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Posted on 9/2/19 at 10:30 am to Hangit
Posted on 9/2/19 at 10:30 am to yurintroubl
Those gusts in Bahamas yesterday reminded me the one I felt in Katrina that basically planted my arse in the ground.
Posted on 9/2/19 at 10:31 am to MrLSU
20’ - 25’ of water!
Posted on 9/2/19 at 10:33 am to deuce985
Looking at some radar loops, I think the ERC is almost done. The eye just kind of expanded on radar. Should see a bigger eye on satellite as we go into the afternoon.
Should have a window to strengthen as Dorian gets away from Grand Bahama (I think baytiger might have mentioned as much a few pages back)
Should have a window to strengthen as Dorian gets away from Grand Bahama (I think baytiger might have mentioned as much a few pages back)
Posted on 9/2/19 at 10:34 am to LSUGrrrl
Freeport under 20-25 feet of water and when he said it was still rising well that’s just horrific.
Posted on 9/2/19 at 10:35 am to MrLSU
Does that just flow back out once the winds stop? How long do you think that takes? That's a shite ton of water.
Posted on 9/2/19 at 10:41 am to Duke
quote:
Should have a window to strengthen as Dorian gets away from Grand Bahama
Isn't that supposed to start around midnight, to 2 am? The air temp, statewide, has dropped a few degrees. Somebody said the cool water is being pulled to the top. How do you think all of this is going to help/hinder it's ability to strengthen?
Posted on 9/2/19 at 10:46 am to Hangit
quote:
Isn't that supposed to start around midnight, to 2 am? The air temp, statewide, has dropped a few degrees. Somebody said the cool water is being pulled to the top. How do you think all of this is going to help/hinder it's ability to strengthen?
Cold water up welling is about the only thing that will hinder Dorian over the next 24-48 hours. Shear and other environmental issues won't impact it until past that window.
Posted on 9/2/19 at 10:46 am to slackster
quote:
That's not really how the cone works, but those areas should be spared the brunt of the storm nonetheless.
Remember the cone is just historical errors. It has nothing to do with the confidneoor lack thereof in a particular storm forecast.
I get it. But we’ve been within the cone of error of this big mofo for like the last 7 days straight. Let me have some enjoyment from this, Slack
This post was edited on 9/2/19 at 10:47 am
Posted on 9/2/19 at 10:47 am to Hangit
Upwelling can and will be an issue. Watch the IR images. If the cloud tops don't get much colder from here or they do cool down then warm again...it's a good sign the water has mixed in some cooler stuff.
Being so close to the gulf stream and having this shallow but very warm all the way down water, it doesn't appear to have been much of an issue yet looking at the latest microwave images.
I expect the upwelling to hinder Dorian once the turn really gets going Tuesday, along with a little increase in shear. Still has a window today to strengthen a bit, maybe get back to 160. In terms of overall strength, the peak was yesterday.
Being so close to the gulf stream and having this shallow but very warm all the way down water, it doesn't appear to have been much of an issue yet looking at the latest microwave images.
I expect the upwelling to hinder Dorian once the turn really gets going Tuesday, along with a little increase in shear. Still has a window today to strengthen a bit, maybe get back to 160. In terms of overall strength, the peak was yesterday.
Posted on 9/2/19 at 10:50 am to Duke
So here is why people get confused:
NHC and people online continually say to not pay attention to center track of cone and that eye can go anywhere in cone.
Local idiots are giving forecasts of winds, rain, etc based upon eye following center track and telling people it will not be all that bad.
NHC and people online continually say to not pay attention to center track of cone and that eye can go anywhere in cone.
Local idiots are giving forecasts of winds, rain, etc based upon eye following center track and telling people it will not be all that bad.
Posted on 9/2/19 at 10:50 am to LSUGrrrl
quote:
20’ - 25’ of water!
it's sitting on top of Grand Bahama through multiple tide cycles. The water has receded only to come back up a few times already.
This kind of repeated force can weaken structures over time... and cause a lot more damage than just the initial hit would indicate.
Posted on 9/2/19 at 10:51 am to Duke
Posted on 9/2/19 at 10:52 am to tiger91
quote:
Does that just flow back out once the winds stop? How long do you think that takes? That's a shite ton of water.
It's typically a quick process, but depends on storm speed. Barry wasn't moving very quick, but the peak to trough surge receded in ~6 hours.
Posted on 9/2/19 at 10:53 am to tigerpimpbot
quote:
get it. But we’ve been within the cone of error of this big mofo for like the last 7 days straight. Let me have some enjoyment from this, Slack
Touche.
Posted on 9/2/19 at 10:55 am to slackster
I’m stunned how close it is to Florida and yet it won’t make landfall there. Nature is unreal
Posted on 9/2/19 at 10:57 am to MrLSU
Wonder where the two dudes are that got stuck in Mexico beach. They will be near landfall.
Posted on 9/2/19 at 10:58 am to Duke
quote:
Eastern portion of grand Bahama is going to be the same. Now waiting to see how Freeport comes out with the center creeping toward it.
I'd imagine satellite observations of the damage on Grand Bahama will be incredible. There will be a distinct boundary where the 100kt+ winds quickly fall to tropical storm strength.
I know we're used to seeing that with storms as they make landfall, but to see that kind of boundary on an island that's only 70 miles across will be shocking.
Posted on 9/2/19 at 11:00 am to slackster
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