re: Francine - Landfall in Terrebonne Parish as CAT 2 100 mph

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You can still receive significant damage and week or longer power outages from a Cat 1. It's almost like you guys have never experienced a hurricane before.

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Hoping that the cleaning out of trees and limbs from Ida makes it less bad (Mandeville). I know they’ve done a ton of cutting back and clearing along Hwy 21 west to Madisonville.
Hope and prayer to all.

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Still sort of a big excuse when we were less than 96 hrs from landfall

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How do you want them to initialize the center of a storm that doesn’t even exist yet?

You can maybe make an argument that the cone should be dynamic - wider or narrower based on confidence - but the bitching would still happen. It would turn into the boy who cried wolf if it was too wide.

Average track error @ 72 hours the last 5 years is 100 miles. In the Katrina days it was 195 miles. The cone in 2005 would have stretched from Port Lavaca TX to Grand Isle.

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Where were you?

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Around the corner. Cindy put a tree in my pool.

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So this will be a nothing burger

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The slightest deviation could turn that 37 back to 80. Id stay tuned

Also I just checked a couple other cities in SELA and couldn’t find anything higher than gusts 35-40 so not sure how accurate that is

It was in a 10 am

So what is the latest on how we should be feeling in BR?

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Around the corner. Cindy put a tree in my pool.

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Cindy caught us off guard

Oh no, the horror

Tropical Storm Francine Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024

Satellite imagery and data from the WSR-88D Doppler radar in
Brownsville indicate that the central core of Francine has become
better organized, with the development of a central dense overcast
and increased convective banding near the center. In addition,
reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
show that the central pressure has fallen to around 988 mb. However,
these developments have not yet resulted an increase in wind speed,
as the aircraft-reported winds still support an intensity near
55 kt this advisory.

After meandering last night, Francine is now moving
north-northeastward with an initial motion of 020/7 kt. An
approaching mid-latitude shortwave trough over Texas should cause
the storm to turn northeastward at a faster forward speed during the
next 24-36 h, and this motion should bring the center to the
Louisiana coast sometime Wednesday afternoon or evening. After
landfall, Francine should turn more northward between the trough and
a mid-level ridge over the eastern United States. The track
guidance is generally in good agreement with this scenario. However,
there has been an eastward shift of the guidance since the last
advisory, and thus the new forecast track is also shifted eastward.
In response to this eastward shift in track and southeastern wind
radii, the hurricane warning in Louisiana was extended eastward at
12Z, and this advisory has new tropical storm warnings and watches
for the coasts of Mississippi and Alabama.

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So what is the latest on how we should be feeling in BR?

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Slightly better I'd say. Track seemingly keeps moving east and it's still way out there. Not out of the woods yet obviously. Now us LP bawws are in the eye crosshairs.