re: February 2019 Cold blast and southern snow discussion thread

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HRRR is probably the most accurate, correct?

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It's the best short range we got to use, but don't bank on it. There's still some run to run differences, highlighting how close of a call it will be between snow and no snow.

The most recent (20z):



Two hours ago (18z):



You think the Alabama forecasters aren't puckering a little bit?

Worse yet, the NAM is all over the map. The follow gif is of the last three runs, from this morning to this afternoon.



We get a dusting, an inch or two, and then nothing. Central Alabama goes from two inches, to a dusting, to nothing. All I can gather from both these short range models is that the details that are going to matter are still in flux.

The 20z HRRR soundings are looking pretty good for BR at least but hard to call anything a trend and going to have to start looking at how the model atmosphere is measuring up to real life.



The snow lovers are hoping the atmosphere actually is what's being shown right here.

Now they are saying Birmingham is going to get 4"

Sauces (hah- seriously, though- trust me)

Good

A girl at work said she'd be willing to take half an inch, anything would be nice

That was great last year

"How can they put chirren on the buses, my baby ain't going to no school tomorrow on nobody bus"

You were right

Could you imagine a OT snowfight?

quote:

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i remember HRRR being the most accurate during the snowfall last year, GFS was barely showing anything then we ended up with somewhat over 3" in prairieville

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GFS doesn't really have the resolution to nail down where the little snow bands form up. That being said, don't ride the HRRR just yet. It's still bouncing on where the snow line is. It's been a good look for the areas NW of BR but we're still on the very edge here.