re: February 2019 Cold blast and southern snow discussion thread

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He does. He’s the most pretentious douche you will see in his position.

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Yikes!

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He made fun of the people calling for any accumulation and referred to it as “Flakemegeddon” during the forecast.

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Hmm, sounds like he was the one with issues...

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Hey, but he is a “Doctor” so who are we to question him.

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Yeah that kinda dovetails.

Sad they think he is above reproach with his title.

Washington Parish is out tomorrow.

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How can they be forecasting a difference of 12 degrees at that time this close to the event?

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Weather apps typically are just feeding model run data into the app. So whatever model they are outputting show 47 and rain. WAFB, or any org that actually does forecasting, is taking all the runs into consideration and their own expertise to create a forecast. That's what the difference is.

Additionally, as alluded to earlier by Kosmo, the temperature gradient is going to be tight on this one. We're in the mid to upper 60s today and we are expected to get close to freezing by sunrise with cloud cover. So how the system is timed by whatever model an app is using will show big temperature differences for a given time.

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I don't know who to believe.

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Here lies the challenge for public forecasters. Modest atmospheric differences can yield big impact differences in a close to freezing scenario like this and it's compounded by the cold coming it at the same time as the moisture. How to explain the forecast without overselling because it's most likely there will be no winter precip down in south Louisiana but also note the uncertainty and potential for big impacts if the cold comes in a little quicker.

Since people aren't making actual decisions based on what I post, I can go into the weeds with the models and have waffly opinions and speak in maybes. A TV Met or the NWS really shouldn't, both in terms of clarity of forecast and orgs needing solid answers to make decisions on closing. The WAFB guys are generally very good at explaining how uncertain an event might be, why it might go one way or another, and compile enough model scenarios to show the spread of possible outcomes.

ETA: For Baton Rouge and really all of south Louisiana, this is a boom or bust scenario. Cold comes early or more moisture is available, and a good inch on the ground isn't unthinkable. Comes in as currently expected, zero impact.

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Here lies the challenge for public forecasters. Modest atmospheric differences can yield big impact differences in a close to freezing scenario like this and it's compounded by the cold coming it at the same time as the moisture. How to explain the forecast without overselling because it's most likely there will be no winter precip down in south Louisiana but also note the uncertainty and potential for big impacts if the cold comes in a little quicker.

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Great line. This can be perfectly summed up with the latest rapid refresh model I just posted. The dendritic growth zone is always more efficient along the 540 boundary. As evident on that model. Accumulations can be a total surprise (or guess) on where that boundary positions itself

Updated Winter weather advisory now includes parishes just north of EBR

HRRR liking BR more

Avoyelles and Rapides both just called it- closing tomorrow.

I hate Weather Underground for absorbing Intellicast. What are others using now?

Livingston Parish Schools released a statement saying they will be open tomorrow

Where’d that come from?