re: Flood threat on northern Gulf coast

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What models are saying lots of rain north of the lake?

I'm curious what the European model is currently
showing.

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Here is the latest thinking from the NWS:



That is pretty much in line with what the models are showing spatially but a bit more conservative on the totals side. That is usually a good forecast technique, esp. with hard to model systems with lots of convection.

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rds dc

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Thanks for the info, you always come
through.

It's coming in waves. Yesterday was just a primer for today's event. Last night they extended the flood watch west and north to cover BTR. Yesterday's rains saturated the grounds through the coastal parishes, so they upgraded to a flash flood watch. Yesterday I got 3.2". Some areas offshore got 20+. Storms are already firing off this morning over Terrebonne and offshore. CAPE (energy) is already high and with no cap in place the chance of storms is greater. These storms will tap into the abundant moisture (yesterday's sounding had precip water values of 2.78" which according to NWS is higher than most tropical systems we have had). The storms will expand inland throughout the day with precip rates of 1-2" per hour, look for much of the same Friday, although more widespread. This morning's QPF shows 5-7" over the entire area with isolated areas of up to 10". They can't predict the exact locations of higher amounts, so I'd just say 5-7" across the area, with some locations getting up to 10, and some getting 2-5". It just depends where these storms set up and where they train, like yesterday where I got 3", compared to one of my friends 20 miles away who got 0.2" of rain.

So are we talking widespread road and school closures again?

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dukke v

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You seem to know your shite...can you break down your reasoning?

It has been raining steady in Houma since lunch time yesterday.

The majority of the system is staying in the gulf. It's moving almost straight west at a very slow pace. If it starts to move north very much then BR could be in for some big time rain. I see all these models and such, just seems that the southern part of the state will feel the brunt of it more than the BR area.

A very good choice. Wise move.