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1
Posted on 9/2/19 at 11:02 am to Dick Jacket
quote:
So here is why people get confused
quote:
Local idiots are giving forecasts of winds, rain, etc based upon eye following center track and telling people it will not be all that bad.
In fairness it's difficult to explain the probabilities of significant impacts with such a tight window between a few thunderstorms and hurricane conditions...but the point there is such a tight window needs to be hammered home.
Showing single model runs is not good practice right now. Euro ensambles and their envelope is what I'd show along with the NHC cone (without a center line).
Posted on 9/2/19 at 11:05 am to slackster
Might be hard to tell because the whole island has been surged upon for hours with the tide cycle coming in and out on top of it.
I'm curious after seeing the ERC basically finish on radar is if there's a bit of land that didn't quite get in the inner wall and had the eye expand over them...basically missing the front end of the eyewalls completely while still managing to be in the eye.
I'm curious after seeing the ERC basically finish on radar is if there's a bit of land that didn't quite get in the inner wall and had the eye expand over them...basically missing the front end of the eyewalls completely while still managing to be in the eye.
Posted on 9/2/19 at 11:06 am to IWillWade4U
quote:
’m stunned how close it is to Florida and yet it won’t make landfall there. Nature is unreal
Duke mentioned it when referencing an NHC forecaster, and he's right - the fact that Miami and southern Florida mostly let their guard down 2 days ago while Dorian has crept to within 115 miles of the coast is a testament to modern meteorology. These guys are good, and most of the general public implicitly trusts them. Either that, or most of the public simply doesn't pay attention at all.
25 years ago WPB would still be well inside of the cone, for example.
Posted on 9/2/19 at 11:07 am to Duke
I get all that, but they have a “forecaster” (meaning not a met) on tv basically telling everyone that it *will* follow that track and won’t be bad.
Then they switch back to newsdesk and they are all about get the hell out.
I agree that they need to eliminate the center line from distribution forecasts.
Then they switch back to newsdesk and they are all about get the hell out.
I agree that they need to eliminate the center line from distribution forecasts.
Posted on 9/2/19 at 11:10 am to slackster
Do you think other models should be coupled with ocean temps etc. to better account for upwelling and water temp like the HWRF? You would think it would help the models overall to be coupled while also negating some of the tendency for some models to show wild strengthening.
I know we have a range of models for a reason, and more data never hurts.
I know we have a range of models for a reason, and more data never hurts.
Posted on 9/2/19 at 11:11 am to Duke
quote:
Might be hard to tell because the whole island has been surged upon for hours with the tide cycle coming in and out on top of it.
I forget that the island is relatively flat.
Posted on 9/2/19 at 11:12 am to Dick Jacket
quote:
I get all that
I know you get it. I'm just saying how it should probably be done.
We've got two main channels on BR. One has a two very good (and one is pretty much excellent) mets and the other one has a chief forecaster and a guy everyone hates for telling people it wasn't going to snow in 2017 but it did.
I tell people they should watch the first one when actual weather is on the way.
Posted on 9/2/19 at 11:14 am to Duke
If there has been an ERC, don't you think this will end up being a valuable storm in regards to research in ERC? With the stall this close to major radar sites and with plenty of time to do recon, this may be a storm that helps shed some light on the mystery.
Posted on 9/2/19 at 11:15 am to slackster
quote:
I forget that the island is relatively flat.
To be fair, the earth is flat.
Posted on 9/2/19 at 11:16 am to LegendInMyMind
quote:
If there has been an ERC, don't you think this will end up being a valuable storm in regards to research in ERC? With the stall this close to major radar sites and with plenty of time to do recon, this may be a storm that helps shed some light on the mystery.
Yes, it will be extremely useful to have that data. I'm sure a few PhDs will be built off Dorian.
Posted on 9/2/19 at 11:18 am to LegendInMyMind
quote:
If there has been an ERC, don't you think this will end up being a valuable storm in regards to research in ERC? With the stall this close to major radar sites and with plenty of time to do recon, this may be a storm that helps shed some light on the mystery.
What’s really going to be interesting to learn is how Trump cancelled his trip to Poland and stayed home to steer this hurricane away from Mar a Lago
Posted on 9/2/19 at 11:20 am to tgrbaitn08
I upvoted just for the randomness.
Posted on 9/2/19 at 11:20 am to threeputtforbogie
quote:
Hope they don't think the storm's over since it's taking so long to move.
You know when you're in the eye. Every direction you look, there's a vertical wall of clouds. It looks unnatural even though it's nature trying to kill you.
Posted on 9/2/19 at 11:21 am to tgrbaitn08
The .gifs will be great
Posted on 9/2/19 at 11:23 am to slackster
Are the storm systems off the SC and NC coast at the interface between the trough and the ridge?
Posted on 9/2/19 at 11:23 am to tgrbaitn08
Touché
Posted on 9/2/19 at 11:24 am to Jim Rockford
I’m assuming he’s in the eye but doesn’t look bad at all from his video almost untouched. Construction crane just chilling
ETA: that video link is in Nassau not Grand Bahama island
ETA: that video link is in Nassau not Grand Bahama island
This post was edited on 9/2/19 at 11:28 am
Posted on 9/2/19 at 11:26 am to LegendInMyMind
quote:
Do you think other models should be coupled with ocean temps etc. to better account for upwelling and water temp like the HWRF? You would think it would help the models overall to be coupled while also negating some of the tendency for some models to show wild strengthening.
I know we have a range of models for a reason, and more data never hurts.
In a perfect world, sure, but the computing power gets to be astronomical. Unfortunately you have to make sacrafices somewhere, for now. For example, a fully coupled model might only run once a day. Is that more beneficial than an uncoupked model that can be run every 6 hours? I'm not sure.
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