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re: Hold On To Your Butts! Rt Starting to Trend Back Up in La

Posted on 11/9/21 at 7:41 am to
Posted by stout
Smoking Crack with Hunter Biden
Member since Sep 2006
167213 posts
Posted on 11/9/21 at 7:41 am to
Almost like its seasonal and here to stay no matter what we do

Time to get some horse paste?
Posted by STEVED00
Member since May 2007
22375 posts
Posted on 11/9/21 at 7:41 am to
quote:


Correct. People hanging on these numbers to see what daddy government tells them to do are sad




I think you got it backwards. Daddy Govt is looking at these numbers so that they CAN tell people what to do.
This post was edited on 11/9/21 at 7:41 am
Posted by goofball
Member since Mar 2015
16859 posts
Posted on 11/9/21 at 7:41 am to
quote:

Maybe just being hopeful but the slope of this rise is way flatter than the previous rises.



Between the vaccinated and the people who have recovered from the Delta variant this year....Louisiana has to be pretty darn close to herd immunity.
Posted by STEVED00
Member since May 2007
22375 posts
Posted on 11/9/21 at 7:42 am to
quote:


Almost like its seasonal and here to stay no matter what we do

Time to get some horse paste?




And have Antibodies infusion places loaded into your GPS.
Posted by Tigerfan1274
Member since May 2019
3134 posts
Posted on 11/9/21 at 7:43 am to
quote:

the why is easy. if indicators start to go back up we'll be back in masks. he's already said so.



It would be such a JBE thing to do to discount the Rt when it showed the cases trending down but point to it if it shows cases trending up. FWIW, the Mayo Clinic model still shows daily cases decreasing over the next two weeks.
Posted by bbap
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Feb 2006
96011 posts
Posted on 11/9/21 at 7:44 am to
quote:

Almost like its seasonal and here to stay no matter what we do



not disagreeing but im pretty sure this is a false alarm. % positive staying super low, cases per 100k still dropping.

if in two weeks, i turn out to be wrong, please don't quote this post.
Posted by East Coast Band
Member since Nov 2010
62759 posts
Posted on 11/9/21 at 7:44 am to
Something. Moving. Something. Goalposts
Posted by Jake88
Member since Apr 2005
68140 posts
Posted on 11/9/21 at 7:45 am to
quote:

Vaccine
How?
Posted by STEVED00
Member since May 2007
22375 posts
Posted on 11/9/21 at 7:50 am to
There are some people who think the vaccine can shed to other people.

Look, we are starting to vaccinated a large group of a previously unvaccinated age group. The same age group that has not being adversely affected at all by Covid. It is worth watching to see if anything “weird” happens.
Posted by STEVED00
Member since May 2007
22375 posts
Posted on 11/9/21 at 7:51 am to
quote:

Something. Moving. Something. Goalposts


Looking at the data, apparently Plaquemines is an extreme hot spot at the moment. That very well might be a data issue bc surrounding areas aren’t seeing the same thing.
Posted by bbap
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Feb 2006
96011 posts
Posted on 11/9/21 at 7:55 am to
If you look at Plaquemines parish from the LDH website. Both % positive and cases per 100k dropped week on week.


If you look at Avoyelles the % positive remained the same at .90% but the cases per 100k dropped from 106 to 37 week on week.


Long drawn out explanation of saying i believe Rt is glitched at the moment on the covidestim site.


This post was edited on 11/9/21 at 7:55 am
Posted by Jake88
Member since Apr 2005
68140 posts
Posted on 11/9/21 at 7:57 am to
quote:

There are some people who think the vaccine can shed to other people.
The mRNA spreading somehow?
Posted by Tigerfan1274
Member since May 2019
3134 posts
Posted on 11/9/21 at 7:57 am to
quote:

Looking at the data, apparently Plaquemines is an extreme hot spot at the moment. That very well might be a data issue bc surrounding areas aren’t seeing the same thing.



I would bet it is a data error. They had not reported more than 16 cases in a day since early September. They then reported 178 on Nov 1. Since then, they have reported a total of 7.
Posted by bbap
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Feb 2006
96011 posts
Posted on 11/9/21 at 7:59 am to
Sounds like they are in the habit of doing data dumps that cause false spikes on graphs and charts.
Posted by Oilfieldbiology
Member since Nov 2016
37488 posts
Posted on 11/9/21 at 7:59 am to
Oh my God why do we give a shite about cases? Governor why? What the frick does it matter if we have 4,000,000 active cases of the hospitals aren’t overloaded?
Posted by DandA
Mandevillian
Member since Jun 2018
826 posts
Posted on 11/9/21 at 8:01 am to
quote:

started a max vaccination program of a large previously unvaccinated group (5-11yr olds)




frick. That. This should scare the ever living frick out of parents across the nation. All for a virus that doesn't really hurt anyone under 12.
Posted by WDE24
Member since Oct 2010
54132 posts
Posted on 11/9/21 at 8:01 am to
quote:

The “shedding” hypothesis is somewhat interesting considering we just started a max vaccination program of a large previously unvaccinated group (5-11yr olds)
how do you explain all of the states where Rt started trending up before the alleged mass vaccination program? Is it possible you are using confirmation bias to have any data you read support a theory you think is true?

Fwiw - the covid estimate website has a large margin of error and regularly gets revised substantially over time. It’s hard to really rely on it for any real data until several weeks go by.
This post was edited on 11/9/21 at 8:05 am
Posted by skullhawk
My house
Member since Nov 2007
23015 posts
Posted on 11/9/21 at 8:08 am to
quote:

It would be such a JBE thing to do to discount the Rt when it showed the cases trending down but point to it if it shows cases trending up.


He's already done this. When Rt was going up during the delta wave it was mentioned by JBE. When Rt was cratering he said there were no indications or models indicating the wave was slowing down.
Posted by STEVED00
Member since May 2007
22375 posts
Posted on 11/9/21 at 8:09 am to
quote:

quote:
There are some people who think the vaccine can shed to other people.
The mRNA spreading somehow?


That is the thought. I have also read reports that folks are actually marginally more susceptible to catching Covid in the first few days the vaccine. If you do decide to vaccinate your kid then it would probably be best to do it on a Friday so you can monitor them over the weekend before sending them back to school.
Posted by tiger91
In my own little world
Member since Nov 2005
36703 posts
Posted on 11/9/21 at 8:11 am to
quote:

The “shedding” hypothesis is somewhat interesting considering we just started a max vaccination program of a large previously unvaccinated group (5-11yr olds)


I asked if this and boosters would affect anything ... I'm guessing yes.
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