re: Francine - Landfall in Terrebonne Parish as CAT 2 100 mph

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Tropical Storm Francine Intensifying: Expected to Become a Category 2 Hurricane....Possibly Stronger

Tropical Storm Francine has significantly strengthened and is now expected to become a hurricane later tonight or early tomorrow. As it moves northward, the storm will continue to intensify, potentially reaching Category 2 hurricane status before making landfall on the Louisiana coastline by Wednesday. Current thinking is somewhere between 2-8PM and landfall near Vermillion Bay. The storm would track toward Lafayette and continue toward Natchez, Jackson, MS

**Key Notes**

-Rapid intensification is increasingly likely over the next 36 hours. The storm could become a Category 2 hurricane with winds exceeding 100 mph before making landfall on Wednesday, but a major hurricane cannot be ruled out. Don't pay too much attention to the specifics. Always prepare for a stronger storm and for it to track closer to your location. Hurricane conditions are expected in southern Louisiana, with Hurricane Warnings now in effect. These will likely expand.

-Storm Surge Threat: A life-threatening storm surge is forecast, with water levels expected to reach 5-10 feet above ground in portions of coastal Louisiana, including Cameron and Vermilion Bay. Surge levels of 3-5 feet are possible from High Island, TX to Cameron, LA, and 4-7 feet from Port Fourchon to the Mississippi River. 2-4 feet of surge is possible in Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas, which could have big impacts for inland rivers.

- Wind Damage: Hurricane-force winds are expected in southern Louisiana by Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions arriving as early as Tuesday night. Widespread damage, downed power lines, and structural damage is likely for the hardest-hit areas. All preparations should be finalized by tomorrow. The last image is an estimated max wind gust product for Louisiana.

- Heavy Rain, Flooding, Tornadoes: Francine is expected to bring torrential rainfall, with totals ranging from 4-8 inches. This heavy rain will lead to flash flooding after an already wet start to September. The water will struggle to drain as long as the easterly and southerly winds keep water trapped. With any tropical system comes the threat of tornadoes. Francine is no exception and quick, spin-up tornadoes are possible in outer rain bands. These will be difficult to track and have little-to-no lead time.

-Coastal Warnings and Watches:
- Hurricane Warning: Louisiana coast from Sabine Pass eastward to Morgan City.
-Storm Surge Warning: From High Island, TX to the Mississippi River, including Vermilion Bay.
- Tropical Storm Warning: Parts of Louisiana from Morgan City to Grand Isle.
- Hurricane Watch: Portions of Louisiana from Morgan City eastward to Grand Isle, including metropolitan New Orleans.
- Storm Surge Watch: From the Mississippi River to the Mississippi/Alabama border, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.

This could very well be a significant storm if a period of rapid intensification occurs tomorrow. Keep a close eye on the forecast and latest updates

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