern turn that Cola was outside the heavy rain/wind boundary.

This post was edited on 9/5/19 at 10:49 am
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