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re: February 2019 Cold blast and southern snow discussion thread

Posted on 1/28/19 at 11:11 am to
Posted by Nado Jenkins83
Land of the Free
Member since Nov 2012
66452 posts
Posted on 1/28/19 at 11:11 am to
I drilled a curve in Ohio with a -50 with d chill one night. Never again
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147999 posts
Posted on 1/28/19 at 11:18 am to
gotta keep loving GFS fantasy land (note... this is out in fantasy land time wise and should not be seen as anywhere near credible)

Posted by BigB0882
Baton Rouge
Member since Nov 2014
5422 posts
Posted on 1/28/19 at 11:23 am to
For those in Baton Rouge the precip would be over before we even get into the 40s. So it would be similar to this event, everything confined north of us. I am not going to complain this year after the amazing snow we had last winter. We may not have that again for years and years.
Posted by TU Rob
Birmingham
Member since Nov 2008
13562 posts
Posted on 1/28/19 at 11:39 am to
Schools starting to close tomorrow around Bham. Just got the alert for Vestavia.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 1/28/19 at 11:43 am to
After this week, the PNA goes negative and won't flip back good for us until it's probably too late to get snow going outside of a freak event like 93 lining up.

We've had a nice +PNA for a week or two now, the AO went into deep cold mode, just never got the -NAO to really set the stage for the deep south. So much has to line up right down here in the big picture, much less getting that correct low track or a really vigorous ULL blow over at the right time.
Posted by Flanders
Member since May 2008
9964 posts
Posted on 1/28/19 at 11:50 am to
quote:

TU Rob
You live in Vestavia area?
Posted by fillmoregandt
OTM
Member since Nov 2009
14368 posts
Posted on 1/28/19 at 11:57 am to
quote:

Schools starting to close tomorrow around Bham. Just got the alert for Vestavia.




And so it begins
Posted by TU Rob
Birmingham
Member since Nov 2008
13562 posts
Posted on 1/28/19 at 12:09 pm to
quote:

You live in Vestavia area?


Yeah I’ve been in this area since 2004. Had a townhouse in Hoover from 2005-2007 but back to Vestavia in the summer of 2007 and I’ve been in this house since then. I’m in the Rocky Ridge area.
Posted by RATeamWannabe
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2009
26018 posts
Posted on 1/28/19 at 12:11 pm to
quote:

Schools starting to close tomorrow around Bham. Just got the alert for Vestavia. And so it begins


It needs to begin in Tangi parish
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 1/28/19 at 12:12 pm to
Tangi will be talking with the NWS Slidell this afternoon to inform a decision. I doubt they close but with such a northern profile, they actually have a decision to make vs like EBR which looks good to go.
Posted by DVinBR
Member since Jan 2013
15916 posts
Posted on 1/28/19 at 12:16 pm to
"extremely cold arctic airmass"

NWS is only forecasting 28 for a low on wednesday morning in BR

that doesn't seem "extremely cold"
Posted by Off McVoy
Member since Feb 2006
4893 posts
Posted on 1/28/19 at 12:18 pm to
Catahoula Parish closed tomorrow. Just called it.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 1/28/19 at 12:19 pm to
There is an extremely cold artic airmass at play, it's just fricking the upper Midwest. It's the polar vortex we've been watching for since late December, just it's got nothing to force it south.
Posted by YeahYeah
Member since Jun 2016
2248 posts
Posted on 1/28/19 at 12:26 pm to
quote:

The only thing I could potentially see happening is a delay just because of the timing - around 5-7 AM which is when most buses are picking up kids.

EBR doesn't do delays. They'll either close or remain open and my money is on remain open
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
25941 posts
Posted on 1/28/19 at 12:30 pm to
next HRRR might show potential at 4 am huh? close to snow at 3 am currently (unless I'm reading the hours wrong).
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
25941 posts
Posted on 1/28/19 at 12:30 pm to
Posted by LSUsmartass
Scompton
Member since Sep 2004
82755 posts
Posted on 1/28/19 at 12:32 pm to
I think it's showing snow starting between 5 and 6
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 1/28/19 at 12:34 pm to
quote:


next HRRR might show potential at 4 am huh? close to snow at 3 am currently (unless I'm reading the hours wrong).


It's there, but the amounts are meager to say the least. Last run, which had a very similar look got us a nice .02" of snow. Assuming a 10:1 ratio, that's equivalent to 0.02". NAM is a little better with 0.1" but also those are the only models with anything for the Baton Rouge area.

The sounding ain't bad, but it's also too warm on the ground.

Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
25941 posts
Posted on 1/28/19 at 12:34 pm to
As we speak the 17z just dropped. This is as far out as it goes. 11z is 5 AM Central??


This post was edited on 1/28/19 at 12:36 pm
Posted by crazyLSUstudent
391 miles away from Tiger Stadium
Member since Mar 2012
6201 posts
Posted on 1/28/19 at 12:35 pm to
Didn't long range modela nail this one? Thought I remember reading something regarding a polar vortex coming down in late January
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