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Started By
Message
re: Hold On To Your Butts! Rt Starting to Trend Back Up in La
Posted on 11/9/21 at 8:13 am to WDE24
Posted on 11/9/21 at 8:13 am to WDE24
quote:
how do you explain all of the states where Rt started trending up before the alleged mass vaccination program? Is it possible you are using confirmation bias to have any data you read support a theory you think is true?
I am not saying anything. I’m just saying we are about to insert a new variable into the Covid equation so it’s something to watch.
1
Posted on 11/9/21 at 8:13 am to STEVED00
Posted on 11/9/21 at 8:19 am to STEVED00
quote:got it
I’m just saying we are about to insert a new variable into the Covid equation so it’s something to watch.
Fwiw, the covid estimate site had Alabama over 1 a few weeks ago, but I looked back at it and it has been revised down to well below 1 now. Something to also watch as the site plugs in additional data to its formula overtime.
Posted on 11/9/21 at 8:21 am to bbap
quote:
Even the people on the site say it's best to look at the Rt value 2 weeks back because the current value is not reliable.
I wish RottenTomatoes would get their stuff together.
Posted on 11/9/21 at 8:24 am to WDE24
look pal if you are just going to keep repeating my posts in this thread at least give me credit. that's twice now.
Posted on 11/9/21 at 8:25 am to stout
quote:
Almost like its seasonal and here to stay no matter what we do
There isn’t anything to suggest it’s seasonal. For almost two years, we experienced infection waves which is par for the course for novel viruses. And since we don’t have an effective vaccine, those waves will continue for awhile but, if history is any kind of indicator, eventually die down.
Posted on 11/9/21 at 8:28 am to tigafan4life
quote:
We will be back to mask mandate by December. It’s never going away.
Go Away from it then.
Posted on 11/9/21 at 8:28 am to STEVED00
Why is any sane person paying attention to this? Move on. Life is short.
Posted on 11/9/21 at 8:29 am to STEVED00
quote:
Still below 1.0 but slowly rising.
Get fricked pussy. No one GAF about covid anymore.
Posted on 11/9/21 at 8:30 am to STEVED00
Its because we aren't wearing masks
Posted on 11/9/21 at 8:30 am to ArcherTheGreat
meanwhile wide open Florida continues to plummet
Posted on 11/9/21 at 8:31 am to bbap
quote:
quote:
But why?
the why is easy. if indicators start to go back up we'll be back in masks. he's already said so.
Who will be back in masks that isn't already wearing masks still?
Posted on 11/9/21 at 8:33 am to tigergirl10
quote:
Why is any sane person paying attention to this? Move on. Life is short.
Bc our fearless leaders in the state are so I like to keep an eye on it to see what they will do next.
Posted on 11/9/21 at 8:33 am to Steadyhands
quote:
Who will be back in masks that isn't already wearing masks still?
the entire state. are you saying who will heed the mandate? if that's your question then schools.
Posted on 11/9/21 at 8:41 am to bbap
quote:
Alabama actually had their Rt go up to 1.3 last week but it's already been readjusted back below 1
Yeah i follow the numbers almost every day and one day last week or two weeks ago the numbers skyrocketed and made Alabama the only state in the south to rise way above the 1.0 Rt. I guess they found some old positive cases and reported them for a day? It was strange, but like you said the numbers have come back down to the degree it was before the hiccup
Posted on 11/9/21 at 8:43 am to STEVED00
Just in time for the LDHs big child vax push
This post was edited on 11/9/21 at 8:44 am
Posted on 11/9/21 at 8:50 am to bbap
quote:This, and also, when a backlog of cases gets dumped in (as happened recently), it either messes with the data directly, or makes getting an accurate estimate more difficult.
Even the people on the site say it's best to look at the Rt value 2 weeks back because the current value is not reliable.
And to be clear for some of those who had more trouble with charts and graphs back in school, notice that the line on the graph goes from solid two weeks ago to dashed for the last two weeks? That's because the site is telling you that anything within the last two weeks is only a rough guestimate. There is no known or knowable current R, i.e. Rrightnow. You can only determine what it was retrospectively, and then only if you have excellent data (which we don't). Or put it another way: remember a couple of months ago, when that website had the Louisiana Rbackthen down to like 0.63? Go check their graph now; at this time, it shows ours never going below 0.82 (from September 15 to September 30). So take all this with a grain of salt: it's probably a reasonable, good-faith attempt to estimate the covid transmission / reproduction parameters. It's far from an exact science.
And to clarify, one final thing about those little characters after the R: they refer to time. "Rt" means R at some specific time. Maybe the time of interest is now, or maybe it was a month ago, or whatever. But Rt just means the instantaneous R value at the t time, which needs to be specified to be meaningfully clear.
Posted on 11/9/21 at 8:54 am to STEVED00
We had that long thread Pride started months ago and these numbers get changed after a few weeks. I don’t think Rt is the solid indicator/predictor people thought it was.
Posted on 11/9/21 at 9:00 am to STEVED00
Hospitalizations were at 217 yesterday. That is the lowest it has been since the beginning.
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