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Message

re: Francine - Landfall in Terrebonne Parish as CAT 2 100 mph

Posted on 9/9/24 at 10:59 am to
Posted by Ace Midnight
Between sanity and madness
Member since Dec 2006
95638 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 10:59 am to
Les Miles has lost control of the Gulf of Mexico.
Posted by friendlyobservation
Member since Mar 2024
5175 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 10:59 am to
So I know it's hard to project things like intensity, but I was wondering is this worst case scenario where it hits the high end cat 2/cat 3 or is there other possible worst case scenarios on the table that could make it worse? There has to be a limit somewhere based on the environmental conditions is what I'm asking. Like it could take a worse path than it's doing now for intensity levels?
This post was edited on 9/9/24 at 11:01 am
Posted by John Casey
New Orleans
Member since Nov 2016
4132 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 11:00 am to
quote:



I mean any excuse to go to Destin is valid, but evacuating for a Cat 1 is pretty soft IMHO


After I saw Olga drop 3 trees on houses in October 2019 in Mandeville, we leave for pretty much any named storm. With 2 kids under 7, its not worth the risk of having a pine coming down on the house with us in it.
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
177328 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 11:00 am to


Posted by DVinBR
Member since Jan 2013
15748 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 11:00 am to
Betsy, Camille, Katrina, Rita, Laura, Ida, Francine

bad bitches
Posted by tigafan4life
Member since Dec 2006
50982 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 11:01 am to
And it will land at night?
Posted by friendlyobservation
Member since Mar 2024
5175 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 11:02 am to
Think they had tornadoes come through my neighborhood because if you look at the wood line outside the neighborhood all the 100ft. pines just disappeared. Luckily, none of that came the way of the neighborhood. Did us a favor.
Posted by Chad504boy
4 posts
Member since Feb 2005
178973 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 11:02 am to
24hrs for RI.
Posted by LSUfan4444
Member since Mar 2004
57068 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 11:03 am to
Ultimately, the best chance for a stronger storm is developing more quickly than what it has been and staying over water longer (AKA, more of an eastern track). I think you've got a good gauge so far and no need to expect anything more right now but I will always prepare for a >=3 early then adjust backwards than the other way around.

"Worst case" is really tough to get into but if you want to prepare for worst case, don't stop at 3.
Posted by WigSplitta22
The Bottom
Member since Apr 2014
2394 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 11:03 am to
quote:

Deflate the tires and throw a few ratchet straps across the top





This post was edited on 9/9/24 at 11:04 am
Posted by LSUfan4444
Member since Mar 2004
57068 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 11:04 am to
quote:

After I saw Olga drop 3 trees on houses in October 2019 in Mandeville, we leave for pretty much any named storm. With 2 kids under 7, its not worth the risk of having a pine coming down on the house with us in it.


Agreed...reservations in Destin made, tee times at Indian Bayou booked.

The only thing that would get be back before Sunday would be my daughter's XC meet in BR. If that's gets cancelled, we will stay through the weekend regardless.
Posted by SippyCup
Gulf Coast
Member since Sep 2008
7002 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 11:04 am to
quote:

Man, I feel so bad for Donz in Mandeville. They're going to get another few feet of water AGAIN


It was packed when I drove by yesterday afternoon. With that said, if they have not rebuilt that place with waterproof material by now, they will never learn.
Posted by SomethingLikeA
Member since Jul 2013
1232 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 11:05 am to
My 90 year old parents live in Kenner. In the current path-

Will they lose power and get some 20 or 30 mph wind and rain?

They are self sufficient. They have supplies.
Posted by LSUfan4444
Member since Mar 2004
57068 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 11:06 am to
quote:

if they have not rebuilt that place with waterproof material by now, they will never learn.

Yeah, they definitely did a better job with rising water this time around I still just hate to see it.

I'd rather a tornado rip the roof off of Barley Oak then Donz get another 3' of water.
Posted by tigersownall
Thibodaux
Member since Sep 2011
17008 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 11:08 am to
Get them out. I tell my dad this everytime. Then they lose power and he always leaves after the storm. So silly.
Posted by S
RIP Wayde
Member since Jan 2007
172318 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 11:08 am to
Posted by Motorboat
At the camp
Member since Oct 2007
24168 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 11:08 am to
quote:

I run the Hooters on MLK and have a big size lot. I'll send you an email


hooters is OK with someone serving other food in their lot?
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21523 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 11:09 am to
quote:

Something to watch is how organized the system is when it passes near South Texas. The Euro allows dry air to wrap into the circulation, while the GFS keeps the core protected from dry air.

06z Euro



06z GFS



Keeping dry air out of the circulation plays a role in how strong the system can get. A more robust system will not weaken as fast on approach to the coast as it can better fend off wind shear.


12z Global model runs trending weaker vs. 00z runs. It looks like the 12z runs are seeing a bit more dry air intrusion vs. earlier runs.
Posted by John Casey
New Orleans
Member since Nov 2016
4132 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 11:10 am to
quote:

Think they had tornadoes come through my neighborhood because if you look at the wood line outside the neighborhood all the 100ft. pines just disappeared. Luckily, none of that came the way of the neighborhood. Did us a favor.


Had to have been tornadoes in our neighborhood, too.

Woke up in the middle of the night and sounded so bad outside. Walked around the neighborhood the next morning, and trees were down everywhere.

And Olga was just a tropical storm.
Posted by Glock17
Member since Oct 2007
23144 posts
Posted on 9/9/24 at 11:11 am to
Gimme more of that dry air
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