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re: Francine - Landfall in Terrebonne Parish as CAT 2 100 mph

Posted on 9/10/24 at 3:43 pm to
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
14297 posts
Posted on 9/10/24 at 3:43 pm to
4 PM is out early on NHC page...no graphic yet but looks to be only very small shift east. Landfall near mouth of Atchafalaya River.

TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024
2100 UTC TUE SEP 10 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 95.0W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 120SE 100SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 95.0W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 95.3W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 26.9N 94.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 120SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 28.9N 92.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 31.0N 90.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 120SE 60SW 40NW.

This post was edited on 9/10/24 at 3:44 pm
Posted by PTLSU
New Orleans
Member since Jun 2012
1877 posts
Posted on 9/10/24 at 3:44 pm to
Posted by SWLA92
SWLA
Member since Feb 2015
5053 posts
Posted on 9/10/24 at 3:44 pm to
He’s just a younger version of Perillo. Actually worst because Fradella will spew his BS ok stormcast and all the FB Karen’s. Perillo is pretty bad but not as bad
Posted by TH03
Mogadishu
Member since Dec 2008
172004 posts
Posted on 9/10/24 at 3:44 pm to
hurricane watch around the lake now. landfall now back to afternoon. peak down to 80kts so no cat 2 forecast anymore

This post was edited on 9/10/24 at 3:48 pm
Posted by Double Oh
Louisiana
Member since Sep 2008
24206 posts
Posted on 9/10/24 at 3:44 pm to
So basically Morgan City?
Posted by BottomlandBrew
Member since Aug 2010
29891 posts
Posted on 9/10/24 at 3:44 pm to
quote:

Why is Jim Cantore on the Mandeville Lafefront?


Surge pushing north. Rivers draining south. Cantore may need a pirogue on the lakefront when it's all said and done.
Posted by geauxtigers87
Louisiana
Member since Mar 2011
27427 posts
Posted on 9/10/24 at 3:45 pm to
did they move up landfall again?
Posted by PTLSU
New Orleans
Member since Jun 2012
1877 posts
Posted on 9/10/24 at 3:45 pm to
New advisory has landfall as cat 1, not 2.
Posted by lnomm34
Louisiana
Member since Oct 2009
12702 posts
Posted on 9/10/24 at 3:45 pm to
(no message)
This post was edited on 1/12/25 at 10:03 am
Posted by Motorboat
At the camp
Member since Oct 2007
24167 posts
Posted on 9/10/24 at 3:45 pm to
quote:

Clockwatcher68


WTf is this. how long were you waiting to use this gif? It sucks
Posted by ragincajun03
Member since Nov 2007
29214 posts
Posted on 9/10/24 at 3:45 pm to
Perillo saying that GRAF model is shifting East again.

LINK
Posted by LSUWoodworker
St George "God's Country "
Member since Dec 2007
18832 posts
Posted on 9/10/24 at 3:46 pm to
quote:

Clockwatcher68


WTf is this. how long were you waiting to use this gif? It sucks




Nasty hairy pits too. WTF
Posted by nugget
Abrego Garcia Fan
Member since Dec 2009
15734 posts
Posted on 9/10/24 at 3:47 pm to
She’s falling apart
Posted by GeorgeTheGreek
Sparta, Greece
Member since Mar 2008
69181 posts
Posted on 9/10/24 at 3:47 pm to
quote:

Perillo saying that GRAF model is shifting East again.




Shifting further away from BR and a weaker storm than initially predicted.

Going to be some serious coping in this thread that BR isn’t going to get the weather event everyone was excited about.
Posted by Mr Roboto
Seattle
Member since Jan 2023
8153 posts
Posted on 9/10/24 at 3:47 pm to
quote:

Perillo saying that GRAF model is shifting East again.

The thing with that model is it landfalls outside of the cone. Not happening
Posted by SWLA92
SWLA
Member since Feb 2015
5053 posts
Posted on 9/10/24 at 3:48 pm to
And the NHC basically stayed the same. Perillo cherry picks models that he shows the public. He uses the EURO the most for everyday use, but it doesn’t get the clicks that the GRAF does.
Posted by X123F45
Member since Apr 2015
29829 posts
Posted on 9/10/24 at 3:48 pm to
quote:

Nasty hairy pits too. WTF


Ill frick her through you
Posted by Ingeniero
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2013
23016 posts
Posted on 9/10/24 at 3:48 pm to
quote:

Why is Jim Cantore on the Mandeville Lafefront?

Reporting live from Donz
Posted by TheRouxGuru
Member since Nov 2019
14271 posts
Posted on 9/10/24 at 3:48 pm to
Let’s not start beating our chest just yet
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
14297 posts
Posted on 9/10/24 at 3:48 pm to
quote:

So basically Morgan City?


Yeah. Roughly Patterson to Amelia (eastern St. Mary Parish) for eastern eyewall bad stuff at this point.
This post was edited on 9/10/24 at 3:49 pm
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